Breaking News:
Maloney says Hanzal will have procedure on back next week. Likelihood of return this season "remote."
— Sarah McLellan (@azc_mclellan) February 12, 2015This is good news since a) the Coyotes will finish lower without him b) they are likely now not going to trade him and c) maybe this is what he needs to be a more constant presence in the lineup.
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I don't know why - and full disclosure, it could just be perception - but every year there seems to be a phrase or a line of thinking that gets repeated so often it becomes kind of a cliche of the moment.
I don't precisely mean a catch-phrase, but more a line of thinking or a philosophy that is summed up catch-phrase-style, if you get my drift.
Right now, for me, this phrase is some variation of "That's more likely in the summer." Of course, this ignominious and ubiquitous phrase is said in regards to player movement and trade rumours.
If you spitball a possible trade destination, some pseudo-hockey expert will pop by to tell you that that can't possibly happen until the summer.
If I have to hear one more time how Phil Kessel, Dion Phaneuf and Keith Yandle are "more likely to move in the summer" I am going to have a full-fledged breakdown. This annoys the hell out of me, in case I'm not making myself clear.
The NHL has a salary cap. The NHL already has about 12 teams eliminated from post season contention. In the summer, teams are optimistic. Teams have more money, more to spend and they are fresh off either a massive disappointment or success. There is a draft and UFA day and they are usually back-to-back, and one of them involves all the GMs in the game meeting in a single place - all of which is conducive to player movement.
So, when a person says that trades are more likely in the summer, it's a little like saying your favorite day of the week is Saturday, that you think Scarlett Johanson is attractive, are afraid of spiders, heights or death, or that you think puppies are cute, like the Beatles or would enjoy having a bit more money.
It is kind of obvious.
It is basically the hockey equivalent of discussing the weather or, more accurately, saying "hot enough for ya?"
Or, like when someone "has a feeling" your baby will be a boy.
Ummm, there's like a 50/50 chance either way and only two options and no one will remember if you're wrong, so it's more than just a little off-putting.
Basically it's annoying as hell, totally obvious and does not need to be vocalized. Like a Borat impression, you should probably just keep your opinion of when you think a trade might go down to yourself.
I mean, think about it: A trade either happens in the season or in the off season - only two choices. The off season is clearly and undoubtedly the time when most deals will happen.
But, if that was all it was, I wouldn't write this up. I hate the fact that people add the suffix "gate" to every single scandal and I also hate that I know who Larry the Cable Guy is, or that millions of people who are allowed to vote spend time watching a bunch of racist, homophobic duck hunters, but I'm probably not going to write an article about those things.
No, the reason it bugs me is that there is also an assumption buried behind the idea that suggests you'll actually get more value for a player if more teams can bid on his services. The prevalence of the phrase and all the thoughts behind it suggest that this isn't just writers, fans and TV guys who think this - there are probably NHL GMs with the same misguided idea.
And, sure, I'll admit it: it seems like common sense. To say you can get more for a guy with less teams to offer him to seems counter-intuitive. But that doesn't' mean it isn't also correct.
Because here's the thing: You really only need two teams to want the same player to drive the price up. After the initial spike in possible return, even five more teams probably aren't going to raise the price all that much more.
Secondly, if you're looking at moving a guy with a big contract, the amount of teams that will suddenly find themselves in position to get him in the summer isn't going to be drastically increased. Maybe a few more, but it's not like you're going to go from two teams interested in player X to 29 and have a league-wide bidding war.
Finally, any value that would actually be gained by having a wider market in the summer is offset by the fact that a team acquiring a player now gets him for one extra year of playoffs. Furthermore, more teams will be more desperate to upgrade their team at this time of year than any other and the chance of overpaying is, I would estimate, far greater right now than in the summer when all your prospects look amazing and you can envision best-case scenarios for your whole roster.
Take keith Yandle for example. There are currently 15 teams in the NHL that could take on his salary without shedding any. Nine of those teams are at or close to a Playoff spot. (Actually, since most of the season will be done by the deadline, Yandles Cap hit won't even be the full $5.25 million at that point, so even more teams could conceivably afford him.)The Coyotes have $13 million in cap space and could conceivably take back a bad contract from any other team in the NHL in order to make a deal work.
Or lets say the Leafs actually do want to move Kessel. As long as the Leafs took back a $3 million dollar contact, the exact same teams who could theoretically take a run at Yandle right now could also go for Kessel, in season, tomorrow, without a trouble.
And consider this also: the East is wide-open. Any team that can make the Playoffs has to like their chances at running the table. If Boston is the 8th seed, are they even really an underdog against Montreal or Tampa? I doubt it and if so, only marginally. So, any team in the East could easily think this is their year.
Not saying it's likely, but if you're Tampa, Vasilevksi and Drouin might be great in three years, but Phil kessel or Keith Yandle could put you over the top in terms of winning the Cup this year - it might make sense, right now and not so much in the summer.
Then we have the Kane/Myers trade from yesterday. Everyone and their Uncle Chuck said nothing like that could go down during the season. Add that to the fact that there really isn't any real, logical, concrete reason to believe you can get more value for a player in the summer and what you have is an annoying, oft said myth.
An easy answer for hedge-their-bets analysts to avoid any kind of bold, interesting or original conversation.
Yes, a trade is more likely in the summer, just like 30 degree weather and your chances of using an air-conditioner. But to pretend you can get more value for a player then makes very little sense at all.
Thanks for reading.
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The Coyotes have returned Chris Summers and Brandon McMillan to Portland and recalled Brandon Gormley and Jordan Martinhook. Mark Arcobello will play his first game tomorrow when San Jose comes to town.