Todd Cordell
I didn't want to go with a rookie but Shayne Gostisbehere forced my hand here.
Two years ago Gostisbehere recorded 34 points in 42 games (.81 points per game) while logging big minutes for Union College.
A year ago Gostisbehere's season was lost as he suffered a torn ACL and played just seven games (five AHL, two NHL) as a result.
This season Ghost has put up point totals that rival his college numbers (39 points in 50 games -- .78 per) while playing a ton of minutes for a Flyers team that is in the thick of a playoff race largely because of his play.
I always liked Gostisbehere as a prospect but I don't know that I expected this kind of production on a per game basis in the prime of his career; let alone as a 22-year-old rookie in the NHL.
Jason Lewis Toss up between Kuznetsov and Marchand. I think Kuznetsov was expected to be a really high level player, but the flashes last year were kind of few and far between. He was either really good or frustratingly invisible. He is putting it together for real this year.
I think it really has to be Marchand though if I have to pick one.
34 goals is a huge jump for him, given he had 24 last year, and 28 was his career high five years ago. The crazy thing is is that only six of them have come on the powerplay, and his shooting percentage on the year (16.2) is not that much higher than his career average (15.3). He is just being way more assertive, confident, and dominant on the puck.
James Tanner Marchand's 34 goals and 53% CF are impressive. He's crushed his career high by 10, and with 11 games to go has a decent shot at 40.
Just as impressive is Jeff Skinner who has 25 goals, but whose 18 even-strength goals are one more than Marchands. People forget too that Skinner is just 23. I guess it's not really a "breakout" considering he might not even match his two 30 goal seasons already, but no one really talks about him and he's having a good bounce-back season.
It is also probably worth mentioning that only 7 players have more goals than Jarimor Jagr does at even-strength (18). That seems crazy to me.
Peter Tessier If I had to make a quick shortlist it would be Gostisbehere, Panarin and Barkov. However let's throw in a dark horse, Dylan Larkin.
While Larkin is hardly a 'come out of nowhere' player like Ghost. Although some would say 3rd round picks hardly come out of nowhere but as a rookie he does for sure. And because he's not a first pick like Larkin he gets the edge.
As for Barkov and Panarin they both have had remarkable seasons thus far. Goals carry a lot of weight and many would give Panarin the edge but he also has more experience than Barkov. But going forward I'm choosing Barkov of Panarin if I have to choose one for my team.
Between Barkov and Ghost I'm taking Ghost. Simply because he has come in and done things no other rookie defenseman in some time has done. He makes the game exciting and he makes his team and players around him better. He's the breakout player and probable Calder winner.