As many of you know, Jaden Schwartz elected to file for arbitration. While the NHL has not yet released the arbitration schedule for individual players, all of the arbitration hearings will be held from July 20 to August 4, 2016. Of course, nothing prevents the players and teams from negotiating a contract in the meanwhile and canceling the arbitration process if they agree on a new contract. If it goes through arbitration, the Blues will have the right to pick a one of two year arbitration award.
Earlier reports suggested that Schwartz is seeking a contract that will pay him well over $6 million a year AAV, perhaps one that is just shy of Vladimir Tarasenko’s $7.5 million AAV deal. As I outlined a week ago, the data suggests that he may not even be a $6 million man before you even consider the Blues cap situation and his injury history. Recent signings seem to confirm his max value is around $6 million.
We already outlined that Schwartz's ask was more than Blake Wheeler and Filip Forsberg and substantially more than Mats Zuccarello. It also would be substantially more than 25 year old, 30 goal scorer Kyle Palmierei who got 5 years with a $4.65 million AAV and 22 year old Vincent Trocheck's 6 years at $4.75 million AAV. The ask is likely more than 23 year old Mark Scheifele's 8 year, $6.125 million AAV contract and 20 year old, Aleksander Barkov's 6 year, $5.9 million AAV deal. Let's look at a few of the comparison charts.
Trochek
Note how their production numbers are very similar though Trocheck's possession metrics are significantly better and his AAV was below $5 million. .
Barkov
In looking at Barkov, the Panthers are definitely paying for growth and potential. When you look at Schwartz and Barkov's comparison charts at similar ages, Barkov's performance far exceeds that of Schwartz. I didn't go back one more year on Schwartz as he only played 7 NHL games that season.
Scheifele
Note that Scheifele has slightly better production numbers and better possession metrics. He is close in age and his $6.125 million AAV include a premium for going to the 8th year. His deal suggests Schwartz shouldn't get an AAV starting with a 6 even if he goes to 7 years.
Again, we see more data that suggest Schwartz is a mid to upper $5 million AAV player. The idea that he is above $6 million in AAV just isn't support by the market. Blues GM Doug Armstrong has to be careful here as he has missed the mark on a number of Blues contracts, losing hundreds of thousands of cap space here and there which all add up to become significant with a team so close to the cap. More on the cap and the off-season moves later.
It’s a great day for hockey.