Drafting is only part of the equation when it comes to prospects. Development is arguably more important an aspect. It is hard to argue that the Kings have been one of the better development teams in the NHL. Especially when you look at how they have drafted and molded players into an immediate need for the NHL club.
When the Kings needed bottom 6 forwards, Dwight King, Jordan Nolan, and Kyle Clifford were ready to go. When the team has needed top 6 and top 9 offensive producers, Tyler Toffoli and Tanner Pearson appeared ready to step in. In the future, it looks like the Kings are going to need a solid shut down style defenseman and possibly a center. Here come Nick Shore, Derek Forbort, and potentially Jordan Weal in some capacity.
The best thing about all of the aforementioned names is that only one of them is a first round pick. The Kings have done well in shaping their picks, taking the time with them, and molding them into the spot they need when they need it. It is a similar approach to the Detroit Red Wings development staff, who always seem to have a player ready for the right spot. Wether it be Landon Ferraro, Gustav Nyqvist, or Petr Mrazek, Detroit never looks a step behind in the transition from veteran to youth.
Patience has been the key here. The Kings have been patient on numerous occasions with their prospects, sometimes to the point of frustration from the fanbase. Jordan Weal is an excellent example of this, as is Derek Forbort. You could argue that the Kings, had they been more patient with the likes of Hickey and Moulson, would have also been rewarded. Sometimes it works, sometimes it doesn’t. Take Colton Teubert for example.
We are currently going through the patience game with Weal, Colin Miller, and Michael Mersch. All of these players have had exceptional AHL seasons, and many are calling for a spot or a chance on the NHL roster. Not so fast says the Kings historically patient development. Just how long do the Kings usually wait though?
Going back through the year it is hard to find a player in the Kings system that didn’t spend at least two full seasons with the Monarchs AFTER finishing whatever junior career they were currently involved in. Outside of generational talents like Kopitar or Doughty, Manchester has been a regular and expected stop for Kings prospects.
Here is a list of players that have played in the AHL, and how it relates to their timeline to the NHL BEFORE becoming an NHL mainstay/Legit roster consideration. This list goes back to 2004, so the last 10 years of drafting.
(Only full/significant seasons apply)
3+ years
Jordan Weal Nicolas Deslauriers Linden Vey Brandon Kozun Slava Voynov Andrew Campbell Dwight King Thomas Hickey Trevor Lewis
2 years
Andy Andreoff Derek Forbort Jordan Nolan Alec Martinez
1/0 years
Scott Parse Drew Doughty Kyle Clifford Wayne Simmonds Andrei Loktionov Tyler Toffoli Tanner Pearson Nick Shore
That is a list of 21 players that have progressed through the LA Kings system. Thirteen of them have spent 2+ years playing in the minors.
That may not seem like a big deal, but let us compare that to a place like Edmonton. Admittedly Edmonton might not be the best comparison since they have had high draft picks and a lackluster NHL depth chart, but let’s roll with it for now anyway. We will only do recent history like we did with the Kings, dating back to about 2004.
3+ years
Devan Dubnyk Chris VandeVelde Theo Peckham Teemu Hartikainen Tyler Pitlick
2 years
Rob Schremp 1/0 years
Liam Reddox Andrew Cogliano Taylor Chorney Jeff Petry Sam Gagner Linus Omark Jordan Eberle Magnus Paajarvi Anton Lander Ryan Nugent-Hopkins Taylor Hall Nail Yakupov Oscar Klefbom Martin Marincin
That is 20 players who have made the progression from draft to the NHL through the system of the Edmonton Oilers. Of the 20, only six have spent more than 2 years in the AHL. A near three-fourths of their prospects drafted since 2004 that have made it to the NHL on a significant basis after having spent a year or less in the AHL. This could explain various things. AKA why they see a lot of draft selections get hurt early in their career (Taylor Hall, Sam Gagner), or struggle from the get go (Magnus Pajaarvi, Jeff Petry, Klefbom, Draisaitl)
To reiterate, yes this does have to do with the overall strength of the NHL roster and how high their draft picks have been. People would have lambasted the Oilers had they kept the likes of Ryan Nugent-Hopkins or Taylor Hall in the minors. Nevertheless, there is a meaty group of players like Anton Lander, Magnus Paajarvi, Linus Omark, and Jeff Petry, who probably would have been better served spending a year in the minors to adjust to the NHL physicality and speed. Also, that time could have been spent learning the Oilers system in a more low-pressure environment. The Sabres were starting to fall into a nasty habit of pushing players in, but this year opted to go a different route. They have filled out a roster with cheap journeymen players and attempted to relieve pressure on the more high profile players and prospects. They took their knocks to learn their lesson, mainly with Mikhail Grigorenko.
That is where the patience and approach of Los Angeles has paid off. Players look ready to step in almost immediately when the time comes. It is not fair to single out Edmonton though given all of their draft and development woes. So let us go to a middle of the road team. Dallas is probably a good call. No names this time, just numbers.
3+ years
2 players
2 years
7 players
1/0 years
9 players
It is definitely more patient than the Edmonton system, but it is not quite the Kings system. That is a group 18 players, half of which spent a year, half of which spent 2 or more in the minors under the Stars.
One final team just for posterity: The Detroit Red Wings
3+ years
6 players
2 years
5 players
1/0 years
3 players
(Note that Johan Franzen is among these, and was drafted in 2004 at the age of 24.)
As noted before, the Red Wings are notorious for their patient, sometimes overly patient development. It shows when you look at the simple fact that only three legitimate NHL developed players have spent a year or less in the AHL since 2004. The other 11 had to pay their dues and learn the system in the minors. It is an organizational mentality and style.
We are approaching the draft quickly. But drafting is only half the story. Heck, drafting is only a third, maybe a fourth of the story. You have to spend quite a bit of time scouting the player, then drafting them. There is no question that. But after that you have to groom them, groom your roster, and help them understand a role within your club. Too often are players thrust into the NHL with little role or direction, ala Edmonton. There needs to be a strict structure in place from AHL to NHL. A structure where players can feel safe in learning the ins and outs of the organization’s style of play without having to endure the NHL pressures. When you think about all the moving parts and decisions that have to be made when it comes to proper development it can make your head spin. What if the NHL roster is weak? What do you do? You have these kids to fill it out but should you really put em in? Or do you go the way of Buffalo this past year and dress spare part guys like Andre Benoit, Brian Gionta, Chris Stewart, etc. etc. Essentially, do you tank the year in order to give your coveted players more time? Maybe you go the route of Carolina and give a ton of journeymen AHL players a shot. How does that fill the seats though? Especially if it is in a rabid market like Edmonton or in a fickle market like Carolina. You have to have the right structure in place from top to bottom, you have to have the AHL squad and coach playing a style almost EXACTLY like that of your NHL squad. Not to mention you have to draft players to fit that style and fit your need on the depth chart. You have probably said it once, and it is worth saying it again: I do not envy the job of an NHL general manager. The Los Angeles Kings had to eat their bad years with stop gap players as well. Remember when the roster had studs like Randy Jones, Tom Preissing, Denis Gauthier, Kyle Calder, Scott Thornton, Kevin Dallman, John Zeiler and Derek Armstrong playing 60-plus games a year? Eat the bad years and preserve the kids.
There are various ways to go about it, each with their own success and failure stories. The Los Angeles Kings take the approach of patience. Patience has worked for them. So when it comes time to ask yourself “Where is Jordan Weal??… or “Where is Michael Mersch??… know that the Kings have a system in place that works on paying your dues and learning the system in the AHL first. We will probably see plenty of names for the Kings at the 2015 draft that we will not see for three or four years. Everyone has their way of doing things, and patience has been the name of the game for Dean Lombardi and his staff.