After a hum-drum first period, the game between the Minnesota Wild and the Ottawa Senators turned in the second, with fireworks in terms of goals and chances. Both teams had opportunities, and Minnesota cashed in first on a pair of Matt Dumba goals, the first on a nice slapshot from the faceoff dot and the second one sneaking in from the point unchecked and tapping home a nice feed past Andrew Hammond.
Undaunted, Ottawa clawed back into the game, starting just 28 seconds after Dumba's second goal, as Mika Zibanejad whirled and fired a shot that fooled Devan Dubnyk. Just over 3 minutes later Bobby Ryan got the game back to even as he one-timed a nice pass from Mike Hoffman past Dubnyk. That was all the scoring in real play as the third was exciting end to end action, and the pipes behind Dubnyk were ringing like the Bells of St. Mary's as the Senators hit iron on more than one occasion.
Alas, overtime solved nothing and the game went to a shootout, where Charlie Coyle's 5th round marker was the difference as the Wild took the game on home ice.
It was a battle of two of the most unlikely stories of the season as the NHL player of the month for February (Dubnyk) barely outdueled the NHL player of the week for last week, Hammond. Both goalies were stellar with Hammond shining early on and Dubnyk showing some late game heroics to keep the game tied while he was under siege in the third.
Hammond's string of 6 games will come to an end tonight with a record of 5-0-1, and Craig Anderson will return for his first start since Jan 21st when the Sens land in Winnipeg to face the Jets. The Senators were 10 points out of the playoffs at that point, and now they sit 6 back. It doesn't seem like much but the momentum Hammond built in his stint must now carry over to Anderson's play.
The Senators certainly could have used the extra point, but getting 1 was certainly better than leaving empty handed, especially since Florida, another team they are chasing, lost to the Leafs due to goaltending merry-go-round and the Flames took a point away from the Flyers, the other team they have to leapfrog before even thinking about the Bruins.
They can pass the Flyers with a win tonight, but it won't be easy as the Jets are still holding onto a Wild Card spot in the West, and are in pretty comfortable position. Tyler Myers has been rejuvinated following his escape from Buffalo, and Michael Hutchinson has a record of 19-7-5 as the Jets try to make the playoffs for the first time since they moved from Atlanta to the 'Peg.
Back to backs are never easy especially when travel across the border is involved, but from now on out every two points is ultra important, and these nights where they can make up ground when those around them aren't playing are even more so.
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As promised for the last few days, I did a little draft research while I was waiting for the Senators game to start on Saturday night. I went into this questioning the effectiveness of "tanking" and just how far a team would have to fall to virtually guarantee a solid contributing player.
So I looked at the first round of the draft from the 10 year span covering 2000 to 2009. I chose that period because that gives a player enough time from the time they were drafted to at least begin to show the player they are or will be. Of course there are exceptions and late bloomers (here's looking at you Mike Hoffman) but for the most part 5+ years after being drafted should give a good indication.
For all 300 draft picks I assigned a letter grade of A, B, C, D, or F. A players were players I considered "stars", B were solid top 6 forwards or top 4 defensemen, C are fringe top 6 or very good 3rd liners, D were basically 4th liners or 5/6/7 defensemen who lasted a while and F are players who either never played or appeared very minimally. I didn't use any specific stats, just my perception so each person's grade might be a little different but it gives a decent idea.
First, here is a chart outlining the numbers of each respective grade level came from each slot in the draft.
As you can see, after about the 4th pick, there isn't much difference between the success of the 5th -10 pick and the 10th-15th pick in terms of what you are going to get.
To further illustrate this, I grouped the players into two groups, A-B as the first and C-D-F as the second, and set the range as each 5 picks.
I grouped the A and B players together, because obviously you would like to get a star player with your first rounder, but as long as you get a very good player on the top half of your roster it can't be considered a wasted pick...or in these parts called a "Brian Lee".
As you can see from the second chart, after the top 5 picks, there really isn't more than a negligible difference of where a team picks, and in fact the 11-15 range was slightly more successful than the 6-10 range in getting an A or B player.
Just for reference, out of the 300 players my rankings by grade broke it down as:
A - 48 B - 75 C - 72 D - 35 F - 70
Which brings me to the art of the tank. Some people commenting on these posts continually lament the winning streak the Senators are on (well, point streak now) but the fact is that for most players it doesn't matter much outside the top 4 or 5 in any year, but what matters is how you develop them.
And in a year that the draft pool is as deep and as talented as any draft since the 2003 selection group, the Senators are going to get a good prospect whether they pick 5th or 15th.
And would you rather see this young group of players like Mark Stone, Cody Ceci and the rest have some success they can learn from and build upon or sink like a stone and build a tradition of a downward spiral like a certain blue team a few hours away?
Games are more fun to watch these days, and I would rather see this than the tank that would probably not be good enough to net McDavid or Eichel.
And by the way, the difference in the odds of winning the draft lottery should the Senators fail to make the playoffs between 5th (8.5%) and 9th where they sit now (5.0%) and 12th (2.5%), where they would likely end up if they continue this run but fail to catch Boston is negligible enough for me to say that if it is to be, it will be and enjoy this run.