1) Every NHL Draft is filled with varying degrees of hype and the potential for buyer's remorse. That's especially true when a Draft is considered as deep as the 2015 crop. For the Philadelphia Flyers, who are focusing heavily on building a larger percentage of the roster through the draft and player development, general manager Ron Hextall has made no pretense about the fact that the pressure is on to come up not only with a future NHL impact player with the seventh overall pick but multiple future NHL contributors with subsequent picks.
"This is a very critical draft for us," Hextall said at his media availability session on Friday. "I think one of the more critical drafts in years. We've got to hit. We have to hit here. We do have a lot of picks and we have some holes to fill. We need to keep young players coming. So this is a critical point for us, that's for sure."
Some have tried to temper expectations of how many projectable impact players there really are in this year's draft, For example, The Hockey News Draft Preview leads off with editor Brian Campbell citing scouts who say this year's draft has a strong top 10 and is "OK but just average" after that. THN says that the comparisons to the now-legendary 2003 NHL Draft and other top historical draft classes are misfounded.
That could very well prove to be true. Then again, the 2003 Draft wasn't considered ahead of time to be quite as deep as it turned out to be retrospect, nor was the 1991 crop considered to be such a future star-studded pack beyond the massive hype surrounding Eric Lindros.
Only time will tell.
In the meantime, Flyers scouting director Chris Pryor opined that this year's draft will have players of first-round quality available in later rounds because the depth of prospects will push some quality prospects down lower than they might have gone in other draft years. ''
To use a baseball analogy, good drafting has historically been about hitting for average with a few home runs when solid contact is made and the ball keeps carrying. In 2015, there are plenty of potential scoring forwards and puck-moving defensemen, with the caveat that teams are going to have get a little bit lucky with their development.
Viewed across the entire crop, there appears to be above-average potential for hindsight "re-drafting" five years down the road to produce a considerably different valuation; perhaps even a few of those perennial lamentations over why certain future stars were bypassed in favor or someone who became a role player (or worse, missed entirely). Hindsight will always be 20-20.
A scout from another organization put it this way, "Depth, to me, is about making those risk-reward decisions. Outside the top two, no prospect is without a question mark or two. Maybe you wish this kid was a little bigger or that one might need to work on his skating. A lot of kids need to add [muscle] and get better away from the puck, so that's pretty much a constant ever year. But there's also a fairly high number of so-called 'safer' picks this year, although I don't like that term. That's true every year, yeah, but there's more of those risk-reward decisions this year and that's not a bad thing."
On a consensus basis, the 2015 crop appears to be deeper-than-average for QMJHL players, defensemen, forwards with two-way upside and players of average to below-average size with high skill levels. The WHL and especially USHL have some notables -- the USHL is typically a fairly low-scoring league, and there are several players who put up big numbers there this season. Two of the top three consensus defensemen already have a successful year of college hockey under their belts, and the other had a remarkable solid WHL season.
Beyond Connor McDavid and Mitch Marner, the OHL crop is widely considered average to below-average this year in terms of high-end depth. Along with what overall is considered an average year for the European leagues -- albeit with a handful of well-regarded European players already playing in North American junior leagues -- this is where many of those who feel the 2015 Draft is overhyped based their opinion.
Depending on the source, the goaltending crop either has one standout (Russian netminder Ilya Samsonov) and then a lot of parity across a half-dozen or so decent but raw prospects or else no true standouts at this point. The depth seems decent but not overwhelming in terms of Russian prospects (with the struggles of the Russian economy and corresponding weakening of the KHL, the "signability" concerns may lessen), a few more good Czech-born prospects than in most recent drafts and average elsewhere in Europe.
2) Here is a good example of the types of risk-reward decisions that face NHL teams in their rankings this year and why pre-draft scoring numbers often have little to do with how scouts rate one prospect relative to another: U.S. National Team Development Program forwards Colin White and Jeremy Bracco.
It seems unlikely that White, a center, will be around when the Flyers pick 29th overall, although that is the exact spot on the North American list where Central Scouting has him ranked and Craig Button had him 32nd overall in his final Craig's List rankings. The scuttlebutt on White is that numerous NHL organization regard him very highly and his Central Scouting rating would probably have been higher had he not missed time with mononucleosis and a wrist fracture.
White is considered a safe pick, because he already plays a pro-caliber game without the puck and is a plus skater. The Boston College commit is said to have good work habits on and off the ice. McKeen's rates him as the top defensive forward in the draft and an NHL scout said he's "one of the top five 200-foot guys this year." The only question mark is just how much offensive upside White has on top of being a strong defensive player.
In ranking White 19th overall, The Hockey News dared to invoke a Patrice Bergeron comparison. Despite his health issues and defensive responsibilities, White was a shade below a point-per-game (four goals, 17 points in 20 games) at the USHL level. He was fully healthy by the time the Under-18 Worlds came around and was a dominant two-way player for the gold medalist Americans, including six goals and nine points in seven games. THN also made a comparison to Logan Couturer in terms of his draft-year production being held back by injury.
On the flip side of the coin, Bracco is a divisive prospect. The natural winger, who stands just 5-foot-9 or 5-foot-10 (depending on the source), plays with a lot of offensive flair and is a shifty player from the blueline in. Even his critics concede the player -- who racked up 30 goals, 64 assists and 94 points with the US NTDP, 14 goals and 32 points in 24 games against USHL competition and 13 points in seven games at the Under-18 Worlds -- has NHL caliber puck skills and creativity.
However, Bracco has his share of critics. The biggest critic was The Hockey News, which ranked him 74th overall, claimed Bracco has "soured scouts with his attitude." McKeen's had Bracco 47th, citing defensive concerns, a need to improve on the walls, lacking explosive speed and his "brashness." Bob Mckenzie also wasn't a big fan, ranking him 53rd on his TSN list, while Craig Button has him 60th. Central Scouting had Bracco rated 60th on its North American skater list. The most common concern is that the combination of being small without being an extremely fleet skater can be tough to overcome at the pro level for a player whose bread and butter is setting up and finishing scoring chances.
On the flip side, International Scouting Services has a higher opinion of Bracco, ranking him 28th overall. This is based on his high skill level. The ISS is also a bit higher on his speed.
Come draft day, some NHL team that has a similar assessment to ISS could wind up drafting Bracco in the late stages of the first round -- or else he could be around late in the second round or even into the third. Conversely, there's almost no chance that White slips into the second round.
3) Bracco is far from the only smallish player in the draft pool with a high skill level. Mitch Marner, whom some have compared to Chicago Blackhawks superstar Patrick Kane in terms of being a can't-miss offensive talent despite his lack of size is likely to be off the board before the Flyers make the seventh overall pick.
However, when the Flyers make the 29th overall pick, there is pretty decent shot at least a few somewhat similar players -- undersized but high enough skill to overlook it -- will be available. Ottawa 67s center Travis Konecny (who may be converted to wing as a pro) is one such possibility. So is Shawingan center Anthony Beauvillier.
Meanwhile, Oshawa Generals defenseman Mitch Vande Sompel is a player who could make some team look very smart down the line if his game translates to the professional level. He is an excellent offensive defenseman and player whom many consider to have a high degree of hockey sense. As THN notes, Vande Sompel runs the power play point and plays defense at even strength but actually plays forward on many penalty kills. He has very good speed, positioning and anticipation.
However, Vande Sompel also stands a generously listed 5-foot-10 (he looked smaller than that on broadcasts of the OHL playoffs and Memorial Cup) and there are question marks about whether he can defend at the pro level. His rankings are all over the place. Button, the player's strongest mainstream pundit proponent, has him 25th overall. McKenzie had him 63rd. Central Scouting placed him 34th on the North American list, whereas ISS projected him in third-round range (74th overall). McKeen's had him 49th, but that is actually five spots north of where they ranked 6-foot-5 defensive defenseman Brandon Carlo, whom some consider a potential late first-round pick.
McKeen's had smallish Erie Otters defenseman Travis Dermott ranked 30th overall. THN was much more conservative, rating him 77th but calling him an "under-the-radar" prospect for the offensive skill he showed while overshadowed by all the attention paid to forwards McDavid and Dylan Strome. ISS had Dermott 58th, McKenzie had him 42nd and Button ranked him 40th.
4) Every year, I like to tab one or two European league sleepers whose upside could be higher than their draft position. The Flyers got a nice low-risk, high-value pick a year ago in fifth-round pick Oskar Lindblom (who is currently expected by the organization to play one additional year in Sweden despite Philadelphia Daily News speculation that he may start next season in the AHL with the Lehigh Valley Phantoms).
According to Pryor, there are less skating concerns in Lindblom's case than there were a year ago. As he's continued to gain physical strength, he's also started to improve his explosiveness as a skater even if he'll never be confused with New York Rangers forward Carl Hagelin in the pure speed department. In the meantime, Lindblom is developing into a bull along the walls, hard on the puck and willing to get his nose dirty in the scoring areas along with being an increasingly solid two-way player. As such, he has the potential to adapt to different roles -- possibly a top-six, possibly a bottom-six -- when he eventually comes over to North America.
As the Detroit Red Wings so often do, they also nabbed a low-risk, high-yield type last year in seventh rounder Axel Holmström. Like unrelated namesake Tomas, has the makings of a NHLer if he can improve his skating. He is a smart and gritty player and actually has better natural hands than the Demolition Man ever did.
In 2015, keep an eye out for where HV71 Jönköping left winger Filip Ahl gets drafted and how his subsequent development tracks from year-to-year. The son of longtime HV71 goalie Boo Ahl, is physically mature at 6-foot-4 and 210 pounds, is tough to separate from the puck and has very good hands. He is not yet a regular in the Swedish Hockey League because he needs skating refinement and defensive improvement to play in the highly structured top league. Ahl is really not all that different in makeup than other power forward types who are higher ranked in most North American circles.
Central Scouting has Ahl ninth on its European list. Button has the winger 74th on his list, ISS has him 93rd overall, McKeen's placed him 63rd, THN had him 93rd and he did not make the McKenzie/TSN rankings.
In a previous blog, I discussed Slovakian forward Radovan Bondra, who is even bigger physically than Ahl but has not demonstrated as much offensive upside. Tomorrow, I will discuss a handful of Russian prospects.
5) The Flyers will never hear the end of the Dec. 2005 trade that sent then-stymied young forward Patrick Sharp to the Chicago Blackhawks in exchange for AHL/NHL swingman Matt Ellison. The trade ended up becoming one of the most lopsided deals in NHL history, as Sharp became an NHL All-Star caliber player for Chicago while Ellison's skating issues relegated him to being mostly a decent AHL player (later a good KHL one) who could not hold down a regular NHL spot.
It should be remembered, however, that no one had any inkling at the time that Sharp had the makings of much more than a decent NHL role player. He was a solid all-around AHL player during his time with the Phantoms, but was not as much of a standout as Jeff Carter, Mike Richards or R.J. Umberger. He showed some flashes in the NHL with the Flyers, but was not able to gain the trust of Ken Hitchcock.
Also keep in mind that Sharp was not even drafted until age 20, when the Flyers made him a third round pick out of the collegiate ranks. He was simply a late-bloomer who later found stardom. The trade with Chicago seemed like a fairly innocuous one at the time, although even then Sharp seemed a little better suited to the NHL.
Sometimes the most minor trades end up being game-changers and sometimes seeming blockbusters end up having minimal impact. Eleven years ago tomorrow, the Flyers traded their seventh round pick in the 2003 draft and got an extra sixth rounder in 2004, where they took Slovakian forward Ladislav Scurko. They flipped their seventh-rounder to the San Jose Sharks in the exchange. The Sharks took Joe Pavelski with the pick, 203rd overall.
Today, of course, Pavelski is an NHL star. Scurko, who never panned out as an NHL prospect, spent time in prison in Slovakia after confessing to stabbing referee Marek Liptaj to death in a non-hockey dispute that turned violent.
No matter how the two players turned out, it would be ridiculous to list this "trade" among the worst the Flyers have ever made. It was a very minor move at the time, not some grand theft by San Jose because they had any idea that Pavelski was bound for stardom. In Patrick Sharp's case, the Blackhawks did not know something about Sharp that Philly didn't. They hit the lottery from a seemingly minor trade.
From the sound of things, the Sharp era in Chicago may be coming to an end after the team just celebrated its third Stanley Cup championship in the last six years. For salary cap reasons, Sharp seems likely to get traded at the draft. Philadelphia is not one of the rumored destinations.