The Pittsburgh Penguins have been very fortunate to have four players like Mario Lemieux, Jaromir Jagr, Sidney Crosby, and Evgeni Malkin grace their roster for extended periods of time. All four players are in the top 20 all-time in points per game. Mario Lemieux and Sidney Crosby are currently in the top five all-time. Mario Lemieux held the record for the best points per game average in a career when he retired the first time around in 1997 with an amazing 2.01 points per game. Presently Sidney Crosby (1.36) and Evgeni Malkin (1.20) own the best point per game marks among active players with Alex Ovechkin (1.18) and Jaromir Jagr (1.16) the only other active players in the top 50.
As we enter the final quarter in this amazing run of talent there are pertinent questions that have yet to be answered. How long can Sid and Geno continue to be top level players? Is Pittsburgh's window going to be closed in the near future? How much team success can Pittsburgh find with both of those players entering their 30's?
To try and predict future results we can take a look at players from years past and what success they had as they moved into their thirties.
I took a look at some of the best players of all-time in points per game and threw in Jaromir Jagr for good measure given the Penguins theme of this article. I wanted to see how these great players aged and use it as a base to try and see how Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin would progress in the years to come. I feel as though it is fair to use the players who hold the best marks in hockey history given that Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin are the top two players of their generation in points per game.
Let's take a look at how these great players aged. Here are their raw point per game totals:
Wayne Gretzky and Mario Lemieux are on their own planet. They are clearly above everybody else in the history of the game. Everybody else seems to be bunched together until the age of 29 where each player takes their own unique turn. Some players see a dip and then reclaim some of their past brilliance. Some players drop off the chart due to early retirement, and some see a gradual decline.
There is nothing shocking about that chart. Players are going to see their raw totals decline as they age. When they are held against their own elite standards the decline can look really bad. That is why it is important to measure them against their peers and I have put together the data to do just that.
The following chart shows each players points per game at each specific age as well as where they ranked in the NHL that season in points per game.
To make it easier to look at the chart is color coded. Bright green is #1 ranked, darker green is top five, light blue is 6-10, purple is 11-15, yellow is 16-20, and if the player was below 20th it is red. Black indicates injury, retirement, not yet in the league, lockout, Europe etc...
The chart only goes to age 37 because that is when Sidney Crosby's huge contract extension expires.
Once again we see that the twenties are where all the best numbers are. The nice green hues you see at the top of the chart start to dissipate towards the bottom. Three of the seven players (Lemieux, Orr, Bossy) saw their careers derailed by injury with only Lemieux coming back and regaining his fine form.
*Other than his rookie year Lemieux finished either first or second in points per game every season he played, incredible*
The good news for Crosby and Malkin is that it appears they have at least 4-5 more years of being legitimate top level players. As you can see once players hit 33/34 years old it becomes increasingly difficult to stay among the top players in the game in point per game production.
However, not being among the best in the game is a far cry from the assertion that a player isn't productive. Even with the amount of red on the chart increasing with age you can see a lot of the point per game rates are still pretty darn good.
This is a polite reminder that ~60 points is top line level production these days. If a player can have a points per game average of around 0.73 that should still be considered very good. Offense has been in decline for about a decade now and should alter perception on what is top level production and what isn't
Here is how Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin have been tracking
Sidney Crosby is tracking like Wayne Gretzky and Mario Lemieux. He is loaded up with green on his chart, very encouraging. Evgeni Malkin is tracking like Mike Bossy and that is OK as long as he doesn't find himself with career ending injury issues like Bossy did.
It is true that the apex of Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin's brilliance is closer to the end than it is the beginning. When looking at history it will take an all-time great career arch by Crosby and/or Malkin to continue to be top level players as they enter their mid thirties. At the same time if they can avoid career ending injuries they stand to be very productive players until their current contracts expire. If Pittsburgh can continue to make smart choices with their cap space the team should be able to contend well into the future.
The window is far from closing.
Thanks for reading!
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