All the polls, articles and “slip ups… on social media aside, the positioning of the Toronto Maple Leafs to have success over the next few seasons could be as much of a determining factor for Steven Stamkos swapping blue-and-white jerseys next July as how the current situation stands with the Tampa Bay Lightning.
There is no way to gauge whether the Markham, ON native has legitimate interest in signing with the Leafs next summer or if Toronto would be willing to expend the financial resources to bring the 25-year-old into the fold so early into their rebuilding plan, but the furor caused by Stamkos “liking… a tweet about Toronto pursuing him next summer has once again brought the issue to the forefront.
You just can't make this stuff up, #Leafs fans. :) pic.twitter.com/5Fg1CTwxyY
— Michael Augello (@MikeInBuffalo) December 9, 2015The likelihood of Stamkos hitting the open market next summer and leaving the club that drafted him first overall in 2007 has shifted from a dream scenario to the realm of possibility. TSN’s Bob McKenzie reported on Thursday that both Lightning management and Newport Sports(Stamkos representatives) have been tight lipped about contract talks, but indications are that the two sides have not exchanged parameters and may have reservations about signing a new deal.
The reported friction between Tampa coach Jon Cooper and the Lightning team captain may be overblown, but there is clearly some unhappiness on the part of Stamkos being shifted from center to right wing during their Cup run last season and again recently after Cooper signed a contract extension.
Tampa has wingers Alex Killorn and Nikita Kucherov looking for new contracts in 2016 and winger Ondrej Palat, center Tyler Johnson, defenseman Victor Hedman and goalie Ben Bishop’s deals expiring in 2017.
Signing Stamkos to a new contract in the same ballpark as Jonathan Toews and Patrick Kane may necessitate GM Steve Yzerman shedding salaries like Valtteri Filppula or Ryan Callahan and could result in not being able to re-sign a key cog like Hedman, who could demand nearly double his current $4 Million salary as an unrestricted free agent.
The prospect of playing for his hometown team and under the tutelage of Stanley Cup winner Mike Babcock might be powerful persuaders for Stamkos, but to increase their chances, the Leafs are going to have to put their house in order before July 1.
Toronto has the financial wherewithal to spend to the salary cap, but will need enough flexibility after adding Stamkos to bring in more players to make the Leafs a more complete team.
Having Mitch Marner, William Nylander, Connor Brown and their 2016 first round pick on entry-level deals, along with the added room of Nathan Horton’s contract on LTIR will help counter the large cap hit for the first half of a potential Stamkos contract, but eventually those youngsters will need to be signed long-term.
For the Leafs to not be put back into a cap crunch as they had with Phil Kessel or to prevent a repetition of the Mats Sundin scenario where a franchise player was not surrounded with enough complementary players to make the club a consistent winner, GM Lou Lamoriello will need clear cap space by moving defenseman Dion Phaneuf’s contract and another significant salary in Joffrey Lupul or Nazem Kadri.
Phaneuf has likely improved his trade value playing on the second pairing and with the lack of defensemen available at the deadline, it could be the best opportunity to move the 30-year-old with five years left on his deal at $7 Million.
Lupul has two years remaining and might be intriguing for a club at the deadline looking for offense, but it will likely take Toronto retaining some of his $5.25 Million salary to get a deal done.
Kadri looking for a long-term extension or in arbitration could cost the Leafs over $5 Million next season and that would be a costly third-line center playing behind Stamkos and potentially Nylander, while Tyler Bozak at $4.2 Million provides the skill set more conducive to a third line center and is under contract for another two years at $4.2 Million.
While all this analysis may be for naught if Stamkos decides to sign on the dotted line or agrees to be traded before February 29, it is beginning to feel as if #91 will at least test the market next summer. If he does, Toronto will have to be not only an attractive destination, they will need to do a number of things right and have a little bit of luck.
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