The Tampa Bay Lightning and Chicago Blackhawks are getting set for Game One of the Stanley Cup Final, which will start tomorrow night at Amalie Arena. With that in mind, here is Part Two of a two-part preview for the series. In this blog, I’ll briefly discuss three reasons the Blackhawks will walk out of this series as victors.
Three Reasons the Chicago Blackhawks Will Win the Stanley Cup:
Reason #1: Forward Depth At the top end, the talent level is probably a wash, though you could certainly argue that Tampa has an advantage. Jonathan Toews is really good. So is Steven Stamkos. Patrick Kane is a dynamic presence on the ice. So are his “Triplet… counterparts. In fact, four of the top-10 point producing forwards in these playoffs suit up for the Lightning, and Ondrej Palat sits comfortably in the 11th spot. Chicago, on the other hand, has two in the top-10. The trouble for Tampa is that, after the top-six grouping, the forward setup becomes a bit of a mismatch.
As has been said many times by this blogger, Tampa’s bottom-six forwards have really struggled to score in the postseason. Ryan Callahan, J.T. Brown, Cedric Paquette, and Brian Boyle have all scored only one goal thus far, and that’s the extent of the offense beyond Stamkos and the Triplets. In addition to the lack of scoring, it’s also concerning to note that those guys are routinely getting thumped in the possession department at even strength. It’s not good enough.
And, while the Lightning’s bottom-six group continues to struggle, Chicago’s just continues to produce when necessary. They have multiple bottom-six guys who have scored multiple goals in these playoffs. The Lightning’s seventh ranked forward in terms of points scoring has tallied one goal, whereas Chicago’s has scored six. There’s simply a big mismatch once you get beyond the top guys.
Reason #2: Experience Whereas the Lightning’s players might be “too young and too dumb… to realize where they are and what they’re doing, the Chicago Blackhawks know exactly what is going on. They’ve been here before. They’ve won here before. They know what it takes to get that essential 16th win in the postseason.
With that said, I don’t know that I believe that experience can or will be a defining factor in this series. Teams aren’t born with experience. They have to acquire it along the way. This Chicago group wasn’t always an experienced monster. At one time they looked a whole lot like the Lightning, relatively unknown to the rest of the league. They surprised people, and this Tampa group has a chance to do that too. Plus, experience doesn’t put the puck in the net.
Could experience play a role, though? Sure. Chicago’s bench knows how to calm down when the going gets tough. Chicago’s bench knows how to stay in the shade on hockey’s brightest stage. Maybe the situation overwhelms Tampa’s young core. We know it won’t scare the Blackhawks.
Reason #3: A Legitimate Top, Shutdown Pairing With all due respect to Montreal’s P.K. Subban and New York’s (injured) Ryan McDonagh, I don’t think it’s a stretch to suggest that Duncan Keith and Brent Seabrook will be the toughest matchup the Lightning’s potent offense has seen in the playoffs. The Bolts are going up against a legitimate pairing that can shutdown the league’s best offenses. Tampa’s Triplets haven’t had to deal with anything quite like this, specifically defensemen that have the ability to match their puck possession prowess.
Per War-on-Ice.com, Keith ranks second in the playoffs in Corsi-for percentage among defensemen who have played at least 250 minutes at five-on-five*. When he’s on the ice, his team has the puck. That will undoubtedly throw a wrench in Tampa’s game plan, as Keith is averaging over 30 minutes per game. It won’t be enough to simply find a way to work when he’s not out there; they’ll need to beat him, and that has proven difficult to do for every team Chicago has faced.
The Lightning’s offense has terrorized opponents all year long, so it will be very interesting to see how the guys respond to this very real and daunting challenge. Tampa’s hope has to be that their blinding speed wears down Chicago’s overused top-four guys. If that doesn’t happen, it could be difficult for the Bolts to create offense consistently. And, as outlined above, Tampa’s forward depth (or lack thereof) doesn’t really allow for Stamkos and the Triplets to have off nights too often.
*(For interest’s sake, it’s worth noting that Victor Hedman sits fourth on that list. That puts him ahead of every Blackhawk defender but Keith. Anyone still doubting his credentials as an elite defenseman isn’t paying attention.)
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For those of you who missed “Three Reasons the Tampa Bay Lightning Will Win the Stanley Cup,… you can find it right here.
As always, thanks for reading!
Michael Stuart has been the Tampa Bay Lightning writer for HockeyBuzz since 2012. Visit his archive to read more or follow him on Twitter.