The Final 10
Start your countdown Jets fans as today renewal notices for season ticket packages arrived and it’s either those get cashed or playoff deposits. However, it might take 10 games to figure it all out.
To complicate things the Jets future may also depend on what other teams do, actually that’s a certainty but if the Jets go 6-4 down the final stretch positioning will only be affected by other team’s results. To break it down further don’t think about wins and losses, consider how the Jets will earn 12 points.
Why 12?
Right now the Jets are sitting at 86 points in 8th place in the west, holding that last wild card spot. LA is 4 points behind with 1 game in hand as you can see below.
Now look at the schedules remaining for each team. This is a great image that Patrick Williams tweeted out. I did not save the name of the creator but he/she deserves much credit.
Edit: I was given the link from comments so click HERE
As can be seen above the Kings have 5 road games starting tonight and 6 of their next 11 games are against teams currently in playoff position. The Jets are going up against 8 teams in playoff position in their next 10 games. If the Jets earn 12 points they finish with 98 and that means LA would have to earn 16 points where they would be tied and move into 8th spot based on ROW. ROW is ‘regulation or overtime wins’ and is what is used as the tie-breaking measure.
The other variable here is Calgary. What if the Flames stumble down the stretch? The have 6 away games and only play 4 playoff teams including the Jets as the final game of the season. If the Flames go 4-6 for 8 points they would finish with 92 and LA would jump past them with anything higher meaning the Kings could 5-5-1 and squeak in.
That would push the Flames out the Kings into third in Pacific and the Jets and Wild would be the Wild card teams as long as their points per game rate holds for final 10 games. But now Jets fans can also consider the Wild…
They too like the Jets play 8 games against playoff teams and that includes a game between the Jets and Wild. They have 5 home and 5 away games and are only 1 point up on Winnipeg with 87. If the Wild go 5-5 for 10 points the Jets would move ahead should they manage 12 points. If that were to happen, it matters not what LA and Calgary do as the Jets would certainly control their own destiny and make the post season.
So how do they do it?
A game by game breakdown of how the Jets can earn 12 points follows.
@Edmonton= 4-3 win for clean 2 points @Vancouer= 3-2 OT loss for 1 point
Montreal= 3-1 win for 2 points Chicago= 4-2 loss for 0 points NY Rangers= 3-2 SO loss for 1 point
in 5 games there is a 6 points The key for the Jets is never getting so far behind in a game that they cannot salvage a point. This aspect is very important as the team with the lowest ROWs needs points first because the deficit may be too large to equal ROWs.
Vancouver= 4-2 win for 2 points
@Minnesota= 3-1 loss @St Louis= 3-2 OT loss for 1 point @Colorado= 4-2 win for 2 points
Calgary= 4-2 win for 2 points
That’s 7 points plus 6 in the first 5 games for a total of 13 and gives the Jets a 1 point cushion. We can add in the goal scorers and starting goalies too if you want to really see how great this crystal ball is. The point here is this can be done but the Jets have to make it happen and down the stretch with backs against the wall has not been their strong suit in previous years.
That could change though with 3 of the top 5 players on the team coming back within the next week or so. While there is no definitive work on Byfuglien, Little and Perreault it is expected they are to return soon and how much difficult do the Jets become for the opposition with these players in the line up?
The task starts tonight in Edmonton and the Jets have to believe that the NHL’s first star of the week, Ondrej Pavelec gives them the best chance to win and get that first two points. It makes sense to start the hot hand and give Hutch the next night in Vancouver, the second game in two nights and one Pavelec has traditionally performed poorly in when tasked.
Cliches reign this time of year and for the Jets it’s one that’s been said recently in this space before- ‘win and you’re in’. Think of the challenge this way…the Jets have played this season with a 1.19 pts/gm pace. If they continue that pace they would finish with 97.8 points or 98 and certainly be playoff bound. They don't have to do anything different other than play the way that has given them success, that is a bit different than in previous years and perhaps a reason for fans to be optimistic.