The Stanley Cup playoffs are to many hockey fans as a Mentos candy is to a bottle of pop: there’s going to be a reaction, it’s probably going to require some clean-up at one point or another, and it may well end up on YouTube. But that’s part of the beauty of this time of year – the trees and the grass are British Racing green and teeming with life; the air is still cool, but it’s a kinder cold than the winter chill that grabs you by the bronchioles and doesn’t let go; and, until you take a four-losses-in-seven-games blow straight in the goolies, you’ve got genuine hope sport’s greatest trophy will become the temporary property of your favorite team.
For fifteen teams, though, there will be unexpected challenges, heartbreak, and disappointment. Injuries, luck, and, yes, chemistry, can be deciding factors (other than, obviously, talent) in a franchise’s post-season fate, and the relative parity in the NHL is likely to lead to extremely close series – and maybe a few upsets. That is, if you even believe in the concept of an upset anymore. Yes, there are still going to be some cases where, on paper, one side should walk all over the other, but we’ve all watched this league long enough to know what happens on paper rarely is replicated on ice.
With that in mind, here are thoughts from one individual – no, wait, “so-called individual…, right, internet message boards? – on how the 2016 playoffs might play out:
Eastern Conference
Washington vs. Philadelphia
I TOOK: Flyers in six
THE CASE AGAINST MY PICK: The Capitals were terrific in the regular season and have more than enough firepower, goaltending and roster balance to give any team a run for its money. In their second year under head coach Barry Trotz (and underrated goalie coach Mitch Korn), they’ve set the expectations bar where it ought to be, and with the addition of battle-tested veterans such as Justin Williams and Mike Richards, they might just have enough to really do some damage this time around.
THE CASE FOR MY PICK: The Flyers rebounded from a poor first half of the season to qualify for the playoffs in their penultimate regular-season contest. The passing of team owner Ed Snider provides an emotional touchtone for them, but if they do pull off a shocker and oust the Presidents’ Trophy-winners, it won’t be simply because of it. Instead, it will be because goalie Steve Mason set a David-Blaine-like record for consecutive minutes standing on his head, and/or thanks to a robust physical approach (from center Brayden Schenn and winger Wayne Simmonds, among others) that dulls the edges of Washington’s weapons.
DID I RECONSIDER AND CHANGE MY MIND? Yes, but then I changed my mind again and stayed with the Flyers. There’s no doubt Washington can win, but Philly coach Dave Hakstol has his group focused, and the Caps are under serious pressure to produce. That could lead to some squeezing of sticks, and create enough opening for the Flyers to squeeze through – and on to the second round.
Pittsburgh vs. Rangers
I TOOK: Rangers in seven
THE CASE AGAINST MY PICK: As I wrote about previously, the Penguins have been a baffling, frustrating team to watch in portions of the year, but they finished the season strongly and employ stars at all positions. If the Pens get Sidney Crosby firing on all pistons, and a healthy Evgeni Malkin and Marc-Andre Fleury make their return, they’ll expose some of the Rangers’ flaws, take advantage of the injury-related absence of blueliner Ryan McDonagh, and make a hell of Henrik Lundqvist’s life.
THE CASE FOR MY PICK: Crosby can’t do most of the heavy lifting on his own, and Blueshirts head coach Alain Vigneault is regarded as one of the best coaches in the game because he can recognize and exploit an opponent’s weaknesses as well as anyone, and because he’s stellar when it comes to making in-series adjustments that serve as counterpunches to his adversaries. Lundqvist always gives his side a chance to win, and the Rangers have eliminated Pittsburgh in each of the previous two post-seasons.
DID I RECONSIDER AND CHANGE MY MIND? No. This isn’t to say the Pens can’t win. Indeed, after they took Game 1 in Pittsburgh Wednesday, Crosby & Co. looked confident and ready for more. But the Rangers are a veteran group who have the depth and drive to recover and reel off a string of wins.
Florida vs. Islanders
I TOOK: Islanders in six
THE CASE AGAINST MY PICK: Florida roared louder than more than a few hockey observers expected this season, and old lions Jaromir Jagr and Roberto Luongo were the leaders of an up-and-coming pack of skilled youngsters behind the Panthers’ rise. Trade deadline additions Jiri Hudler and Teddy Purcell give them extra punch, and the Isles enter the playoffs without veteran netminder Jaroslav Halak due to a lower body injury. They definitely could win their first post-season series in two decades, but it won’t be easy.
THE CASE FOR MY PICK: It didn’t seem as if too many pundits were enthralled with the idea the Islanders can beat the Panthers, but this is still an Isles team that won 45 games – just a drop-off of two ‘W’s from last season. It feels as if they’re not getting enough respect, and any team that has John Tavares on it cannot be dismissed. Veteran backup Thomas Greiss will step in for Halak, and though he has just one game of playoff experience, he did beat the Panthers once in the regular season and has shown the capability of getting hot and going on a run.
DID I RECONSIDER AND CHANGE MY MIND? A little bit, but not really. Again, any team that’s in this post-season might pull off a series victory, but I like Greiss’ game and the Isles’ defense corps, and I think the Isles have the best player on either team.
Tampa Bay vs. Detroit
I TOOK: Detroit in seven
THE CASE AGAINST MY PICK: The Lightning are defending conference champs because they’ve got an astonishing array of talent throughout the lineup and can still be a threat despite captain Steven Stamkos and key defenseman Anton Stralman being sidelined with serious injuries. Goalie Ben Bishop is a beast, and Victor Hedman is a menace at both ends of the rink. I can see them winning this series and making it back to the Cup Final, but they’ve played a ton of hockey, and not having Stamkos and Stralman available can only hurt their odds of moving on.
THE CASE FOR MY PICK: The Red Wings backed into the post-season yet again, and this year, they enter them with the spectre of losing cornerstone center Pavel Datsyuk to his homeland next season. But there’s a stubborn resilience to this team that is in part a credit to what former head coach Mike Babcock left behind and what current bench boss Jeff Blashill has maintained. Datsyuk and Zetterberg are now in the wrong half of their thirties, but that could provide a desperation that younger players – Gustav Nyquist and rookie Dylan Larkin among them – can latch onto and use to Detroit’s advantage.
DID I RECONSIDER AND CHANGE MY MIND? Oh yes, and more than once. Let’s face it, if both teams were at full strength, the Bolts would have the edge at every position. But they’re notably decimated, and I think an organization that maintained its quarter-century-old playoff streak this season – and one that’s done a solid job of integrating ex-Caps blueliner Mike Green and former Bolts centre Brad Richards – still has enough left in their tank to sneak past Tampa Bay. The Red Wings no longer are at their competitive peak, but they’ve got playoff experience and what the team knows is a closing window, and that can be the psychological boost that helps them surprise and move on.
Western Conference
Dallas vs. Minnesota
I TOOK: Stars in six
THE CASE AGAINST MY PICK: I realize anything is possible, but with star winger Zach Parise out of the Wild’s lineup, and facing a high-octane Stars offense, there’s really not much of a case to be made for Minnesota overcoming the odds and pulling off the biggest upset of the first round by beating the West’s No. 1 club.
THE CASE FOR MY PICK: Dallas has a choice to make in net, and in some respects, it would be great to have one goalie singled out as your playoff performer. But if Game 1 starter Kari Lehtonen falters, there’s a lot worse you can do than have Antti Niemi as his replacement. Otherwise, the Stars have an overwhelming advantage on offense and a decent-enough defense corps to collaboratively make short work of the Wild. Dallas may yet find an opponent who can pick holes in their system, but it’s tough to see Minnesota as that opponent.
DID I RECONSIDER AND CHANGE MY MIND? Nope, not for a second. I picked Dallas in six in respect to Wild goalie Devan Dubnyk, but even if he’s at his best, it could be Stars in five.
Chicago vs. St. Louis
I TOOK: Blackhawks in six
THE CASE AGAINST MY PICK: Yet again, the Blues look like a team that should do well in the post-season. In Ken Hitchcock, they’ve got the coaching. In Vladimir Tarasenko and David Backes (among others), they’ve got skill and determination up front. In Alex Pietrangelo and Kevin Shattenkirk, they’ve got two thoroughbreds leading a deep defense unit. And in Jake Allen and Brian Elliott, they’ve got sufficient goaltending. There’s really no good reason why this team can’t put together a charge that lasts for two or three rounds.
THE CASE FOR MY PICK: The Blackhawks are the defending Cup champions and a modern-day dynasty, and given that they lost just two fewer games than St. Louis, I’m not sure the Hawks are an underdog. This is arguably the best series of the entire first round, and one tremendous team is going to be tremendously disappointed. Until they demonstrate otherwise, I say the Blackhawks get the benefit of that doubt.
DID I RECONSIDER AND CHANGE MY MIND? Yes I did reconsider, and no, I didn't change my mind. The Blues have a lineup most team owners in the league would kill for, and many of their key players are still in the early parts of their NHL careers. But the Hawks have so many ways to beat you – with their offense and their defense – and their late-season deals prove they’re out to win and win now. I’m inclined to believe them.
Los Angeles vs. San Jose
I TOOK: Sharks in seven
THE CASE AGAINST MY PICK: Only the Stars and Capitals had more regulation and overtime wins than the Kings, who remain as dangerous as they were when they won a championship in 2014. Darryl Sutter has always been a master tactician, and when you give him assets like Drew Doughty and Anze Kopitar to work with, it’s no wonder L.A. is once again a threat to run the table in this tournament. The Kings can grind you into a fine powder, but they can also make magic with the puck and are extremely opportunistic, and that’s a combination that often leads to playoff success.
THE CASE FOR MY PICK: The Sharks have disappointed for so long, they now have an air of underdog about them. But here are the facts: they finished with the NHL’s fourth-best offense (241 goals-for) and posted the league’s best road record (28-10-3), and had a legit Hart Trophy candidate in Joe Thornton looking more relaxed without the team’s captaincy. San Jose doesn’t have the pedigree the Kings do, but that doesn’t guarantee L.A. will eliminate them from playoff competition for the third time in the past four years.
DID I RECONSIDER AND CHANGE MY MIND? Of course. How can you feel good counting out the Kings? They’ve got the size and disposition to dictate how the game is played, and if they do, they’ll make the Sharks a disappointment once again. But – and this is sheer hunch territory – San Jose is no pushover. And the notion of Jones outperforming his former teammate Quick is delicious enough for the Hockey Gods to indulge.
Anaheim vs. Nashville
I TOOK: Predators in seven
THE CASE AGAINST THE PICK I MADE: At the start of the regular season, the Ducks were in disarray and there were all sorts of rumors head coach Bruce Boudreau would be fired. But Anaheim brass didn’t panic, made a few relatively minor adjustments and still wound up winning a very difficult Pacific Division. There’s every chance they get great efforts out of Ryan Getzlaf and Corey Perry and their swift and dangerous blueliners and defeat the Preds. I’m not discounting this possibility at all.
THE CASE FOR THE PICK I MADE: Nashville doesn’t have the luxury of spending with the NHL’s upper crust, but they sure make the most out of what they have, and once again they have a chance to make a decent run. Their home record (23-11-7) is markedly better than their road mark, but they’ll have to steal a win in Anaheim to get the job done. The Preds did win two of three against Anaheim this year, but those games came early in the season when the Ducks were struggling. That said, Nashville also didn’t have former Blue Jackets star Ryan Johansen in their lineup at that time, so they’re arguably stronger than they were at the time. People fear the Ducks and rightfully so, but the Predators are scary as well.
DID I RECONSIDER AND CHANGE MY MIND? Absolutely, I did. This was another hunch, and I’m fully prepared to see it not pan out. But you’ve got to live a little, right? So I am.