The Ottawa Senators almost got a little bit of help in their quest for the playoffs last night, but the Buffalo Sabres couldn't finish the job and lost to the Capitals in a shootout. With Boston hosting those Sabres tonight, the Senators probably can't count on much help tonight either, meaning just to keep pace they must win in Raleigh tonight to make Thursday's matchup mean anything at all.
That rink in particular has caused the Senators a ton of problems in the past, like kryptonite. For some reason the Senators can't win in Carolina, not having won in regulation since Dec 12, 2007 and sporting a miserable 1-10-1 record since then, with the lone win coming in an October 2011 shootout.
The Senators can't count on luck of the Irish on this St. Patrick's Day, and they need to bear down and get two points out of this game, whether in regulation or not. The Canes look primed to net a top 5 pick and you would think they wouldn't want to jeopardize that, but hockey players are a competitive lot.
If you remember to just over a month ago, it was the Hurricanes who were the opponent when Clarke MacArthur and Robin Lehner had the goal-mouth collision that has kept both out of the lineup since. That opened the door for Andrew Hammond and you know the rest.
The loss last week at the hands of the Bruins looms large because that 4 point swing would have had Ottawa just a point back now, all other things being equal. If Boston can somehow pull off a loss against the Sabres and the Senators can manage a win the gap would be down to 3 with the Senators still holding a game in hand, with the chance to cut it to 1 with a win on Thursday.
On the other hand, if Ottawa can't get the Carolina monkey off their backs, and Boston doesn't collapse against the Sabres, it could be as high as 7 points which would pretty much be insurmountable. The Capitals win over the Sabres moved them 7 points up with the Senators holding 2 games in hand, so they are still in the mix but a Senators loss would make that gap pretty much insurmountable as well.
Andrew Hammond allowed 2 goals in his third period relief appearance in that game in Ottawa, but has been absolutely brilliant since then. Does he have a little more magic in him?
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There is a lot of talk already starting toward next year and what the forward group will look like. One big question mark for me is Curtis Lazar. The Senators will have options with him that they didn't have this season, because they could send him to the minors.
Lazar has certainly not looked out of place in the NHL and has gotten better in his role, but I think the Senators would like to see more offensive output from their 2013 first round pick. Perhaps a season (or at least the start of one) in a consistent top 6 role where he gets some key power play minutes as a first line centre in the AHL would be the chance he needs to get some offensive mojo going. It would also alleviate the questions surrounding a number of one-way contracts to bottom 6 forwards that won't be running out until the following season, contracts that are not going to be easy to move.
If you look at the lines as they stand now and going forward, with no changes into next year it might look something like this:
Ryan - Zibanejad - Hoffman MacArthur - Turris - Stone Smith - Pageau - Michalek Chiasson - Legwand - Neil
The absence of Condra (pending UFA) and demotion of Lazar makes the bottom 6 weaker, for sure. Resigning Condra and keeping Lazar might be better for the short term, but does it maximize Lazar's future effectiveness, or is playing on the third line for another season develop him enough? And is he a future centre or do they keep him on the wing? And keeping Condra and Lazar would put Smith and Neil to the press box, both on 1 way contracts? Will the Senators buy out Legwand in addition to the likely buyout of Greening? Pageau has got his residence papers meaning he is here for the season, and with good reason, but he is sort of what he is going to be - an energy player who will chip in offensively from time to time but won't be counted on to put up offense. Lazar is far from his upside and might be well served by
Lots of questions that will need answering in the off-season, but the first domino to fall might be what the best path is for Lazar.
And that will all come after the playoff push is over, and hopefully for Senators fans it doesn't end tonigt.