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After looking at the biggest surprise of the season yesterday today we turn our attention to the player with the greatest expectation, the captain, Erik Karlsson.
PRE-SEASON EXPECTATION
In Karlsson's first season as the captain of the club, it is no secret that the Senators were going to go as far as their best player took them.
Karlsson was expected to be the catalyst of the offense and at least compete in his own end, and likely expected to be in the Norris Conversation at the end of the day.
WHAT ACTUALLY HAPPENED
It was really a tale of two seasons for Karlsson.
The first half of the season was a little up and down as he adjusted to his new leadership role as well as trying to find a partner that he could excel with in light of the injury to Marc Methot. Jared Cowen, Chris Phillips and Mark Borowiecki all saw time on the point with Karlsson but nothing really seemed to fit, and Karlsson's stats suffered as a result. He was still getting points, but a rather high percentage was coming on the power play, and he was a -11 through New Years.
Then there was a coaching change and the eventual return of Methot, and Karlsson got back to Norris Trophy form. The stability provided by his partner in the defensive end and Methot's ability to anticipate what Karlsson was going to do allowed Karlsson to be a little more himself.
The even-strength points started to come and he eventually brought his +/- up to +7 by the time the season was over. He led all NHL defensemen in scoring with 66 points, which also led the Senators. He reached the 20 goal mark for the second consecutive season, the first defenseman to do so since the 1994 lockout.
As a result, he was named a finalist for the Norris Trophy for the second time in his career.
THE HARD STATS
THE FANCY STATS
This is a pretty comparable group of defensemen in terms of the quality of competition they face on a regular basis, but the big difference comes in terms of possession numbers, namely Corsi, that is a big separator in the divisional elite.
THE "KEY" STATS
Only Drew Doughty and Ryan Suter played more minutes than Karlsson this season, and played 672 minutes (or more than 11 full games) more than the next most-used defenseman, Cody Ceci.
FUTURE OUTLOOK
I think with a full season alongside Methot, a healthy Karlsson could flirt with a point per game and get back to the 80 point level that he has bee pretty close to on two occasions.
Shouldering the C on a rebuilding team is a lot to ask, but he has the demeanor and presence to do so effectively and thrive on it.
GRADE: There is no doubt that Karlsson is electric and when he is on his game he is one of the most effective players in the league at what he does. His defensive deficiencies are often blown out of proportion, but in the first half of the season it showed just how much he needs a capable partner to allow him to really spread his wings and fly, but that could be said about any defenseman. After flip-flopping in my mind between A and A+ but after taking into account two facts: 1) there is still room for improvement and greater consistency; and 2) that he was a Norris nominee and possible winner despite that fact; I am going to leave the "+" off this time around and give Karlsson an A .
Up next is one of the more maligned forwards on the team, and will be quite a drop-off from the last few report cards, but one that has to be done!
If you missed them, check out prior Report Cards: