Heading into the World Cup of Hockey in September not only will Matt Murray be dressed like a ninja, but it is also his starting goaltender job to lose
Chiarelli on Murray: "Just based on his body of work, what he’s done, you can’t ignore that. He’s the lead dog right now."
— Stephen Whyno (@SWhyno) September 1, 2016
Matt Murray has had a great start to his professional career. He set AHL records (shutout streak, total shutouts in a year)during his time with WB/S and so far in his NHL career he has given his team everything they have needed at the goaltender position.
His track record to this point is why he is going to be the lead guy heading into the tournament. That doesn't mean he won't be pushed by the other goaltenders on Team North America because they are talented as well. None of the three candidates has a wealth of NHL experience however. For that reason I am using both regular season and playoff stats to increase the sample size (more so for Murray).
Each goaltender is at or above league average (~.921) in even-strength save percentage.
Matt Murray has the highest high danger save percentage out of any goalie from 2013-14 to 2015-16 that has played at least 750 minutes.
During that same sample Connor Hellebuyck has a HDSV% of .8205 which is comparable to Marc-Andre Fleury at .8206. Obviously a huge difference in sample size between Fleury and Hellebuyck but I wanted to use somebody familiar for a reference point.
John Gibson's HDSV% is way low compared to his two Team North America counterparts and it is low when compared to NHL goalies. He is below average in this department.
Why is HDSV% important? It is one of the defining statistics that shows the "skill" of a goaltender. There isn't as much variance in LDSV% or MDSV%. It is the more difficult shots that separate the best goaltenders in the world.
If I were to pick one of the two goalies to surpass Murray it would be Hellebuyck
They both compare favorably at the NHL level, but again the sample sizes are so small at this point. If we wanted to bring the AHL stats into the discussion to increase the sample size they would be the following:
Matt Murray 71 GP .936 all situations save percentage Connor Hellebuyck 88 GP .921 all situations save percentage
Considering Matt Murray has the statistical edge and was a starting goaltender on a Stanley Cup winning team you can see why North America would lean in his direction at the beginning of this process. If he stumbles Connor Hellebuyck isn't a bad fallback option.
Thanks for reading!