A 4-0 loss to the Ottawa Senators on Saturday has the Toronto Maple Leafs one step closer to finishing last overall and the best odds at winning the NHL Draft Lottery, but even if they do not end up picking Auston Matthews in Buffalo three months from now, their 2015-16 season will have not been a waste.
Toronto currently holds a six point margin on the Winnipeg Jets, Edmonton Oilers and Calgary Flames with less than a month remaining in the regular season.
If the Leafs stay at the bottom of the standings, it will give them a 20% chance of selecting first and picking Matthews, who could be as impactful as Connor McDavid and Jack Eichel, but if they do not win the top pick, their odds increase to 25% to select second and near 30% of picking third.
Toronto Sun columnist Steve Simmons believes the Leafs having one chance in five of picking the Scottsdale, AZ native is cruel, but that ignores the significant talent of top prospects Jesse Puljujarvi, Patrik Laine and Matthew Tkachuk and their potential to be franchise cornerstones.
Big wingers Puljujarvi and Laine led Finland to Gold at the 2016 World Junior Championship and Tkachuk (the son of former NHLer Keith) played well for Team USA in Helsinki and is having an excellent season alongside Mitch Marner with the London Knights.
Most analysts have these four players at the top level of the upcoming draft, slightly ahead forward Pierre-Luc Dubois and defenseman Jakob Chychrun, just as McDavid and Eichel were thought of more highly than Dylan Strome, Marner and Noah Hanifin 12 months ago.
As with 2015, the main difference between selecting first or lower at the top of the draft could be the time it takes for players to make the NHL.
McDavid, Eichel and Hanifin made the Oilers, Sabres and Hurricanes out of training camp, while Strome and Marner were sent back to Junior to hone their game and mature physically.
Matthews is almost certain to be in the NHL next season after playing against adults in the Swiss League. Puljujarvi and Laine have a chance based on their size, skating ability and skill, while Tkachuk would likely return to the OHL for another year.
Team President Brendan Shanahan and GM Lou Lamoriello knew that even if the Leafs were successful at bottoming the club out, good fortune would be necessary to get the top pick for the first time since 1985. If they are not able to select Matthews, Toronto will have another top prospect in the pipeline, but it may be two or three years before fans see them.
If Shanahan and Lamoriello are looking to establish a winning culture with the Leafs as early as next season (as indicated in recent days), they cannot rely solely on the Draft to make that possible. That goal can only be accomplished by adding young NHL veterans via trade or free agency to provide cover and support for their young players as they gain experience.
*******
Toronto plays their second of back-to-back road games against the Red Wings at Joe Louis Arena on Sunday night.
Detroit has 79 points and is in a tight battle with Pittsburgh and Philadelphia for one of the wild cards spots in the Eastern Conference. The Penguins one point ahead of the Wings with a 5-3 win over the Rangers at Madison Square Garden Sunday afternoon, countering Detroit's 3-2 overtime victory over the Broadway Blueshirts on Saturday.
Jonathan Bernier is expected to start for Toronto, after Garret Sparks allowed four goals on 17 shots against the Senators. Petr Mrazek got his 26th victory of the season against New York, which likely means that Jimmy Howard will be between the pipes for the Wings.
*******If you are interested in sponsorship or advertising your business in the Greater Toronto / Southern Ontario area on this column, please send a message for more information by clicking on the “Contact… button at the top of the page.*******
Note : Continue to check back to my column on Hockeybuzz throughout the day for the latest Leafs updates or Follow @mikeinbuffalo on Twitter
KINDLE USERS: Please sign up for Maple Leafs Buzz, which includes a free-of-charge 14-day trial and is just 99 cents per month afterwards. For more information click here.