In and of itself, a team's preseason record is meaningless. So is what happens in any individual game, no matter how dominant or ugly it may look. It's when problems remain uncorrected over an extended period of time that there is cause for concern.
After reaching the Stanley Cup playoffs in 2013-14, the Dallas Stars missed postseason play last year despite being the second highest-scoring team in the NHL and the top offensive squad in the West. The Stars missed out because solid team defense and consistently reliable goaltending are the keys to sustained success in the modern-day NHL; their own team defense was porous and the goaltending was inconsistent.
The Stars' team 3.13 goals against average ranked tied for 25th in the NHL. Among the clubs ranked in the bottom 10 in goals yielded, only one (the New York Islanders) reached the playoffs. Actually, the team tightened up its two-way game down the stretch to finish where it did. For much of the season, the team GAA hovered around 3.30 and ranked neck-and-neck with Edmonton and Buffalo as the worst in the NHL.
At least in the preseason, things have reverted to the way they were three-quarters of last season. That is no doubt concerning to both coach Lindy Ruff and general manager Jim Nill.
With one notable exception -- the addition of Johnny Oduya and the subtraction of Trevor Daley -- the Dallas Stars' blueline is the same as it was last year. The forward group has been supplemented by the addition of veteran standout Patrick Sharp but the nucleus is the same. In goal, veteran netminder Antti Niemi was brought in to compete with longtime undisputed starter Kari Lehtonen for playing time.
Dallas went 1-6-0 in the preseason. While unsightly, the exhibition season record by itself is not cause for alarm. However, it would be foolish to simply dismiss everything that happened in the preseason, because there were disturbing signs late in the preseason -- by which time, the Stars were icing reasonable facsimiles of their NHL starting lineup as were opponents -- that the problems that doomed Dallas to missing the postseason are still issues heading into the start of the 2015-16 season.
The Stars' preseason ended on Saturday with a 4-0 road loss to Chicago. The game was competitive for two periods (Dallas trailed 1-0) before a three-goal outburst by the Hawks put the match out of reach.
Dallas' inability to score regularly during the preaseason, especially on the power play, is not a big concern. This team has plenty of firepower, and should once again be among the NHL's top-scoring clubs. The team should win its share of 5-3 type games in 2015-16.
The real concern is that the team defense -- forwards being every bit as culpable as the defensemen-- was still below-average in the preseason. Coverages collapsed at the worst possible times. There was too much careless play with the puck in dangerous areas of the ice, resulting in turnovers that frequently ended up in the back of the net. The goaltenders struggled to come up with momentum saves, and there were too many goals allowed on stoppable chances. Worst of all, things had a way of snowballing downhill after the team was in position to seize winnable games.
Lehtonen had an atrocious preseason, posting an .821 save percentage and 4.57 goals against average in three starts and four overall appearances. In Chicago on Saturday, Lehtonen played the third period and yielded three goals on 11 shots. One of the goals was downright ugly, and another was at least potentially stoppable.
Niemi, who stopped 17 of 18 over two periods in the preseason finale, had an unremarkable preseason in his own right (3.00 GAA, .867 save percentage in three starts). However, his preseason arc was more in line with a normal "veteran's preseason" of shaking off the rust and rounding into form by the final game. Of the two veteran Finnish netminders on the team, Niemi is the more deserving of starting on opening night against the Pittsburgh Penguins.
As the team gets ready to start a new season, the types of breakdowns that led to the goals the Stars gave up in the preseason finale will have to significantly curtailed to enjoy any sort of consistent success. These sorts of plays were distressingly familiar last season:
1. A 50-50 puck battle is lost in the faceoff circle, and the opponent's most dangerous sniper gets to the net uncovered.
2. The Dallas goaltender (Lehtonen in this instance), allows a terrible short-side goal on a seemingly harmless play.
3. The Stars initially lose the puck at the attacking blueline (often a dangerous area for transitional chances), but then recover it in the defensive zone. That is promptly followed in rapid succession by a sloppy own-zone turnover, loose one-on-one coverage and a lack of a needed save on a shot where the goaltender at least had a chance.
If these were isolated instances, it could be chalked up simply to being a bad night. These things happen from time-to-time even among elite teams. Especially during the preseason, scattershot play is often par for the course. However, when these things happen too often and look like a microcosm of the exact same sorts of problems that plagued the club a year ago, concern is justified.
Concern need not equal panic. It simply means there are a host of areas for which the Stars need to take corrective action by to get off to strong start this season and get back to the way it played in the final quarter of last season. However, it would be foolish for anyone to simply dismiss the team's seemingly ongoing defensive issues as just the product of preseason hockey. The problems will not magically cure themselves.