Where has the time gone? Already the Ottawa Senators have reached the de facto 1/4 mark of their season (give or take) and it is time again to take a look at the trends that have the team where it is right now.
As usual, the standings are tough read given the fact that teams have played all different numbers of games, so here is what it would look like if each team had played 20 games (Washington and Boston are at 19 games).
So, the Senators are tied for third in terms points banked between games 11-20, trailing just the Rangers and perhaps shockingly the Maple Leafs.
Using the threshold of 12 points per 10 games being enough to make the playoffs, the Senators are in good shape, and even have a tiny cushion with which to work.
So, how did the Senators get there?
Here are their stats for the last 10, and comparing to how they did in the first 10 games.
While the points are there, there are certainly causes for concern. The penalty kill continues to struggle mightily, although the fact that they have cut down on the power plays against as of late has reduced the impact of a sub-par PK.
If you though the shot disparity was bad through 10 games, it got a lot worse. They were outshot by an average of 3 shots in the first 10 games, and that ballooned up to over 8 per game in the next 10.
When you take into account the fact that their time on the PK was substantially reduced that is certainly an area of concern, but one that has existed almost since the dawn of Corsi becoming a thing. Those shot totals include all areas of the game (even strength, shorthanded and power play), and when you look at 5 on 5 play the possession number is rather shockingly low, and the second worst in the league over that time period. Ironically only the Rangers is worse, and they went 9-1 over that time frame so who knows what value can really be placed on the stat.
The biggest boost for the second segment was the awakening of the power play, that has now vaulted into the top 10 overall based on a strong stretch that has seen them score 9 PPG in their last 7 games. Impotent over the first 10, they seem to be clicking when they need it and they are still adjusting to a brand new system that primarily sees one defensemen and a fluidity of forwards roaming around to different spots. It has taken some getting used to for the players (and the fans as well) but seems to be starting to pay some dividends as opposed to the old static system that wasn't working.
Sure, it wasn't exactly a gauntlet of the elite teams in the league, but there were quality games against the Canadiens and Rangers in there, coming away with 3 of a possible 4 points against the Eastern Conference's divisional leaders. You can only play who is put in front of you, and points that come against easier teams count just as much in the standings as those that come against the tougher ones.
Individually, the Senators were led offensively in this stretch by Erik Karlsson (5G, 7A) and Bobby Ryan (4G, 7A) who both were over a point per game. In all, 13 different players had goals (including the first 3 career goals from rookie Chris Wideman), and 17 put up at least 1 point.
Craig Anderson played 8 of the 10 games, posting a GAA of 2.45 and SP of .927, which are decent numbers but the Nightmare in Nashville where he allowed 7 goals on 38 shots inflated them, but the back to back shutouts to end the homestand brought them back to respectability. Consistency has been Anderson's Achilles' heel, and that is the case again, allowing 4 or more goals 3 times and 1 or less 4 times.
In the next 10, there are a few very tough matchups (Habs, Rangers, Hawks, Stars) as well as a few that the Senators could (and maybe should) win (Coyotes, Avalanche, Flyers, Panthers). The Florida trip at the tail end of the next segment looks pretty large right now and something that I am looking forward to. With the Lightning and Panthers lurking behind Ottawa that is another chance for the Senators to put some distance between them (although who knows what the standings will look like when that trip comes around.
Whatever way you slice it, the Senators have put points up even if it hasn't always been pretty. You could say that up until the last couple of games that they are playing to the level of their opponents instead of setting the pace themselves. Either way, I think everyone could agree that they haven't really had a time where they are firing on all cylinders and there is certainly room for more consistency and almost every player has more to give. That bodes well for the coming games, as long as Dave Cameron can figure out how to get that out of his team.