Game Day and Food for Thought
So yes I am currently in a state of shock after that Super Bowl ending and while utterly distraught it’s still a game. That being said it does not mean there are some issues with the Jets that should be ignored. Hutch in net tonight and perhaps a Postma- Pardy bottom pairing is used.
Tonight, and tomorrow in Vancouver are rather critical games for the recent 0 and 3 Jets since they returned from the all-star break. The Flames and Canucks along with the Jets are all jockeying for those final spots in the West and right now there are only 3 points between the three of them.
By now most in Winnipeg are aware that the Jets are stats darlings of the progessive NHL writers and analysts. There’s no need to review those stats and as you have seen I’m not including them as often as I once did. I’ll talk about that in a later blog but in a quick nutshell I think they are more niche interest and there are times to use that niche.
As for the Jets while their underlying numbers are showing the benefits of a new coach and above average (for them) goaltending the Jets are far and above the water line they usually find themselves in February. But which way are they heading?
The recent 0-3 skid has fans concerned and with a recent probability of 90% making the playoffs the Jets are now much lower at 68.9%. That’s how fast things can change but the interesting thing is if teams are in a playoff spot by December they rarely give it up over the long term. The Jets could find themselves being the exception this year if current play continues.
Speaking of current play let’s look back on where the Jets have been this time in previous seasons and where they ended up.
This time a year ago the Jets were 27-25-5 for 59 points compared to 26-17-8 for 60 points in 51 games. Last year again they were 30-26-6 as of March 2 for 66 points and then by April 2nd they were 34-33-10 for 78 points. In 20 games they earned 19 points. Look back three seasons ago and see the same scenario:
Feb 2nd 2012 24-22-6 for 54 points Mar 2nd 2012 31-27-8 for 70 points Apr 2nd 2012 36-34-9 for 81 points The Jets only managed a .500 record for points percentage for those 27 games from Feb 2nd to April second.
Even in the lockout season, with only 48 games to be played the Jets were:
Mar 2nd 10-10-1 for 21 points Apr 2nd 18-18-2 for 38 points
And thus the second half burnout or fade away trend becomes more than fluke. There are only three previous seasons to consider this a trend in Winnipeg but an 0-3 start to the unofficial second half stretch this year seems far to similar to seasons past. If the Jets go .500 for points over the next 31 games and earn 30 they will plateau out at 90 points for the season. Is that even enough to make the post season if no other team below them surges?
This is where the ‘Maurice effect’ will become the tipping point as the coach is even admitting to tendencies that many thought were long gone and exorcised from the team. If this is a changed group, one that will not fade again down the stretch when the games become tighter, more meaningful then it will be on the coach as it’s the same players. That’s if the change is to be positive. Now if the fans see the same fade as they have three previous seasons what happens then? Are excuses coming and blame assigned?
That’s the danger of putting too much on the coach, the goalie and not across the team. Elite level goaltending hides weaknesses and problems. A coach can overcome lack of talent through systems and disciplined play but when those vanish what happens?
Some would say 0-3 record with perhaps a 1-5 run with the next three games finishing with Chicago at home. That could be the skid that all teams seem to have in a season or it could be the start of the same old pattern the Jets have had every season in Winnipeg. If that were the case then there is some serious analysis and subsequent choices to be made, most Jets are hoping this coming off-season is beyond those nagging questions.
In 2010-11 the Thrashers down the stretch went:
Feb 2nd 24-20-9 for 57 points Mar 2nd 26-27-11 for 63 points Apr 2nd 33-33-12 for 77 points
The more things change right?