Follow @james_tanner123 Normally, I write a joke prediction column using my friend and local homeless person Miss Cleo of the Physic Alliance to help me satirize the notion of making predictions. I do this because people are prediction crazy and yet most of them scoff at probability-based projections, not to mention how hilarious it is to go back and say you 'called it' when you are either making a logical assumption or outright guessing, and it's a blogger tradition and everyone does it, so spoofing is kind of funny. To me at least.
But, just because something is worthy of some mockery doesn't make it useless - prediction columns are actually pretty fun and if you think about it, can teach us about that things don't have to be just black/white, good/bad. i.e you can like and hate them simultaneously - like Sauron.
Anyways, today I won't be employing the genius of Miss Cleo, or making fun of anything. I simply noticed that the NHL is starting to bubble up a little bit in anticipation of the tread deadline - things are happening, people are talking, rumours are out there, GMs are being interviewed (uselessly) etc.
So instead of making random guesses, here are ten things that, based off what I have observed/heard in the last little while , that I believe will happen. I will revisit this in six weeks and see how things worked out.
1. Steve Stamkos will re-sing with Tampa Bay.
Let's be realistic: Tampa has one of, if not the best rosters in the NHL. I guarantee that they will re-sign Stamkos.
The reason is obvious: Because he's the greatest player of all-time in Tampa history, he might actually be worth the contract he is going to sign with them. To a team like the Leafs, he would be a horrible decision reminiscent of the way the Leafs have always been run (looking for shortcuts, lacking patience).
From a PR perspective, from a 'hey we have a chance to be the best team in the NHL for a few years', from a team building perspective, a personal, maybe even moral perspective (they owe to their fans), the Lightning have no choice but to sign him.
I believe it will happen any day now.
2. The Leafs will Trade James Van Riemsdyk
Why? Because they just made a point, as an organization, to say that they won't. Seems kind of weird to publicly say that if you don't want to make it clear to people calling you that you think their offers are a joke.
Plus, it just makes sense. The value for him will never be higher because of a fortuitous combination of his cheap contract ($4.25 for 3 more years), half the teams being in salary cap trouble and having a reasonable chance at competing, plus the Leafs rebuilding and in need of assets that are younger.
If the Leafs don't see JVR as a potential Alec Hemsky on the Oilers situation waiting to happen, then they are idiots and don't deserve their jobs. They must trade him while his value will be ridiculous and they will.
My equation: Great Contract + Rebuilding + Logic + Assumed Intelligence + Telling People You Won't = You Totally Will.
3. Johnathan Drouin Gets Traded For a Defenseman Within a Week
The almost ridiculous emergence of talented young forwards makes Douin available. They already have Stamkos + the Kucherov, Johnson, Palat combo, which makes the fact that they even have Drouin ridiculous. But they also have Paquette, Marchessault and - most crazy of all - Vladislav Namestnikov.
So when you have one of the best rosters in hockey and are going to fix the Stamkos problem, it makes no sense to drag this out.
If, potentially, you could add Shattenkirk to a team that already has Stralman and Hedman, it's almost too good to be true.
I don't think they should - I think having three #1 centres makes you unstoppable, but it's going to happen.
Here's my predictions: RNH to the Islanders for Travis Hamonic and a pick. or RNH to the Flyers for Travis Sandheim and B. Schenn.
5. The Leafs will re-sign Nazem Kadri
I believe that the people running the Leafs are the kinds of people who don't need to see results showing up in the goals and assists department to know what kind of player they have. Playing on a line with third-liners and going head-to-head with the best centres in hockey while playing for a bad team, Kadri has put up 5v5 scoring numbers in the 1/4 season since his shooting-percentage rebounded to his career average of 10% at a pace that would put him just outside the top-ten of regular-strength scorers.
He's done this while the Leafs do insane things to try and pump value into players like Bozak (with a straight face Lamoriello said this week that the price for him would be astronomical and that the Leafs want to build around him, and people actually took him seriously) and Polak and Hunwick.
He should get signed to a seven year deal at $6 million annually, and it will look like a huge bargain after a couple years go by.
I think if people outside of Edmonton had any idea how dynamic Yakupov's game is or how close to a superstar Oscar Klefbom was to becoming, they'd actually give them credit for staying respectable while they and McDavid were out of the lineup.
A trade for a defenseman + the return of their three amazing first-round picks will coincide with them tearing the Western Conference apart. I for one can't wait to see a line of Hall-McDavid-Yakupov destroy the NHL.
7.Carolina Will Make the Playoffs
The stats back this up and anyone who bothered to look could have predicted their recent run. They are going to force someone like Montreal, the Rangers or Bruins to an early vacation.
8. The Coyotes Will Not Make the Playoffs
They aren't this year's version of the Flames, Leafs or Avalanche: They are way worse than those teams where when they made it. The peripherals are just too brutal to make it. As it stands, their record is a miracle, but it can't keep up. Wish it would. It won't.
Speaking of the Coyotes, they are at home to the Devils today.