The Montreal Canadiens are this year’s Fancy Stats whipping boys. The fancies do not like them at all but they can overcome whatever deficiencies they have because they employ a world class goaltender. In many respects they are the Colorado Avalanche of the East, but a little better. For what it’s worth though, I wouldn’t be afraid to build a team with Price as my Goalie and Subban as my Star Defenseman. It’s one heck of a foundation.
The Habs’ biggest weakness looking at their roster from a traditionalist perspective is that they don’t have enough size down the middle (an issue the Oilers know all about). David Desharnais plays much bigger than his physical size but that’s not overly difficult when your listed size matches the average 9th grader. When you look at their players you see a lot of feisty guys whose physique doesn’t match up with what most NHL teams are looking for.
Despite it all they are winning. They are currently 2nd in the East but with 3 games in hand on the Lightning. They might finish atop the entire Eastern Conference and not be taken seriously by the advanced stats community. What’s their deal?
The problem is that the Habs are not good at suppressing shot attempts. They are very much a high event team that relies on their goaltending to be better than that on the other teams. It’s a formula that’s working too.
5v5 the Habs are generating a 13th best 55.6 shot attempts per 60 minutes. However, they are also allowing a 25th ranked 57 attempts against them. In just basic shots for per game the Canadiens are 25th in the NHL with 28.3 and 22nd in shots against with 30.3 per game. The simple facts are that they just barely shoot more per game than Edmonton and they allow more per game than Edmonton.
The reason they don’t get a lot of love from the stats community is because they are playing a dangerous game of percentages. If Price goes down to injury or has a bad week when the playoffs start they could be hooped. You combine that with the traditionalists who don’t like the size of the team and you are looking at a team that might finish atop the Eastern Conference and not be considered a favourite to make it to the Eastern Conference Finals.
Again though, any day of the week I would take their problems over Edmonton’s. Oiler fans can only dream of having an elite defenseman and goalie right now. Size can be addressed, high end talent in key positions buys a lot of leeway.
LINEUP
I wasn’t really expecting Ryan Hamilton to get into game action in the last game as he did and he paid immediate dividends for his old AHL coach. A nice tip-in for his first ever NHL goal off an absolute blast by Nail Yakupov should, I assume, punch his ticket to re-appear in this game tonight. The whole team played well in my ever humble opinion. If it were my call (and it never will be) the lineup would stay exactly the same. Scrivens apparently went to test his hamstring this morning but only lasted a few shots before leaving the ice. Pouliot is also not ready to return.
Purcell RNH Eberle Hamilton Roy Yakupov Hendricks Gordon Klinkhammer Gazdic Lander Pakarinen
Ference Petry Klefbom Schultz Marincin Fayne
Fasth
OILERS KEYS TO THE GAME
1) Take Tokarski. The Montreal Canadiens have one of the best goaltenders in the entire world in Carey Price. Boasting a .933 save percentage and being primarily responsible for the success of his team, he will be a (the?) front runner for the Vezina trophy this season. But he isn’t playing. Instead, the Oilers will be facing Tokarski who hasn’t been terrible but is definitely a downgrade from Price. With Tokarski in net the Habs have allowed a little more than half a goal per game against them than with their starter. That’s a trend the Oilers need to take advantage of. It’s just natural for Montreal to look past the Oilers a bit and they need to jump all over that.
2) Yak City. The Oilers chose Nail Yakupov 1st Overall in 2012 as the consensus #1 pick on all the Draft rankings. The only Forward who probably could have pushed him was going to be Galchenyuk but an injury wiped out almost his entire season. The Draft played out as it did and now most outside Edmonton (and a few within Edmonton) are willing to write Yak off as a bust already. Under Nelson and paired with Roy he has looked significantly more dangerous on a consistent basis and the points are just now starting to come. I’m not willing to count his career as over just yet. Under this new coach he may just flourish yet.
3) Anton Too. Lander has absolutely revived his career this season and it goes to show that sometimes these guys just need time. He was on the verge of moving from prospect to suspect because he just didn’t have any offense, but an apprenticeship in the AHL really brought that part of his game to the point where he now has legitimate weapons in the offensive zone. That PP goal from the slot was beautiful and unlike in the last several times the Oilers tried to force Lander into an NHL job, the play doesn’t die on his stick anymore. I watch him now and think “There’s a player here!…
Puck drops at 5:38PM Mountain Time on Sportsnet West. Tank On!
Follow me on Twitter @Archaeologuy