MELTZER'S MUSINGS: MAY 31, 2015
1) There will be at least one former Flyers defenseman -- and possibly two -- with the honor of lifting the Stanley Cup, getting his name etched on the trophy and receiving a championship ring after the 2015 Stanley Cup Final. Representing the Tampa Bay Lightning are Braydon Coburn and Matt Carle. Representing the Chicago Blackhawks, but uncertain to play after being a healthy scratch in Games 6 and 7 of the Western Conference Final, is Kimmo Timonen.
It will be interesting to see which club Flyers fans pull for in the Finals.
If Chicago wins, Timonen gets his long-elusive Stanley Cup (albeit as a bit player) before he retires. Some may point out that it would also mean the Flyers get the 29th instead of 30th pick of the first round of the 2015 Draft. While true, there is likely zero difference in the implication for whom Philly ends up taking. The only way this would be a factor is the minuscule possibility that the Flyers and Chicago would have the same player ranked atop their respective internal draft rankings after the 28th pick is made.
In order for Tampa's playoff fate to have potentially made a difference in whom the Flyers end up taking with the pick acquired in the Coburn trade -- and even then, there's a decent possibility that it may not have mattered come Draft day -- is if the Bolts had lost much earlier in the playoffs and the best-case scenario of the Flyers getting the 22nd to 24th pick shaken out based on all results in the first two rounds.
It would nice to see Timonen get a Stanley Cup to end his career, but it would be more as a symbolic "lifetime achievement award" for someone who has been a consummate team player and competitor than for anything he's done for the Blackhawks. A fearless and proud player, Timonen has been a shell of his former self since his return to play this season. He wanted to go out on his own terms, and earned the right to do so, but it is been painful watching him play and knowing he can no longer do even what he did the last few years.
Timonen was already slowing down the last couple years but had still been an effective player more often than not due to sheer guile. Since going to Chicago, he has simply not been able to keep with the pace of play. This is partially due to natural decline and the array of wear-and-tear he's accumulated over the years. In larger part, it's due to the lack of a bonafide training camp, preseason and first five months of the season which put him hopelessly behind the eight ball in terms of being able to significantly contribute to the Blackhawks.
Also do not forget that Timonen pulled his groin in his first game with Chicago -- an injury that probably lingered to some extent -- and that, while the blood clots in his lungs resolved on his medication regimen, he will still always have the blood clot in his calf according to his self-report to the media. He's simply not physically able to help his team on the ice, and cannot have nearly the same dressing room presence he had in Philadelphia (and Nashville) because he knows he's a short-term rental in Chicago with a minimal on-ice role.
In the meantime, Coburn and Carle play larger roles for Tampa than Timonen plays for Tampa, although they are supporting cast defensemen on a deep team rather than playing near the top of the rotation. While much-maligned by a segment of Flyers fans during their respective time in Philadelphia and Coburn and Carle both have unsightly plus-minus ratings (for whatever those are worth) in the playoffs this spring, both players served the team well during their time in Philadelphia. At the time of his trade to the Lightning, Coburn was the longest-tenured Flyers player.
During the Eastern Conference Final, it seemed that the majority of Flyers fans wanted Tampa Bay to win the series. However, it was not so much for the presence of two former Flyers as it was that their opposition was the hated New York Rangers; a team many Flyers supporters cannot bring themselves to pull for under any circumstances except perhaps during the first round this year when the Rangers had the chance and succeeded in plowing through the arguably even more hated Pittsburgh Penguins.
As noted in a previous blog, misery loves company. Long-suffering Flyers fans got a brief respite from reminders that the team just had its 40th anniversary of its most recent Stanley Cup championship through the schadenfreude of the Rangers having one Stanley Cup in the last 75 years and half the number of trips to the Cup Final over the last 40 seasons.
On the flip side, both Tampa Bay (2004 Eastern Conference Final) and Chicago (2010 Stanley Cup Final) have inflicted extremely painful playoff defeats on Flyers' teams that were otherwise good enough to go all the way and seemed at one point to be destined to do so. In franchise history, only the sixth game of the 1980 Stanley Cup Final and the realization of falling one win short of the Cup in 1987 may exceed the pain of seeing Tampa go on to win the 2004 Cup before the lockout and the fluky, abrupt overtime end to the Flyers' heretofore magical 2010 playoff run.
The 1995 and 2000 losses to the Devils in the Eastern Conference final come close on the pain scale, too. Perhaps others may cite the galling loss to a clearly lesser Florida Panthers team in 1996 and the four consecutive blown leads in 2012 against New Jersey (after a comeback win in Game One).
Let's face it: It is tough to watch any other team celebrate with the Stanley Cup (or at least earn a trip to the Final), especially when it feels attainable for your own team of rooting interest. But someone has to win it. This year's two finalists are both deep teams that play an enviable brand of hockey, irrespective of having former Flyers on the rosters.
2) Oddly enough, Tampa Bay's win over the Rangers also means Tampa will be picking at least one (and a maximum of two) spots earlier in the first round of the 2015 draft than they would had the Rangers won. It also means that, with the 27th overall selection, Tampa will get to pick in the first round either one or two spots ahead of where the Flyers make their second pick of the opening round.
Here's why: The Lightning obtained the Rangers' 2015 first-round pick as part of the blockbuster trade last season that sent Martin St. Louis to the Rangers and Ryan Callahan to the Bolts. By virtue of knocking out the Rangers in the Eastern Conference Final, the Bolts locked in the pick they obtained from New York as the 27th overall selection.
When the Flyers made the Coburn trade, they conditionally obtained the Lightning's 2015 first-rounder, with the condition being that the pick was lottery protected. In other words, on the very slim chance that Tampa suffered an epic collapse and missed the postseason this year, the Lightning would have kept their own pick. Instead, the Flyers would have gotten the Rangers' first-round pick in its place.
On March 30th of this year, the Lightning clinched a playoff spot. That met the condition of the Coburn trade and sent Tampa's first-round pick to the Flyers. As it has turned out, by virtue of trading their own pick instead of the Rangers' to Philly, the Bolts will pick slightly ahead the Flyers late in the first round. This is an insignificant difference in practical terms, but still a side-effect of a Tampa team controlling its own destiny and getting both a huge reward in a trip to the Finals and a tiny one in terms of first-round draft position.
3) Speaking of draft position, Chicago's victory over the Anaheim Ducks in the Western Conference Final coupled with Timonen playing five games in the series (and 15 of 17 postseason games to date) means that the Flyers will get Chicago's 2016 second-round pick to complete the trade that also sent the Blackhawks' 2015 second-rounder to the Flyers in exchange for Timonen.
For whatever it's worth, however, Chicago's trip to the Finals this season also pushes down where the Flyers will pick in the second round of the 2015 Draft. That pick will now be either the 60th or 61st overall of the draft.
There will 31 picks made in the second round, rather than 30. That's because the Blackhawks get a compensatory pick from the NHL -- 54th overall, 24th in the second-round selection order --- for being unable to sign former first-round pick Kevin Hayes, who opted for unrestricted free agency last summer and signed with the Rangers.
Depending on whether the Lightning or the Blackhawks win the Stanley Cup Final, this is how the Flyers' 2015 draft picks will fall:
1st round - Flyers (7th overall), Tampa Bay (29th or 30th overall) 2nd round - Chicago (60th or 61st overall) 3rd round - San Jose (70th overall), Tampa Bay (90th or 91st overall) 4th round - Flyers (98th overall), Columbus (99th overall) 5th round - Flyers (128th overall) 6th round - Flyers (158th overall) 7th round - Flyers (188th overall)
4) There appears to be a good chance that the Flyers will move at least one veteran defenseman via trade by the time of the Draft, most likely getting one or more additional draft picks in return in 2015 and/or 2016. Perhaps they may make other moves that involve draft picks coming to Philadelphia. The more picks the Flyers obtain, the more flexibility they have in what they do with them.
5) It is very easy to pick apart a team's draft years after the fact. Hindsight is always 20-20. For example, it's easy to say now that the Flyers whiffed on the second round of the 2006 Draft, when they had three picks - Andreas Nödl at 39th overall, Mike Ratchuk at 42nd and Denis Bodrov at 55th -- but only one went on to play at all in NHL and none became impact players.
At the time, however, all three of the Flyers' second round picks were easily justifiable selections.
Nödl was a dynamic two-way talent at the USHL and, later, the collegiate lever St. Cloud State. His offensive game did not translate to the pro game as it turned out but seemed to have all the tools to become a solid NHLer -- decent size, good skating, 200-foot-game potential.
Ratchuk was a pure offensive defenseman. There were significant defensive question marks and he lacked size but his puck skills and shot were well above average. He never developed from that point onward and ended up bouncing around the minor leagues but it was a high-risk, high-reward proposition from the start. Had he panned out, as the (even smaller but smarter and more committed) Shayne Gostisbehere has thus far done, it would have seemed like a fine pick.
Bodrov was widely projected at the time as having a similar upside to former Flyer Danny Markov. It didn't work out that way, but the Flyers were far from the only NHL team who liked him.
6) The Flyers would really like to take a goaltender or two this year in the draft unless it is simply too much of a reach based on how the selections in front of them go. That was the case a year ago, where the goalies the team liked in certain draft ranges were gone before the Flyers' next turn came up. As it turned out, every one of the Flyers' 2014 draftees made progress (to varying degrees) over the past year so the early returns are promising despite the lack of adding any additional netminders to the prospect pipeline.
On April 30th, Flyers scouting director Chris Pryor said there are a significant number of goalies the organization likes in various projected draft-spot ranges and the volume of picks the team has available this year increases the chance the organization will be able to draft at least one goaltender along the way. The organization still will not take goalie just for its own sake -- despite the fact that Anthony Stolarz and Merrick Madsen are the only two prospect-aged goaltenders in the pool -- but will try to address that area if they can.
Although Central Scouting and the pundit consensus out of TSN Scouting directorCraig Button generally places Mackenzie Blackwood as the top goalie available in the Draft and Russian netminder Ilya Samsonov second, there is so much unpredictability in projecting goaltender development that NHL teams' internal ranking order could vary pretty widely.
Button has Samsonov as the top goalie by far and 14th overall player on his final Craig's List ranking (not a mock draft projection) and Swedish goalie Felix Sandström as the second highest goalie and 48th overall. Blackwood is third on Button's list at 62nd overall, followed by Swiss goalie Joren van Pottelberghe at 85th.
There hasn't been a single goaltender selected in the first round of the NHL Draft since 2012. As such, There is a decent chance there will not be any goaltenders taken in the top 28 picks of the draft this year. It's a strong possibility there won't be more than one. As such, if the Flyers have someone ranked sufficiently high, there is at least a chance Philly could use the Tampa first-round pick on a goalie.
7) At the end of the day, if a player is sufficiently talented and competitive, issues such lacking size or having suspect speed can be overcome. With the success that the pint-sized Johnny Gaudreau has had in Calgary -- who rolled the dice on him in the fourth round of the 2011 Draft despite the fact that he only carried a mere 135 pounds on his body at the time and still weighs only about 155 pounds now -- other teams might be increasingly willing to take a middle-round gamble on a similar player.
Calgary was also the team that found room for the severely undersized Paul Byron on its NHL roster. A regular linemate of Claude Giroux with the QMJHL's Gatineau Olympiques, Byron's tiny frame made him a longshot NHL prospect even after the Buffalo Sabres took him in the 6th-round of the 2007 Draft. He briefly played for the Sabres in the NHL before moving on to the Calgary organization. Don't forget that the Sabres originally took a chance on Nathan Gerbe in the fifth round of the 2005 Draft.
Today, Gaudreau, Gerbe and Byron are all NHL players. The NHL is a copycat league, so it would not be a surprise if the other teams showed a little more risk tolerance.
Incidentally, Gaudreau was far from an unknown to the Flyers heading into the 2011 Draft. Apart from being born and raised in New Jersey, the Flyers scouted him with the USHL's Dubuque Fighting Saints, where he was a teammate of Nick Luukko and the likes of Zemgus Girgensons and Joakim Ryan. If Gaudreau had gone unselected in the first six-plus rounds of the 2011 NHL Draft, Philly may have used the 206th overall pick to take a no-risk flier on Gaudreau. The possibility was at least discussed.
Last year, the Flyers selected undersized but gritty Swedish defensive defenseman Jesper Pettersson in the final round of the Draft and then signed him to an entry-level contract. Pettersson had a bumpy first pro year in North America with the AHL's Lehigh Valley Phantoms. However, the player known as "Pit Bull" settled in over the latter portion of the year and could play a bigger role for the farm team next year.
8) No matter whether the OHL champion Oshawa Generals or WHL titlist Kelowna Rockets win today's Memorial Cup Final in Quebec City, there will be a Flyers connection.
Injured 2013 third-round draft pick Tyrell Goulbourne will be on hand for the final game of his long affiliation with Kelowna. Goulbourne, who turned 21 on Jan. 26, spent four full seasons and parts of two previous seasons with the Rockets.
Additionally, former Flyers winger Eric Wellwood is a 25-year-old assistant coach for Oshawa. The other day, the Toronto Star's Kevin McGran wrote a must-read article on how Wellwood has dealt with the abrupt ending to his pro hockey playing career after a gruesome on-ice accident. He's gaining a reputation as a good communicator and mentor -- Wellwood is the "good cop" assistant on the Generals and players relate to him because he's fairly close to their age yet has the cache of having played in the NHL.
It has been a heartwarming story to see how Wellwood has turned personal misfortune into a new career opportunity in which he is excelling. He's a bright and earnest young man, so it's not surprising that he's finding success as a coach. Even so, it's remarkable how quickly and smoothly he's made the transition from playing to coaching at such a young age.
9) Congratulations to Lehigh Valley Phantoms forward Danick Martel for receiving the CHL Huminitarian of the Year for the 2014-015 season during his overage season with the QMJHL's Blainville-Boisbriand Armada. Martel signed an entry-level NHL contract with the Flyers after the season (kicking in for the 2015-16 season) and finished the campaign an Amateur Try Out contract with the Phantoms in the AHL.
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FLYERS ALUMNI FANTASY HOCKEY CAMP
The Flyers Alumni will host a fantasy hockey camp from August 21-24 in Atlantic City, open to anyone age 21 and older. Instructors and Alumni participants will include Bernie Parent, Brian Propp, Ian Laperriere, Todd Fedoruk, Andre "Moose" Dupont, Dave "the Hammer" Schultz, Joe Watson and Bob "the Hound" Kelly.
The registration deadline is June 1. Participation costs $3,000 apiece but it is free to register a spot online. Over on the Flyers' Alumni website, there is more information on camp-related activities and on-ice schedules.