It is the calm before the storm of the NHL season, and I have kept the two big rivals in my back pocket for today, partly because nobody had much of an idea of what the Leafs lineup would look like and because many people, including myself, think the Habs and Sens will be in a pretty good battle for positioning for much of the season. I am getting them both out of the way today so we can get to predictions tomorrow and then opening night on Thursday, and its about time.
SENS vs LEAFS
The Leafs are a team in total rebuild mode, having shipped off their only real goal-scorer to Pittsburgh for a package of youth. They essentially have a bunch of guys that are pending UFAs after the end of the season and the plan is to showcase them and maybe get something at the trade deadline, while being in the Austin Matthews sweepstakes. Toronto fans are well aware of this, and for the most part I think they are accepting and see the likes of Kasperi Kapanen, Mitch Marner, William Nylander and Connor Brown as key pieces for the future core and are willing to wait.
Here is how the teams project to line up this season, now that the dust has settled somewhat, from dailyfaceoff.com:
UP FRONT
Even Mike Babcock wondered aloud publicly this off-season where the offense would come from. Say what you will about Kessel, the guy did score goals. The spotlight will be on Nazem Kadri to take a huge step forward and become the player he thinks he is. Ottawa is still shuffling left-wingers around but seem set with 3 pairings that they like in Turris-Stone, Zibanejad-Ryan and Pageau-Lazar. They are still all in their prime or not quite there yet and they want to build on the success of last year's finish (and for a couple of players redeem themselves from huge slumps to end the season).
THE BLUE LINE
The much maligned Dion Phaneuf still anchors the blue line, and you can take that however you want. Harrington, acquired as part of the Kessel deal, will be a solid rock to build around and a nice foil for Gardiner and Rielly as they all grow together. Ottawa knows what to expect from Karlsson and Methot, and the big questions surround Ceci and Wiercioch's ability to take the next step, and also Cowen to prove he can play in this league every night in a role that the Senators expect him to fill.
BETWEEN THE PIPES
Bernier should be the #1 in Toronto going forward, but there are still a lot of question marks surrounding him and whether or not he is going to be that guy. Reimer is a solid backup who has the Senators' number over the years. Health is always the concern around Craig Anderson, who seems to miss significant blocks of time in each season. Andrew Hammond (when he returns from his groin injury) will be looked at for solid play from time to time with nobody expecting the heroics of last season.
While these teams always play each other tough no matter what, this season the Leafs could/should hit rock bottom while the Sens will be in a playoff race of some sort.
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SENS vs HABS
On to a more interesting and even matchup. Buoyed by two playoff encounters in the last 3 years (and 1 win apiece), the Senators and Canadiens have become bigger rivals than ever heading into this season.
Here is how they are projected to line up heading into the season, from dailyfaceoff.com:
UP FRONT
Both sides are counting on their 2nd line centres to continue to make strides to where their respective clubs want them to be. Max Pacioretty is probably the top goal-scorer in the group, but there is questions abound on the Habs level as to what they will get from the likes of Alex Semin and Tomas Fleishmann, as well as what will become of Zack Kassian given his personal troubles over the past couple of days. Kassian was supposed to bring some size and skill to the Habs, something that they have needed for some time. I would say Ottawa is a tad deeper offensively and just ahead of the Habs in terms of stages of development from their younger guys at this point.
THE BLUE LINE
Again, they are pretty even, with each side having a perennial Norris contender as their leader. Both Subban and Karlsson have their supporters and detractors, but both are elite defensemen in the league. The Senators are certainly younger, but the questions I mentioned earlier exist for them. How much does Andrei Markov have left, and what impact will Jarred Tinordi have, or will he go down the same road that Jared Cowen did?
BETWEEN THE PIPES Carey Price is coming off a season for the ages, and for my money is the top goalie in the league, bar none. I said it about Martin Brodeur in the late 90's/early 2000's, that he was good enough to get a playoff spot pretty much on his own, and that is also the case for Price. As long as he is healthy the Habs will have an advantage on any team in net on most nights. Now as for Ottawa, Anderson can be hot and cold, and is very streaky. On his good nights he can be Price's equal, but he isn't as consistent and that is where the Habs hold the biggest edge.
I see this being a dogfight between the two teams for the second spot in the Atlantic division. There isn't much to choose between them as both teams have certain holes that might make a difference on any given night. It should be a fun race to watch no matter which side of the fence you sit on, but over the regular season I would call advantage Habs.