Good morning. Happy Canada Day. Also welcome to the absolute madness that is day one of the NHL free agency period. Plenty of action is going to go down in the next few hours and I will recap some of it in the evening, but for now here are my free agent endorsements for the Pittsburgh Penguins
FORWARDS
Top Six Options
Full Endorsement:
Michael Frolik: He is going to come in around ~5M per year for around 5 years and that is a lot of money. However, I tend to believe that keeping around Olli Maatta and Derrick Pouliot outweighs overspending by 1M to a solid all around player like Michael Frolik
Alex Semin: Same concept, keep the top defense prospects and take a chance on Alex Semin. Might take as much as 2 years and 4.0M but I am fine with that risk. He is garnering plenty of interest around the league now that he isn't anchored down by three more years at a 7.0M cap hit.
Fall back options:
Justin Williams: All depends on the term. He is 34 years old and is starting to show mild signs of slowing down. Williams is a dominating force on the possession front and played extremely well with the Kings earning the Conn Smythe Trophy in 2014.
Jiri Tlusty: Has a history with Jim Rutherford if the Penguins come up empty on both the trade front and with some of the better UFA top six forwards this could be a cheap fill in. This is far from ideal but better than some of the other options.
PA Parenteau: Ideally I would like to see the Penguins sign somebody like Paranteau to fill out their bottom six in an effort to have four scoring lines. However, if the Penguins strike out in other areas he has shown the ability to play in the top six before.
Stay away
Matt Beleskey: This guy has David Clarkson written all over him. His larger sample size has shown that last season was the outlier. There is no reason to take a chance on this kind of player hoping that he turned his game around in his late 20's. He is also asking for an absurd amount of money (6M per year)
Martin St. Louis: Perhaps two years ago but he is starting to show signs of being near the end. I always thought he would be great with Sidney Crosby but that time frame has come and gone.
Bottom Six
Full Endorsement:
Eric Fehr: Analytically sound and should come in around 3.5-4.0M on the open market. He would be an upgrade for the Penguins at the third line center position, something that they definitely need if they want to be true contenders. There should be plenty of interest in him from other teams.
Patrick Eaves: This is exactly the kind of player Pittsburgh needs for their fourth line. Solid underlying numbers throughout his career. Only thing holding him back have been fluke concussions received from errant pucks to the head. Dallas did make Eaves an offer but he has yet to accept it.
Mark Arcobello: Pittsburgh can right a wrong from last year. In a surprising move the Arizona Coyotes did not tender him an offer. Arcobello has numbers that make him a legit 3rd line player but he will probably only get 4th line money. Make him the 4th line center and try to actually score goals instead of throw meaningless body checks. Saving money on a productive 4th line means more money for other areas on the team.
Backup Options
Brad Richards: With Artem Anisimov in Chicago it seems likely that the Blackhawks will not have enough money to give to Richards. If things don't work out with Fehr Brad Richards could turn the third line into a scoring line with Kunitz and Dupuis.
Lee Stempniak: Really solid bottom six player that won't come expensive. His even strength offensive numbers have him closer to a top six player than a bottom six player. This runs with my theme of four scoring lines.
Viktor Stallberg: Bought out by Nashville he is another good bottom six player on the market that could help a contender now that his cap hit won't be too high.
Mike Santorelli: Under the radar player for the past few years he has had back to back good seasons with both the Vancouver Canucks and the Toronto Maples Leafs. Definitely a guy that should be on the radar if other options don't work out.
Sean Bergenheim: He might be showing signs that he isn't the possession monster he once was but he is still a solid bottom six player. His healthy scratches in both Florida and Minnesota should drive his market value down. Buy low on a player who has a large sample size of being successful.
Conor Sheary: Speed and skill. Had a great year in the AHL. With more teams looking to break the mold of grit and grind hockey on the 4th line he becomes an internally cheap option worth trying out.
Blake Comeau: Would have to be cheap and on short term. Comeau could play a positive role in a bottom six position. Question is will he understand that he was the product of Evgeni Malkin last year or will he try to sell himself as a top nine hybrid?
Stay Away:
Joel Ward: He is 34 years old and plays a very physical brand of hockey. Recency bias will drive his price up and he is going to want both term and money. Penguins can't pay a premium for an average player certain for decline.
Tyler Kennedy: Sorry, better options out there.
Antoine Vermette: Recency bias of a Cup run plus the fact he is in decline.
DEFENSE
There won't be many options here because Pittsburgh has some young players that can play for the big club in 2015-16. Olli Maatta, Derrick Pouliot, and Brian Dumoulin should all get a regular spot in the lineup (barring trades). This doesn't leave much room for any newcomers when Kris Letang, Ben Lovejoy, Ian Cole, and Rob Scuderi are still technically on the roster.
Pittsburgh would only have room for one big defense addition and that is assuming they can rid themselves of Scuderi and/or move Ben Lovejoy.
Then there is also the fact that Pittsburgh has stated that they won't be getting heavily into the free agency market at the defense position. We'll see.
I am of the belief that Pittsburgh needs to find at least one more bonafide top four defenseman for this upcoming season.
Full Endorsement
Cody Franson: This is a player who is much better than a lot of people think. Some believe he struggled after being traded to Nashville, but that wasn't the case. Laviolette chose to limit his minutes but he didn't struggle, he actually outperformed that role by a significant margin. Franson is right handed and helps drive possession. Pittsburgh wants a youth movement on defense and they can still have one even with Franson. Franson is 27 and will probably get close to six years and six million on the market. That is an acceptable price for a solid top four defenseman.
Andrej Sekera: Think of this as getting the younger version of Paul Martin. I don't have to add much to that as Paul Martin was a fabulous Pittsburgh Penguin
Backup options
Mike Green: Truth be told Mike Green might get the most money on the open market among free agent defensemen. If the Penguins miss out on Franson and Sekera it is probably because of money. This doesn't leave Green as a realistic option, but because of his offensive abilities I felt the need to place him somewhere on the list.
Paul Martin: Only way is if it is for two years or less but the reality is this is Paul Martin's last big chance at cashing out. Go get paid Paul.
Stay Away:
Sergei Gonchar: It is laughable that this is even a topic of discussion
I don't have any defensemen on this list for a bottom pairing because that is the last thing the Penguins need
Should be a fun day tracking this stuff around the league.
This is a must read for Penguins fans today
NEW: Why Did the #Pens Miss on Brandon Saad? And other July 1st free agency storylines: http://t.co/ur37ccoXM0 | pic.twitter.com/a7i3fclfxb
— Mike Colligan (@MikeColligan) July 1, 2015
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