Thus far during the Flyers' training camp, there have not been many tough decisions to make for general manager Ron Hextall and head coach Dave Hakstol. All of the roster cuts to date have been fully expected and, due to the staggered returns of the various participants in the World Cup of Hockey, there has been ample opportunity to take a look at many different line combinations and to put top prospects Ivan Provorov and Travis Konecny to the test in a variety of game situations.
With two exhibition games remaining, there are veteran players who need ice time to get ready for the opener. Both Mark Streit and Pierre-Edouard Bellemare, who reached the World Cup of Hockey's best-of-three finals with Team Europe, will play on Thursday. Streit was paired with Provorov at Tuesday's practice while both Bellemare (who could also see time on a wing) and Boyd Gordon will compete for the fourth-line center role.
There are still several roster cuts left to make, and numerous players on the bubble for different reasons. Barring trades, is safe to assume that the following players have secure spots on the opening night roster: forwards Claude Giroux, Jakub Voracek, Brayden Schenn (three-game suspension to start the season), Wayne Simmonds, Sean Couturier, Michael Raffl, Dale Weise, Bellemare and Gordon, defensemen Michael Del Zotto, Shayne Gostisbehere, Radko Gudas, Streit and Nick Schultz, and goaltenders Steve Mason and Michal Neuvirth.
Nick Cousins is close to a lock at this point for one of the remaining forward spots. Conversely, defenseman Sam Morin was returned to the Phantoms today, along with Taylor Leier.
Even before the start of training camp, there was a strong sense that, while the Flyers would do what they had to do based on preseason performance, Hextall really did not want to waive Andrew MacDonald and assign him to the Phantoms for a second straight year. The GM said several times over the past year that MacDonald belongs in the NHL, and handled his demotion last year with tremendous grace and professionalism.
MacDonald has also had a much better training camp than he had a year ago. While fan opinion is stacked against MacDonald, Brandon Manning and Schultz (who suffered a lower-body injury against the New York Islanders on the second night of the preseason and was slated to miss about a week), the only vote that ultimately counts is Hextall's.
Even if Manning is not back in the top six, the Flyers likely would prefer to keep him around in a seventh defenseman's role; that is, unless that is where Schultz would end up barring someone being traded (Streit?) to alleviate some of the overcrowding if Provorov makes the team. Manning has not had a bad preseason, and it appeared that the GM and the coach were generally happy with how he played down the stretch and in the playoffs against Washington last year.
Entering training camp, it was going to be up to Provorov to play up to very high standards to force the issue. He has done exactly that; handling heavy ice time, playing in all game situations, playing on back-to-back nights, even playing some right-side defense.
By merit, the 19-year-old is very much still in the mix for a roster spot. If he makes the team, expect some growing pains. However, Provorov increasingly looks like he could withstand the inevitable ups and downs at his current level of development. He looks like an NHL player, and not just someone who can hold his own for a month or two before hitting a wall. Is there risk involved? Certainly. But his performance in camp has been to a level where the Flyers should feel a little more comfortable that the reward/risk quotient is reasonable.
In short, something has to give if Provorov makes the team, and the scenarios are now worth discussing. The Flyers are unlikely to carry eight defensemen. In terms of roster moves, it works to the Flyers benefit that, for once, nothing will be dictated primarily by the salary cap. Cap-wise, the Flyers can carry any combination of players remaining in camp that they choose. Streit, Del Zotto and Schultz are all unrestricted free agents after the 2016-17 season.
The trade markets for Streit (coming off a serious injury and a down year last season) and Schultz are limited unless another team has a specific and immediate need for a proven power play defenseman such as Streit. The Flyers could eat some salary if they had to but probably would not do it for its own sake. Del Zotto, conversely, would have trade value -- and could conceivably prove tough to re-sign to an extension depending on the term and salary it would take to sign him to a pre-emptive extension -- but is still needed by the current team for the upper portion of the blueline depth chart.
Although the expansion draft after this season is a secondary consideration, it is worth noting that either Manning or MacDonald could be available to fulfill the draft exposure requirement based on the number of NHL games they play this season. MacDonald would have to play 40 NHL games this season, while Manning would have to play 14. That is important because, in lieu of either player being eligible for entry draft exposure, the Flyers would be forced to expose Gudas (because their only other draft-eligible defenseman is the certain-to-be-protected Gostisbehere).
Alternate captain Streit is still a valuable part of the team's leadership group, and a calming presence on the team. However, between Gostisbehere, Del Zotto and two-way defenseman Provorov (assuming he makes the team), the Flyers have enough attack from the back end to withstand his loss. Keep in mind also that offensive-minded Travis Sanheim is set to play his rookie season in Lehigh Valley and showed flashes this preseason of his potential to become an offensive difference-maker as he was in the Western Hockey League. The defensive side of the puck is where Sanheim primarily needs work.
As such, while it is not quite accurate to say that Streit is expendable if Provorov makes the team, it is fair to say that there's a lot of skill in the pipeline and that the time will come soon -- next season if not in 2016-17 -- when there will be no holding back the younger players.
Up front, the players still competing for jobs are Konecny, Roman Lyubimov and roster incumbents Scott Laughton, Matt Read, Chris VandeVelde and Jordan Weal. Assuming Cousins already has a spot, there are two starting jobs left and a 13th forward spot.
Although Weal has had a good preseason offensively, he still seems likely to be waived for purposes of AHL assignment. There are still elements of his game that are more AHL than NHL caliber and, while he is offensively skilled, it's going to be tough for him to score at a high enough pace to be a regular in the lineup. In short, it's not really all that different than his situation of a season ago in both Los Angeles and Philadelphia. Scoring a few goals this preseason has not really changed that outlook.
Read needs to pick up the pace a bit over the remainder of the preseason. He has skated well and defended fine but, in order to justify his salary and remain in the starting lineup, he has to recover at least some of the offensive game that has AWOL the last two seasons. Even if he hangs on to his roster spot, he is in danger of slipping to the 13th forward spot.
Laughton, too, needs to pick up the pace with greater consistency. He is entering his third full pro season and has 107 games in the NHL under his belt. It seems that left wing will now be his primary position; possibly on a line with Cousins and Weise. Laughton has to start asserting himself with greater frequency, however.
During the preseason to date, Konecny has shown a high level of offensive skill and an ability to get under opponents' skin. Now that he is facing more NHL-oriented lineups and skating on scoring lines, he will have to show that he can keep on making things happen. His play without the puck is still a work in progress and, if he does not make the team, the need for continued rounding out of his total game as well as adding just a little more strength would be the most likely reasons cited for him spending one final season in the Ontario Hockey League. Konecny has played both right wing and left wing this preseason. He expressed total comfort with the left side if need be but has looked better overall at right wing.
While it is not out of the question that Provorov or Konecny could get a nine-game trial with the big club, Hextall has openly said in the past that he is not a fan of that arrangement. Either a player is ready for the long haul-- in which case, a bumpy game or some early inconsistency would not be viewed as a sign the player needs to return to his junior team -- or he's not.
VandeVelde has shown that he's a serviceable 4th line forward from a defensive and boardwork standpoint, offers some size and his skating is not a liability. The question is whether someone else could be equal or superior in those areas while providing a little more offense than VandeVelde did last year. Even in a defensive forward role, scoring just two goals in a season is not going to keep a player's job secure.
It seems unlikely that both VandeVelde and Lyubimov make the team. Right now, it still seems more likely that Lyubimov starts the season with the Phantoms to continue acclimating himself to the North American game and VandeVelde holds onto an NHL roster spot. However, there will be probably be an ongoing competition for the role. Over the longer haul, do not be surprised if Leier pushed for a bottom six spot on the NHL roster by next year.
I am certain that, if asked, Hextall will say that all options are open to continue shaping the roster for opening night; and he's not going to tip his hand whatsoever as to how he's leaning on the decisions involving Provorov and Konecny.
We're in store for a lot of activity -- and a lot of debate -- in the days to come.