Somewhere in between the Stanley Cup finals, the AHL finals, the NBA finals, draft preparation, and everything else, Elliotte Friedman managed to put out another fine 30 Thoughts article. As always, there was enough to chew on in there to get a lot of people talking. Read the full article right here.
One such thing was the apparent availability of Avalanche center Ryan O'Reilly. As Friedman alluded to, apparently the Avs are ready and willing to deal the 24-year old center. Here is the blurb from Friedman's 30 Thoughts:
7. The history between Ryan O’Reilly and the Colorado Avalanche is well-documented. On-ice, no issues. Patrick Roy loves him, and he’s delivered. At the negotiating table, they are like teachers and a Canadian provincial government. What makes this speculation about O’Reilly different is the calendar. He is one year from unrestricted free agency. That’s why executive vice-president Joe Sakic is testing the centre’s value, letting teams know he’s willing to listen. It is believed the Avalanche want at least a significant defenceman in return. (I assumed a lefty because both Tyson Barrie and Erik Johnson shoot right, but one source disputed that.) Colorado’s secrecy makes a few things difficult to clarify, as in: how many clubs are involved, because it’s not everybody. Even more critical: will anyone be allowed to negotiate with O’Reilly in advance of a potential trade? It’s hard to see the Avalanche maxing out on a return without it.
Then, on L.A. Kings Insider, Jon Rosen hinted that the Kings may be potentially kicking the tires. (along with many other teams to be honest.)
From Rosen:
I wouldn’t be surprised to learn that the Kings are kicking his tires, even if they’re pressed against the cap and O’Reilly will cost $6,000,000 in 2015-16 before becoming an unrestricted free agent next summer. According to one source within the organization, the Kings were extremely high on O’Reilly leading into the 2009 NHL Draft (as many teams were) and had pursued trades to move up to try to be in position to select him.
It is an interesting note given the source. Jon does not normally put out information of this regard unless it is on very high authority. Would the Kings be willing to move a key defenseman in order to bring back some much needed center depth?
Well, let's take a look at O'Reilly for a minute and what he would really bring to the table.
The 24-year old would be a pricey $6.0MM investment, and one that would be coming up for free agency next season. And we all remember what a headache his contractual negotiations wore in the past right?
However, from a strictly hockey standpoint, O'Reilly is as good a top 6 center as you are going to get in this league outside of the elite tier of centers.
He was also very strong on the draw, winning nearly 54% of his faceoffs.
That is a good start.
In terms of deployment and production, the former Erie Otter was on a very high level. He had a -2.76 ZSO relative, meaning he was weighted more on defensive zone draws and zone starts than offensive. Along with that he put up 55 points and came close to 40 assists for a second straight year. In short, he is a solid pass first, two-way center. No wonder the Kings and many other teams have had and will have interest. His corsi for was at a rough 46% last year, but it is good to take in the whole scope of things. Colorado, as a whole, was a 43.2% possession team last year at even strength. He was actually third on the entire team in CF% behind Landeskog and MacKinnon. His unsightly 59.1 corsi against per 60 rate was actually 2nd best on the team. That gives you a little insight into just how bad Colorado was in terms of possession this year.
To make him a little more "King" like in theory, look at where shots generally come from when O'Reilly is on the ice.
He is NOT a perimeter player, and his hextally from War On Ice shows that. That is something that the Kings have tried to hone in on with players. Marian Gaborik was a prime example. His scoring always comes in and around the chaos in front of goal. O'Reilly seems to score in a similar fashion.
And while the numbers are still ugly, you can see the difference he makes defensively.
All in all, these are really positive things. If any team were able to pry O'Reilly out of Denver, it would be a huge score.
Many of you are probably wondering where the Kings would even squeeze him in. It would be almost unjust to utilize him as a third line center given the price and production, but it could be a possibility. The other possibility is that the Kings shift Jeff Carter back to wing, a position he has been very comfortable with in the past. There is currently a vacancy in the top 6 for a winger with the anticipated departure of Justin Williams. If the top two lines were to consist of Kopitar, Gaborik, Carter, Toffoli, Pearson, and O'Reilly that would be quite the punch.
On the more realistic side, you have to give to get. The Avalanche, as Friedman notes, want at least a significant defenseman in return. Potentially a lefty. "Significant" is the word, so we are not talking Alec Martinez or Brayden McNabb here folks. This is Voynov-Muzzin territory. Unless the Kings want to package the first round selection with something, then that could be very interesting. On one hand you have an ACTUAL top 6 center who is still young, on the other hand you have a top 15 pick that could also turn into something like a top 6 center. Actuality versus prophecy. When the Kings traded Brayden Schenn to Philadelphia for Mike Richards, it was under the theory that at Schenn's ceiling he was going to be no better than the player they just received in Mike Richards. Obviously things may not have turned out quite as planned with Richards, but the logic was there. Could the Kings pull off a similar swap with Colorado? Who knows. If the interest is there as it is presumed to be, I would expect any and all trade scenarios have been talked about between the two GMs.
Bottom line: O'Reilly is a heck of a player, and one that the Kings made a lot of attempts to get at during his draft year. I doubt what they saw then has faded any now. If the money were there and the price is right, would you pull the trigger? He would definitely be a boost to the Kings top six.
Graphs provided by War On Ice.
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