I’m not here to disrespect the Tampa Bay Lightning. I think a lot of people, myself included, underestimated how good they are.
But the pendulum of emotion and over/underestimating now seems to have swung the other way. A lot of people are saying, including a lot of Hawk fans, that Chicago can’t win this series.
I will just offer the following as my take on where the team and coaching staff might be today.
The Hawks can win this series.
Will they? Remains to be seen and certainly, it won’t be easy. But here’s how:
WE’VE BEEN HERE BEFORE, HAVEN’T WE?
The uphill slog against Anaheim (after being down 2-1) wasn’t easy either. Nor was the Nashville series. Or beating Detroit in 7 games in 2013, or the Finals that year against Boston (where the Hawks found themselves down 2-1). It wasn’t easy coming back from being down 3-1 in the Western Conference Finals last year to tie that series and push Game 7 to OT.
I think the thing that’s scaring Hawk fans this morning is unlike Anaheim (with some slow forwards and a penchant for emotional meltdowns at bad times), you don’t see a huge chink in Tampa’s armor.
How do we beat these guys?
Well, Joel Quenneville, I’m sure is thinking hard about that and he might have some answers. Or not.
Jonathan Toews, you can be certain, is obsessed with it.
Point being, these guys have a certain track record of getting back into series, if not winning them. The Hawks aren’t panicking, and they’re the only ones who matter.
THE GAMES HAVE BEEN CLOSE
Very close. Kind of surprising that none of the three games have gone to OT.
If you look at the possession charts, Corsi, hell, if you just watch the games, you can see that.
To my eye, a couple of things have happened, especially in games 2 and 3 that have tilted both contests to Tampa. The Hawks are mounting a ton of offensive zone pressure on Tampa, and putting a lot of pucks on Ben Bishop.
The problem is they aren’t getting the rebounds and scoring chances in close that Tampa is, with traffic in front of the net. Some of that’s on Corey Crawford, some of that is because the Hawks don’t have the required manpower in front of both nets.
Nothing new, we’ve seen this before when the Hawks struggle.
Tampa’s second and third goals last night tell an important story. On the second goal, 185 pound Ondrej Palat muscled a Hawk defender out of the crease and banged home a loose puck. Neither should have happened. Can’t happen if you want to win a close game in the Stanley Cup Finals. Especially not 13 seconds after you score a goal to take the lead.
On the third goal, everyone wants to blame Kyle Cumiskey, but at least he was in position to make a play. Patrick Sharp and Brad Richards were trailing well behind the scorer, Tampa center Cedric Paquette. Sharp took the draw in the offensive zone, but Richards was the "center." Regardless, one or the other had defensive responsibility for Paquette.
The style of play the Hawks are employing is leaving them susceptible to quick strikes. I don’t think the Hawks can or should abandon their strategy. But two things need to happen.
One, they need to bury more chances or get more rebounds. Two, Crawford has to be one soft goal better per game. He is being paid $6.5 million this season. If it’s not to do that, I don’t know what it’s for.
WHAT CAN Q DO?
First, the Bryan Bickell experiment failed. Kris Versteeg has to go back in.
Second, he has the Toews line going. Anton Stralman took a smart penalty and prevented Marian Hossa from burying an open net, Hossa made the right play, so did Stralman. The Hawks failed to convert on the ensuing power play. But the answer there is just more of the same. Sooner or later, Hossa buries that (or Brandon Saad or Toews) 5 on 5.
Another thing that happened last night, Hossa somewhat cancelled out Hedman at times in the Tampa zone. He made Hedman work and was able to beat him physically. Not sure who stops Hedman in the Hawks’ end (insert ironic chuckle here), but the point is, Q has something good going with 20-19-81.
The issue is Patrick Kane.
The Hawks are trying the stretch pass over and over but Tampa is back on their blueline way too quickly and in way too many numbers. So, as almost always going back to 2009, the Hawks need to start going station to station and dumping and chasing. And maintain pressure through the cycle.
Kane has minimal room to operate and that is in part because no one on his line is creating space for him. If he can’t, odds increase that Tampa will continue to be one goal better per game. If he can, then there’s a whole new dimension to the series and a big matchup problem for Tampa.
Bickell was inserted to be the road grader/havoc creator needed to free Kane up in the offensive zone. Didn’t happen, Bickell did his best impression of the Acme Brand Anvil last night before being stapled to the bench in the third.
This is just me, but I would take a look at getting Andrew Shaw on a line with Kane. With Bickell simply unable to keep up in this series, Shaw is the one Hawk forward who can do that for Kane—and he has proven chemistry with 88 going back to last year’s playoffs.
Sure, that somewhat disrupts Marcus Kruger’s line, but that’s a nice spot for Kris Versteeg, who can be “Shaw Lite… on that line without losing much.
HOW BAD IS JOHNNY ODUYA?
No one’s saying. His participation in the practice skates will give some indication, but nothing is certain until he is publicly ruled out or he shows up tomorrow night on the ice. Tampa is hurting too. It's that time of year.
I’ll have a Preview tomorrow.
JJ
Check out Hockey Streams. See NHL, AHL and CHL streamed in HD right to your computer, tablet or gaming device for a small donation: http://www.hockeystreams.com/ref/51981