First, a few thoughts on the weekend of action for the Carolina Hurricanes, who swept a home and home series against the Columbus Blue Jackets to earn four valuable points in the Eastern Conference playoff race:
It's clear that a lot of intangibles for success are honing in for Carolina. Even if the personnel isn't exactly where coach Bill Peters and GM Ron Francis want it just yet, they've proven that the system works when it's adhered to. And when it's not, as evidenced in the first half of period one on Friday night and for most of the third period in both games against Columbus this weekend, things can fall apart rather quickly.
The Hurricanes must develop a finishing ability, especially against teams they have to beat in order to keep pace in a tight conference. While any team can defeat another on any given night, the Canes tend be short in the killer instinct department when it matters most: against teams below them in the standings.
The effort has been relatively consistent, but Carolina allowed two short handed goals this past week; the second of which gave the Blue Jackets life in a 3-0 game late in the second period. A power play goal in place of allowing a short hander puts the game out of reach. This is the difference between teams who finish and teams who allow their opponents too many opportunities to hang around in games.
Chuck Kaiton, the radio voice of the Hurricanes, mentioned surprise at the Jared Boll/Brad Malone altercation on Saturday night. He said that the issue (Malone's questionable hit on Nick Foligno in the second period of Friday's game) was basically settled between the teams with the ensuing Brandon Dubinsky/Malone fight, and that despite the NHL ruling on the matter - see below - there would likely be no continuing response from Columbus.
The Blue Jackets defended their captain once more, though, and kudos to Columbus for that. I expect the matter is now settled between the two clubs, and despite the propensity for some in the media to wish fighting gone from the NHL, this is the perfect example of where and why it should remain. Carolina isn't known to drop the gloves very often, but Malone stood up for his actions and his team. It's unfortunate that Foligno was injured, but stick taps to both clubs on the response.
Finally, Jordan Staal has been a force on the ice as of late, with three goals and three assists in his past three games. The Hurricanes need more of the same from the younger Staal, who at 27 years old needs to regain the form that earned him a 10-year, $60 million deal back in 2012.
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Before we get to the main course of today's blog, I've set up an NHL Standings tracker that is focused on the Hurricanes and how each Eastern Conference team's games affects Carolina's outlook on the playoff race.
Games In Hand (GIH, in light red) is self-explanatory: this is each team's number of games in hand on the Hurricanes. This number is negative when they've played more games than the Canes.
The Today field indicates which teams are playing that day/night, and who they are playing. If they don't have an opponent, this field shows the date of their next contest.
And finally, the Impact field tells you how important that team's game may be to the Hurricanes playoff chances. If a team is 9+ points ahead or behind Carolina in the standings, then their result has a LOW impact (yellow). If a team is within 4-8 points of the Canes, then their result has a MEDIUM impact (orange). Lastly, if a team is 3 points or less from the Hurricanes, then that team's performance obviously has a HIGH impact (red).
This will be updated in each subsequent blog to the current standings at that time.
#Canes playoff tracker & impact. See my latest Hurricanes blog on #HockeyBuzz for more! :) pic.twitter.com/r2ICP39qp9
— Thomas Gidlow (@ThomasGidlow) January 12, 2016
As of today, the Hurricanes find themselves four points out of the second wild card spot in the Eastern Conference. However, the two teams immediately ahead of the Canes have games in hand (Philadelphia has three, while Pittsburgh, Carolina's opponent on Tuesday, has two).
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It may be easy to say from the outside looking in that the Hurricanes have a problem. While the team's current status isn't perfectly ideal and there is plenty left to be resolved in the weeks ahead (both with their standing in the East and their plethora of decisions on contracts), this is basically where GM Ron Francis forecasted his club to be at this stage of his tenure.
Carolina has more or less worked their way back to a .500 record. This comes after a November swoon made it appear that January and February hockey may not have the meaning it now does. The Canes are in the fight, which is a far cry from where this team sat when Francis took the helm in April of 2014.
In my first blog as a guest writer here on HockeyBuzz, I referenced the long term plan that Francis began to implement with the hire of Bill Peters, who has done a great job of creating a working system to excel in today's NHL. Slowly but surely, Francis has put his hand prints on the organization with his drafting style, trades, and signings.
And it was all leading to this summer, when the Hurricanes would possibly be coming into the 2016 Entry Draft without the only two holdouts from their 2006 Stanley Cup team in Eric Staal and Cam Ward.
Ward has bounced back over the past few weeks after another so-so start between the pipes. Eddie Lack has been better of late as well, after a tough start in limited appearances while adjusting to a new team in a new conference.
But there has been no such bounce back for Eric Staal. Despite a mini flurry at the end of 2015 where the 31-year old UFA-to-be netted six points in five games to close the year, he's been hard to see consistently on the scoresheet. Staal earned four goals and ten assists in 24 games in October and November, and has been on a similar pace with four goals and eight assists in 19 games through December and January. It's the lowest output statistically for Staal since his rookie campaign in 2003, and it puts Francis squarely behind the eight ball whether he's negotiating a trade or a new contract for the Carolina captain.
Staal is earning $9.5 million this season with an $8.25 million cap hit. Either number is a non-starter in terms of a contract extension. Eric's brother Jordan will earn $6 million per year through the 2022-23 season - is Jordan's deal a more suitable number for Francis? Would Eric accept that type of cut when he could potentially still command a few more million over the course of a deal secured via open market?
Staal has expressed his interest on staying in Raleigh, and he does retain a lot of say on the trade front with a full no-movement clause through the end of his deal. Francis would have to present Staal with a trade - Staal doubtlessly won't ask for one. But who could take him and give the Hurricanes enough in return to justify it?
In my aforementioned blog on the state of the Canes heading into 2016, I spoke of how moving Staal would likely be a step back. Carolina doesn't have a lot of natural replacements in the system on the brink of breaking the main roster. Victor Rask and Jordan Staal are capable and both have shown flashes of being able to shoulder the load. Elias Lindholm can play C but has been featured mostly on the wing.
One possible scenario that could be a benefit to both teams involved would be a trade with the Toronto Maple Leafs. Like Carolina with their bevy of pending FA's, the Leafs are on the cusp of a large transition as Team Shanahan has 14 of 26 players currently earning an NHL salary due to become free agents at the end of this year. It's no secret that the Leafs want to rebuild through youth this time around after years of partial reconstructions.
Someone will still have to lead that movement. Who better than Eric Staal, who will be 32 by late October and could have an opportunity to help guide his hometown team through a genuine rebuild. While the pressure of playing in such a hockey hotbed isn't to be overlooked, few will seriously expect Toronto to be competing for a Stanley Cup in 2016-17 should Shanahan stick to his plans to get younger. And while bringing in Staal and feasibly signing him to a 2 or 3 year deal doesn't help that cause immediately, it puts a skilled, veteran player in the #1 center position for a time while younger players mature and grow into taking that role.
Tyler Bozak would be an interesting fit in Carolina red and white. A good two-way center who is very good on faceoffs, his acquisition would give Rask a shot at becoming the de-facto number one scoring center. Bozak is under contract through 2017-18 with a $4.2 million cap hit each year, but might be better moved for youth and futures alone instead of being the main piece to acquire a player like Staal.
Frederik Gauthier, a hulking 6'5", 220 pound 20-year old center with defensive tendancies and some offensive upside, could be someone Francis would covet. Gauthier signed a three-year entry deal this summer and is playing with the Toronto Marlies in his first pro season, notching 11 points in 28 games thus far. The Canes lack a lot of young pro depth at forward and with their stockade of defensive talent, a need-for-need inclusion could shake Gauthier loose.
The Canes also have two first round picks in this year's draft (their own and Los Angeles' as part of the Andrej Sekera deal last year) and it's not impossible to believe one could go along with Staal in the right package.
While no one would say it's easy to make a trade in today's NHL, especially in the case of Eric Staal, it's more likely now than at any other point in his career. The crossroads for the Carolina Hurricanes is near, and whether it's Toronto, Carolina, or another destination, it promises to be an interesting six weeks heading to the trade deadline.
Thomas Gidlow