With a 3-1 loss to the last place Columbus Blue Jackets on Wednesday, the Toronto Maple Leafs appear to have come back down to reality and resumed the track that most of their fan base expected from this season, positioning themselves for a top five pick at the NHL Draft in Buffalo next June and getting ready to trade a number of short-term contracts before the February 29th trade deadline.
The trades are likely to start after the All-Star break, but teams like the Los Angeles Kings, Philadelphia Flyers, Nashville Predators and Blue Jackets have already gotten a jump on the rest of the league with significant moves last week. The question is who will be heading out and what will GM Lou Lamoriello get for him?
It's time to go to Twitter to answer some of your questions:
@MikeInBuffalo Even though he's injured, could JVR be moved at the deadline? Or is the draft more likely?
— Josh Rubin (@jprterp) January 14, 2016A – Extremely doubtful that the Leafs will move James van Riemsdyk this season or over the summer. The 26-year-old winger led Toronto in scoring at the time of his foot injury last weekend, represents the only consistent scorer on the club and is signed for another two seasons at a very reasonable $4.25 Million salary.
The Leafs have young offensive talent in William Nylander and Mitch Marner coming and could be in the hunt for Steven Stamkos if he hits free agency, but those players will need to play with a finisher like van Riemsdyk to be more effective.
If the Leafs do entertain a trade, it is more likely to occur at the trade deadline next season or in the summer of 2017, when van Riemsdyk has one year left on his contract and Toronto has more of an idea of what it will cost to re-sign him.
@MikeInBuffalo If Leafs win lottery and Yotes offered 2 of Domi, Duclair or Strome + their 1st rd pick. Do you make that deal?
— Mass (@MassF) January 14, 2016A – This has been a scenario I’ve played out in my head over the last few months and it would be impossible to consider as long as Arizona is in the race for a playoff spot in the Pacific Division, since the gap between the #1 overall pick and the Coyotes pick could be as many as 20 selections.
There is obvious motivation for GM Don Maloney to want to select Auston Matthews, not only due to the 18-year-old being the top rated prospect in the 2016 Draft, but also because he hails from Scottsdale, AZ. To pass up Matthews, who could be the top line center that Toronto has been looking for since Mats Sundin, the Leafs would have to be convinced that Dylan Strome is capable of being as good as Matthews and that whoever else they get in the deal would make up the difference.
Unless Maloney overpaid and gave up a couple 1st’s along with Strome and a top prospect like Christian Dvorak, it would be too risky.
@MikeInBuffalo what care the percentages that both Bernier and Reimer are traded this season?
— Scott M Holmes (@scoresscotty) January 14, 2016A – Based on the inconsistency of Jonathan Bernier and the fact that he has another season on his contract at over $4 Million, the odds of the Leafs finding a trading partner are extremely low. James Reimer is a pending unrestricted free agent and after a successful run in November, missed most of December with groin problems. It is expected that the goalies will split duties, so Reimer can prove to interested NHL teams that he can stay healthy prior to the February 29th trade deadline.
Since you asked for percentages, Bernier would be around 10% and Reimer would be 85%.
@MikeInBuffalo how many non-UFA players would you expect to be moved at trade deadline?
— Dino da man (@DaTruefann) January 14, 2016A – Trading players with term remaining on their contracts has been made more difficult with the recent news of the declining value of the Canadian dollar. Tyler Bozak has been able to rehabilitate his value with a good first half playing without Phil Kessel, Leo Komarov is an attractive commodity to a playoff-bound team looks for grit and goal scoring and Nazem Kadri could be shopped if the Leafs are wary of paying him big money on a new contract over the summer.
Lamoriello may be able to move one long-term deal before the deadline, but those moves are more likely to occur before the Draft or in early July.
@MikeInBuffalo What happens with Lupul and the Leafs? Is a trade even possible with a bad contract and his struggles? Buyout option?
— Jarod Neithercut (@JarodNeithercut) January 14, 2016A – The chances of Joffrey Lupul being traded improved from unlikely to possible up until his trip to injured reserve in late November. At that point, the 32-year-old winger had eight goals in 23 games playing mostly on the checking line, but has scored only once in 13 games since returning.
With two more seasons at $5.25 Million, Lupul could be traded if the Leafs take back an equivalent salary or another team’s problem contract like the David Clarkson – Nathan Horton deal last year, but the more likely scenario is a buyout after the season. The two remaining years total $9 Million in salary, which would result in two-thirds of that amount ($6 Million) being spread out over the next four seasons (an average of $1.5 Million per year).
@MikeInBuffalo if the leafs deal all their ufa's, do they enough on the farm to replace those they dealt? And replace those on the Marlies?
— Martin (@O_Grech_kin) January 14, 2016A – Toronto will be able to fill their roster if they move their seven pending UFA’s. Veterans like Mark Arcobello, Rich Clune, Matt Frattin and Jeremy Morin will likely get the call, as well as a rotation of younger Marlies like Josh Leivo and Sam Carrick.
On defense, the departure of Roman Polak may finally give Frank Corrado the long look that he has been waiting for all season or Scott Harrington could be in line to return.
Ray Emery was added on a professional tryout when Reimer was injured last month, but with everyone healthy and Garret Sparks and Antoine Bibeau back with the Toronto Marlies, the organization is keeping the veteran goalie around. You have to think that he staying as insurance in case Sparks and/or Reimer are re-injured, but perhaps also because he can step in as an NHL backup if the Leafs trade a goalie.
You also have to consider that Toronto could be taking back players in the deals they make as cap relief to get more assets, as they did last season with Eric Brewer, Joakim Lindstrom and Zach Sill.
@MikeInBuffalo If Montreal continues to flounder, could they make a deal with the Leafs? Or highly unlikely because they're the Habs?
— Justin Giovannetti (@JVGiovannetti) January 14, 2016A – At this point, trading with division rivals is quite meaningless. Lamoriello would trade with anyone in the league (including teams in the Atlantic Division) as long as their offer is as good or better than anyone else’s.
@MikeInBuffalo What list of our top prospects do you think we will see with the big club next year?
— Scott Buchanan (@ScottBuchanan) January 14, 2016A – William Nylander, Mitch Marner, Nikita Soshnikov, Zach Hyman, Connor Brown, Brendan Leipsic and Andreas Johnson at forward. Viktor Loov, Stuart Percy, Rinat Valiev on the blueline and Garret Sparks in goal. This does not mean they will play the full season with the Leafs, but the youngsters will be given a look.
Marner may present a quandary for Toronto if he is not ready for the NHL as a 19-year-old. The 2015 top pick cannot be sent to the AHL, which would mean being sent back to the OHL for another season.
@MikeInBuffalo soshnikov or leipsic have a chance to jump into 3rd or 4th line duties this year after trades and injuries?
— Kevin Lane (@rocko_63) January 14, 2016A – It is possible that some youngsters could see NHL action for a game or two at the end of the season, but the organization may want to limit the lineup disruption to the Marlies, who are legitimate Calder Cup contenders. The Leafs (and all NHL teams) are limited to four non-emergency call-ups after the trade deadline, so they will have to pick and choose who they want to promote.
@MikeInBuffalo When is Connor Brown coming back and can he still make a difference this year?
— Eli Cohen (@eli362) January 14, 2016A – The AHL rookie-scoring leader has been out for two-and-a-half months and missed 31 games with a broken foot, but is out of the walking boot and skated this week with injured forwards Nick Spaling and William Nylander. It is likely that Brown will return before the end of the month, but maybe not as early as next Wednesday, when the Marlies return home from a lengthy five-game road trip.
@MikeInBuffalo which Leafs player will bring in the biggest return and what do you think it will be?
— Wendel Mania (@Wendel_Mania) January 14, 2016A – Limiting your question to the pending UFA’s, the answer would be Roman Polak. Defensemen are at a premium and the 29-year-old has a reasonable salary, playoff experience, toughness and shoots right-handed. It is not out of the question that the Leafs could get a second-round pick for Polak, while James Reimer or PA Parenteau are more likely to get a third rounder in return.
@MikeInBuffalo Who starts for the #Leafs in goal opening day 2016?
— Ryan Johnson (@1967beleaf) January 14, 2016A – The starting goalie may not be on the roster, but my conservative guess will be Jonathan Bernier. Thanks for all your questions
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