The Future, Ladd, Prospect Camp and Off-Season
Quick update- Postma signed a 2-year 887,500/yr deal today with the Jets. What's curious is Postma played 4 games since January 1 and only 1 game after Jan 8th on March 14th. The question remains why sign for two years if you are barely being used? The previous season he played in 20 games and last year it was 42.
When you look at the fancy numbers it's a pretty good value for a guy who is far from a liability to his team. I wonder is something is up in the future because that's a lot of RHD- hmmm.
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The dust has basically settled from the 2015 NHL Draft and, Free Agent Day and the Jets prospects camp but yet fans and some media are still a flutter on various matters that seem unresolved. Right now the Jets have a forward lineup that looks as follows:
Ladd Little Wheeler Stafford Scheifele ??? (Ehlers) Perreault Lowry ???? Burmistrov Copp Thorburn
Peluso, Halischuk Fraser
There appears to be some duplicity or holes in this group depending on how you look at it, at the very least there are some big questions. While some believe Ehlers is a LW he played on his off-wing almost exclusively and could he be a reasonable replacement for the departed Michael Frolik, and at this point let’s think offensively?
It begs another question- can Stafford slip over to the right side? Some reports suggest he can.
@Teddier Prior to Wpg he was mainly a RW, can play either side and is a RH shot
— Jaxon James (@McJags) July 10, 2015If Stafford moves over to the right side what does that change? Alexander Burmistrov is a centre or LW and he could move up but would Perreault not be a better option? Does usage on the 2nd line make sense if the tandem of Perreault and Lowry should stay together? The adjustments could make the line up look like this:
Ladd Little Wheeler Burmistrov, Scheifele, Stafford Perreault, Lowry Ehlers Halischuk, Copp Thorburn
In this scenario it could be reasoned that head coach Paul Maurice would want to measure how well Perreault fits on second line and Burmistrov on third in training camp before looking at the above version. Regardless of the outcome the dynamic has changed and with no deals for Stempniak and Tlusty on the horizon it’s fair to ask, will fans see a weaker Jets team to start the season?
The other topic of conversation in Winnipeg is the upcoming contract, or lack thereof, for Andrew Ladd. Some would suggest that it should have been done by now or at least conversations started but so far no news. Gary Lawless of the Winnipeg Free Press floated out the idea that Ladd’s next deal in Winnipeg would be ‘6 years for 6-ish million’ via Twitter.
That’s a lot of money for a guy who will enter that deal at age 30. The key for any player at this age is trying to predict with some accuracy how they will perform in the future. For that we can go to Hockey Reference. Below is a list of players from 2000-01 season aged 30-36 who have scored 23 or more goals and 25 or most assists, and played in 80 or more games.
If you look at the list by oldest to youngest only 5 players did it at age 36 and 7 at age 35 but look at the names. Is Andrew Ladd going to fall in the category of those players? Nothing on that list would tell us if Ladd is in that echelon but predicting that very important likelihood is really important when considering a 36 million dollar deal. What might be fair is a deal that pays Ladd more up front and declines slightly so 4 years at 25 million with 7, 7, 6, 5. In fact it would be a lot like the Sedins deal which is an interesting comparison. If you look at that list Daniel Sedin appears just once in 2010-11 at age 30. Is Ladd worth the same risk as the Canucks took on the Sedins? Some might argue he’s a better risk if you look at what has happened since the Sedins latest deal, but not all the outcome is their fault. Put simply Ladd is a similar question to Jets as Sedins were to Canucks.
Prospect camp came and went but not without fans expressing admiration and excitement. Perspective is required though. These players were playing against their peers not grizzled NHL vets so fans need not read too much into the event. What these camps are designed to do is provide context, support, education and a bit of carrot dangling for prospects. They are there to teach and educate young players about what it means and takes to be a professional hockey player, not a talent showcase. The Jets will certainly learn a lot about the players who came but what will be more telling is which players come back to training camp better because of what they learned at Prospect Camp- that’s the real litmus test.
So what happens the rest of the off-season, as many fans ask ‘is this it?’ It would be hard to know what more could be done but other than possible contract extensions for Ladd and or Buff it seems unlikely any deal/signing gets made before training camp. There’s some reasoning to that even if you really want Tlusty or Stempniak back. As the summer wears on the Jets can try and get depth at a discount as players may be prepared to take discounts to stay in the league as opposed to going overseas. I’d be surprised if Chevy didn’t do something but I’d be more surprised if it was before any Ladd or Byfuglien news, at least if that something is to be significant.
Summer days are here so things will get a bit lazy on the blog- hit me with some ideas if you want to discuss things. One thing for sure we’ll dissect the Frolik mess and how/what went wrong as bits of info are starting to emerge.