Jets Wrap up Home Stand Vs Blackhawks
Maybe there should be one more win or an extra point from the 6 games the Jets have played at home since they returned from the 4 game road trip to open the season, but it was never going to be easy. That’s the way it is in the central division and it does not become any easier tonight hosting the Stanley Cup champions.
That being said the Jets are only won OT loss from being tied with Chicago for 12 points
Yet Chicago has won 4 in a row while the Jets have toiled to win just two of five games at home during this stand. The concerns are becoming a bit more obvious and even the most casual of fans are beginning to wonder if this Jets team can reach where last year’s team finished. The Jets aren’t bad but they are not great and the play a risky game but is that what the data says?
If you follow some of the more technical hockey minds out there you might have come across DTMaboutheart from Hockey Graphs. He makes some cool graphics based on current stats work he is apart of at that website.
I won’t get into what xG is and how it is calculated, partially because I don’t quite get the math on it but, also they do a better job of explaining their own work so go visit Hockey Graphs. However, the charts are where we can learn a little bit about the Jets and where they sit compared to the competition.
Here is a neat one from today’s data provided by DTMaboutheart.
What is shows is how teams play based on the xGA vs xGF all per 60 minutes. The Jets are doing a decent job and finding success and doing it with some style, Minnesota and LA they are not.
The next chart is rather neat as it explores the idea of ‘you have to be good to be lucky’, at least that’s how I like to see it.
Here you see a team’s PDO measured against their xG for each team as of 10/29 and it shows Winnipeg in a favourable spot having some good luck and being good at playing the game of hockey.
If you take a look at Chicago they don’t seem to be quite as good as Winnipeg, at least in these two comparisons but that could be simply about luck, or chance as others would say.
Tonight is nonetheless a tall order for the Jets and with Pavelec playing on Tuesday it appears Michael Hutchinson goes back in against the Blackhawks. He’s had a good record against them and it might be a good ‘gut move’ before the team moves out on a road trip.
If you look ahead they play back-to-back games in Columbus and Montreal and then again in Toronto and Ottawa so it’s curious that Pavelec is not starting seeing as he probably will not play all four on the road trip. It might simply be his record against the Hawks and that old coach’s hunch.
It’s believed that Petan slots in for Peluso tonight and that would make sense based on the skill the Blackhawks bring as Russian rookie Panarin comes in to make his MTS Centre debut. This game should and could be a rodeo up and down the ice as many in the past have. It’s to the Jets advantage to slow down the game and it will be on the defense to improve how they play against the rush.
That part of the game has not been pretty as both Minnesota and LA found seems in the Jets defense and exposed them frequently. If the Blackhawks have watched tape they will be looking for the same thing I would expect. Choose your narrative on how this game as to be played to be won, it won’t matter. This is just another Central Division bar fight as Down Goes Brown has called the division. Last guy standing doesn’t always mean he’s the most sober and Jets should not worry about style points with this one, just play to win.