We are less than one week away from decision time on a few pending restricted free agents, and whether or not to tender them qualifying offers.
The size of the qualifying offer required is based on the player's salary from last year - if it was under $660K it is 110% of what they made, between $660k and $1M it is 105% and over $1M it is 100% of their last salary.
Most of the time making a qualifying offer just par for the course and a starting point for negotiations. That will be the case with most of Ottawa's free agents, as it is around the league. Some will be eligible for arbitration, while most will not reach that stage.
However, the Senators will have at least a couple of interesting decisions to make with 2 roster players in particular, players who it is almost assumed publicly that will indeed allowed to just walk away for nothing, which is what can happen if they are not given a qualifying offer.
Mike Hoffman - Arbitration eligible, requires $2M qualifying offer. No brainer that the Senators best pure goal scorer will be qualified and likely headed for another arbitration hearing unless he either signs a longer term deal with the Senators or is dealt at the draft. Probably headed for a salary more than double the $2M he was awarded at arbitration last year.
Alex Chiasson - Arbitration eligible, requires $1.2M qualifying offer. While it is difficult to allow an asset to walk away for nothing, Chiasson hasn't really put his skillset together in his two seasons in Ottawa. Eight goals and 14 points was even a giant step back from his 26 point first year in Ottawa. The Senators should try to trade his rights for something, anything, at the draft. Otherwise, expect them to let him walk and open up his roster spot for younger and cheaper prospects.
Buddy Robinson - Arbitration eligible, requires $971,250 qualifying offer. Robinson got a cup of coffee with the Senators, and coming off his entry level deal, can probably be had on a 2 way deal, and he could be the beneficiary of a roster spot should the Senators decide to let Chiasson walk or are able to trade his rights.
Matt Puempel - Not arbitration eligible, requires $906,500 qualifying offer. Played a quarter of a season in Ottawa (26 games), with a disappointing 3 points. His 30 points in 34 AHL games gives some hope that he can still put in an offensive role in the big leagues. Probably also destined for a 2-way deal.
Ryan Dzingel - Arbitration eligible, requires a $777K qualifying offer. Dzingel played 30 games in Ottawa, and showed he can certainly fill a lower line role. Will be qualified at that price and won't come in much higher than that on a short term, "prove yourself" deal.
Max McCormick - Arbitration eligible, requires a $720,500 qualifying offer. Like Dzingel, Robinson and Puempel, McCormick is a young player who still has a lot to show whether he is a full time player or simply a fill-in.
Freddie Claesson - Arbitration eligible, requires a $660K qualifying offer. In a moment we will discuss a player who might be allowed to walk, and Claesson might be the guy that gets a full time roster spot as a result. Claesson played a lot of time with Erik Karlsson when he was recalled, but his spot isn't in the top 4, he is more suited to be part of the 5-6-7 rotation.
Cody Ceci - Not arbitration eligible, requires a qualifying offer of just under $875K, which he will obviously get. A bridge deal is the likely outcome for Ceci, who has become a top 4 mainstay and this shouldn't be a lengthy negotiation. I could see it coming in around 2-3 years and $5-$7M total
Patrick Wiercioch - Arbitration eligible, requires qualifying offer of $2.7M Here is where things get interesting. The Sens could have sold high on Wiercioch last summer following a decent finish and good showing for Team Canada at the World Championships. They didn't, and Wiercioch regressed to the point that he was often scratched in favor of Claesson. The qualifying offer is a big gamble, and like Chiasson up front could be a candidate for a draft day trade for an empty puck bag and failing that I don't see the Senators giving him a qualifying offer that substantial to be a 7th or 8th defenseman, which is where he sits even on this team at this point in time.
So the Senators will have until after the draft to see what they still have and what they might have managed to move (or acquire for that matter). It is a tough decision to let a controllable asset to walk for nothing. While Chiasson might be worth hanging onto as a depth forward (who could be buried in the minors without a big penalty to the Senators if that is the route they need to go), but Wiercioch has most likely played his last game in a Senators uniform.
The other big question is Hoffman, who had a contentious arbitration last season and was disappointed with his $2M award, and if the Senators have designs on keeping their top sniper around long term, they probably want to avoid going there again. He will get his qualifying offer but that is a formality and the real work will get going between that point and whenever the arbitration hearing is scheduled for.