Follow @jaeckel The Blackhawks had a day off recently, and some conversation on my message board thread that day got me thinking.
Could the Hawks surprise everyone this summer with a fairly more significant and unexpected reshuffling of their NHL personnel?
I mean, something beyond a couple of expected salary dumps?
And I will also tip my hand a bit in terms of what I was hearing at the deadline—as a prelude to the summer.
Going back a little over a year, to the aftermath of last year’s trade deadline, I was told then that the Hawks had spoken with Vancouver about Ryan Kesler, and would revisit those talks before the draft.
Although there are some out there who refuse to believe those talks took place (just as there are likely still some tribesmen somewhere in the Amazon who believe the world is flat), the Hawks did talk to Vancouver about Kesler in June. And they did pursue him.
At this year’s deadline, the same source told me to watch this summer for renewed talks that apparently went on quietly at the 2015 deadline about a rather significant current Hawk and a couple of teams (one from the East, the other from the West).
And this was soon confirmed by another independent, quality source.
There was a collective sigh of relief from a lot of Hawk fans when it was “announced… the other day that the salary cap might actually rise a bit this summer. No team has spent more recently on its stars, and no team has more wrapped up in its two premier players than Chicago does.
But there are a couple of other potential factors that fans might be ignoring.
One is the quality of this year’s draft, and, in particular, 1-2 players at the top of it: Connor McDavid and Jack Eichel. Probably not since 2004, when Alex Ovechkin and Evgeni Malkin went 1-2, has there been this much talent right at the top of a draft. McDavid, especially, seems to be getting talked up as a possible generational talent. And the rest of the 2015 draft looks exceptionally strong.
The other issue is that the Hawks, unlike ironically many of their fans, might not be content with the conventional “wisdom… of salary cap entropy around their current roster.
Meaning: the Hawks might not want to continue to throw more and more money at current stars, while filling in the lower half of the roster with prospects (most drafted late in their respective rounds) and retreads like Michal Rozsival or gambles like David Rundblad.
Because everyone knows where that inevitably leads: the second tier and eventually mediocrity. So this summer potentially presents an interesting set of choices to the Chicago Blackhawks. Now, everyone and their brother has mock traded Bryan Bickell and Patrick Sharp. And if I had to bet, one or both will likely be out of Chicago by July 1. But in light of a lot of teams wanting to accumulate draft picks while shedding salaries, it might not be a “sellers… market for the likes of Bickell or Sharp, both players with significant salary left on their deals, and both with some scratches and dents.
The Hawks can likely deal either, but fans might not like what they get back too much (think along the lines of Brian Campbell for Rostislav “Remember Him?… Olesz, although perhaps not to the same degree of absurdity).
The Hawks can dump salary. But don’t expect much, if anything, back.
They moved Dustin Byfuglien, Andrew Ladd, Kris Versteeg, Campbell and Troy Brouwer over the summers of 2010 and 2011.
And what they have to show for all that today amounts to . . . Philip Danault and Gustav Forsling. That’s it.
That’s the problem with salary cap entropy: it never leads anywhere good.
So the question becomes, do they want more from a sell-off this summer? The answer is, they should.
Now, the following rumor is not one I necessarily buy into, but it is out there: whispers that were Buffalo to get the first overall pick (McDavid), the Hawks might deal Patrick Kane and his mega contract back home to Western New York. I don’t buy it, but I also heard it from a good source. Another interesting situation is the possible emergence (not to mention the extension of his contract) of Scott Darling. No one, or very few people, dispute any more that Corey Crawford is a really good NHL goaltender. The question, however, the Hawks might be asking themselves is—with their blueline—is there that much dropoff in production from Crawford to Darling next season? Because there would likely be a lot of suitors for Crawford, with quality return, and $5+ million in cap hit reduction.
But the Armchair GMs out there constructing lineups under a projected $71million cap—replete with names like Johns, Danault, Teravainen, Hartman, Paliotta—need to understand something. If you’re letting Johnny Oduya and Michal Rozsival go, and replacing them with Johns and Trevor van Riemsdyk and say David Rundblad, look out, because a lot of rubber is going hit the back of your net next year. And a lot of strain is going to be put on Crawford, Brent Seabrook, Duncan Keith and Niklas Hjalmarsson, perhaps shortening their careers.
Everyone and their brother has Oduya off the team next year, and while that could be the case, at least one quality source has maitanined for over a year now that the Hawks have no intention of letting him go, and Oduya would like to stay in Chicago as well. But it won’t be that cheap either.
If you think Danault is going to just replace everything Marcus Kruger does next year, that is incorrect. And then there’s an even greater workload for Jonathan Toews, taking draws in all situations.
This would be a different, and for at least a while, not as good, hockey team.
Granted, somewhere along the line, much of the fanbase has been prepared for a bloodletting this summer and the matriculation of half the Ice Hog roster to Chicago next fall.
But maybe the Hawks themselves know while all that looks good on paper or a computer screen right now, the reality of it next year and going forward might be a bitter pill for the same fanbase and the longterm competitiveness of the club.
My point being: long-term winning organizations in sports and in business know what to do with Sacred Cows. Grill some steak.
All for now,
JJ
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