My Canes and Coffee Kickstarter is suddenly in its final week. As I write this, it is funded at 75% which is on track for success but still requires help to get to its target. I keep hoping for a run of smallish $5-10 contributions to reach the target early, make it possible to start working on the site in earnest before June 30 and enable me to sleep decently the last few days of June.
You can contribute or check status on the Kickstarter here. ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
In my two blogs on Monday, I identified and detailed circumstances for twelve top 4 (or top 4ish) defensemen who might be available via trade. I also said that I think it might be easier to fill top 4 blue line slots this summer via this reasonably rich trade market instead of the annually overpriced free agent market that opens on July 1.
The incredible challenge sitting in front of Ron Francis is trying to revamp his team a bit this summer, fill some key slots in the top half of the roster and do all of this without taking on a bunch of salary. When the Canes traded away players at the trade deadline last season, they created roster openings but also theoretically freed up money for replacements. The problem is that the set of players that the team traded were very modestly priced compared to what it would cost to replace them with a similar quality player via the free agent market. Andrej Sekera was making only $1.75M last season (cap hit $2.75M). Jiri Tlusty was making only $2.95M and Tim Gleason $1.2M. When you add in Jay Harrison who was traded a bit earlier and the $1.1M of his salary that the Canes traded away (they at $0.4M of his deal), the Canes opened up three defense slots (one being a top 4) and one top six forward slot but freed up only $7M in the process. You could spend most of that just trying to replace Sekera based on last year’s free agent prices for defensemen that saw Orpik and Niskanen price out at $5.5M for long-term deals. Francis might get a green light to spend a bit higher this summer knowing that a significant amount of contracts come off the books next summer, but it is not like he will be given an open check book to spend to the salary cap. Both Cam Ward and Eric Staal will represent salary decreases whether they re-sign for less or are gone altogether next summer. But even still, Ron Francis is faced with the tough task of adding at least one if not two top 4 defenseman with very little budget to do so. It also seems like he needs to add at least one top 6 forward and maybe more if trading a forward or two is part of the process to cut costs and/or add a defenseman.
How might this even be possible?
I think there are two key elements to revamping the roster this summer:
1) Canes GM Ron Francis will need to unload one big contract as part of the process. I just do not see how else he can add on defense without breaking the bank. The four options are Eric Staal, Cam Ward, Jeff Skinner and Alexander Semin. Eric Staal seems likely to eventually re-sign and stay longer term (but that is definitely not a sure thing). In the last year of his big contract, just maybe Ward’s contract is finally a possibility to be traded away. After his rough 2014-15 campaign, Alexander Semin’s value is low right now but perhaps he is movable in a deal that takes another bad contract back as an offset or if the Canes retain part of his salary. Finally, there is Jeff Skinner who might be the greatest combination of marketable but expendable for the right return. If none of these contracts come off the books, I just do not see Francis getting enough budget from the ownership group to do much except fill a couple holes on the cheap and push through to next summer when he finally gains quite a bit of financial flexibility and with it the controls to the team.
2) An opportunistic “buy low… approach to filling a couple roster spots without paying a ton in terms of trade goods or salary. Per my previous blogs, I think there are some decent “buy low… options to add a top 4-capable defenseman. Francis’ ability to pick through the bargain and castoff bin and determine which player(s) can rebound in a new environment could be key to the Canes 2015-16. I also think the bargain bin will need to be the shopping place of choice to try to add a little bit of offense (if my plan below happens) to replace some that leaves.
So if I was Ron Francis, what would I do?
My focus at this early stage of the process over the draft weekend would focus on exploring creative options to build out the blue line and figuring out if/how it is possible to free up some budget at the same time. I would look to make three key additions that would fill the gaps and be in the neighborhood of salary neutral.
1) I would sit down with my scouting staff and coaches and rank the defenseman trade options that I listed plus a few others and quickly screen out players that are either not a good fit or are just simply not a good player at this stage of their career. I would then work the phones considering ranking but also cost in trade assets and salary. The aim is to stay near the top of the ranking list but also be opportunistic in terms of cost.
The goal is to land one veteran top 4 defenseman ideally with 2-3 years on his contract who can fill a hole and help build a bridge to the youth – Fleury, McKeown, Hanifin or Provorov?, etc. If Francis can instead get a longer-term solution, that is even better but also likely to cost more. My preference is to add a veteran right shot skating/offensive defenseman to pair with Ron Hainsey. There are multiple decent options. The goal for this add is to give up very little in terms of trade value and try to stay reasonable on out of pocket salary cost.
A few players I like most with estimated cost:
--James Wisniewski. He is definitely “buy low… right now after being discarded by Columbus and then finding is way to the press box for the playoffs in Anaheim. His deal is reasonable (average $4M/year real salary for two years), and I cannot imagine that either he nor Anaheim want to reunite in September after the playoffs. => 3rd round pick or mid-tier prospect for Wisniewski with Canes taking all of salary.
--Jared Spurgeon. At 25 years old and RFA next summer, he could prove to be a longer term solution for the 2nd pairing. The biggest rap on him is his size and whether it prevents him from being a true top 4 in the NHL. With the NHL’s emphasis on skill and skating, I take that and look past his size, especially for a #3/#4 slot. He is not at all a castoff/salary dump situation, so the Canes would have to pay full price for him. What exactly Minnesota thinks that is determines if you make a move or pass and work farther down the list of options. => Skinner is too much. A random collection of prospects is too little. So this could be a challenging deal to get done. Maybe it is something like a higher future (2nd round pick or McKeown) plus a bottom half of roster NHLer (Riley Nash) plus another lesser future (3rd or 4th round pick).
--Kevin Bieksa. He is one of the couple options that offer a very budget budget friendly short-term stopgap. His cap hit of $4.6M would be problematic for many cap-strapped teams, but for the Canes focusing on real $, his $2.5M salary is as friendly as it gets. He is signed for only one year and could be gone by next summer, but it stretches Francis closer to his young defenseman and gets him to next summer when he should have more budget available. => With Vancouver looking to unload salary, I think the cost should be modest – an inexpensive roster player like Nash or Gerbe plus a modest future like a 3rd round pick is about all I would bid for a player who is likely a 1-year fix. If that is not enough, I move on down the list.
--Tom Gilbert. See Kevin Bieksa. He is not the flashiest of options, but one year at only $2.8M buys Francis at least the first section of the bridge that he needs. His offense-leaning play but with top 4 experience fits the skill set that I want to plug in next to Hainsey. => Similar to Bieksa, modest futures and/or a bottom half of the roster player would need to work otherwise I pass.
--Dennis Wideman. He falls exactly into the same category as Wisniewski, Spurgeon and Gilbert as a right shot, offensive defenseman whose skill set could be complementary to Hainsey. There are two key differences. First, he is coming off a decent season in Calgary, so it is not like Calgary must move him. And he is due $5.25M and $6M over the next two seasons, so unless Calgary eats a portion of his salary, he is significantly more expensive than a couple of the other options. This matters for the Canes. =>The key here is if/how much of this contract Calgary will retain. If Calgary will not retain any of it, Francis might pass altogether. Wideman’s current deal is inflated about to the level where Francis could just go play in the free agent market for the same type of deal, level of player and price. If Calgary will eat $1-1.5M of this deal, Wideman becomes more appealing and probably garners a return of modest futures with a 2nd round pick being the high end and modest prospects and lower pick(s) being the lower end.
So the common theme with this first move is trying to opportunistically add a right shot, offensively capable/leaning defenseman who can pair well with Ron Hainsey, trade very little assets to do so and stay at market value or ideally a bit less in terms of salary. This player combined with Ron Hainsey become the 1-3 year bridge to help from young players in the system to hopefully grow into a 2nd pairing if not higher.
2) Go find a partner for Justin Faulk. This is obviously a challenging goal. There are limited options available to do this via free agency, and they could all be budget breakers that require the Canes to then unload a big contract to make the budget work. Instead, it seems to make more sense to unload a big contract as part of this move. I have long been on record as saying that the Canes could improve by trading Jeff Skinner for a similar age, similar level defenseman, and I think that is the most likely way to add a partner for Faulk. Because of the limited options, Francis might have to compromise on age, salary taken on, etc. to get it done.
--Dion Phaneuf. People can debate whether he is a true 1st pairing defenseman, but for the Canes right now, given other options he is. I also think that he is a bit underrated right now thanks to the Toronto media. The risk on him is his contract at 6 years for $7M/year but just maybe Toronto retains a part of that to help get a deal done. => The Canes would rather build a package around Semin but when they will not include the #5 pick as part of it, I think the talk turns to Skinner. This is a complicated deal that requires other parts. The Canes would try push Toronto to eat a little bit of Phaneuf’s salary. The Leafs say they need more return to do that. But at the end of the day, the core of the deal fits both teams’ needs reasonably well. The Canes get a partner for Faulk and a long-term add for the top of their blue line. Toronto rids itself of one of the focal points of one of the uglier parts of its 2014-15 and part of the cleaning process for a fresh start under Babcock. They also add a player who is imperfect because of defensive issues but only 23 years old and a dynamic offensive player who could feasibly be part of a fast rebuild.
--Andy Greene. Like Phaneuf, Greene could slot next to Faulk and become a long-term part of the Canes top 4. It is not clear to me whether New Jersey has committed to a full rebuild that could make Greene available or whether they will try to build around a few players like him. But if he becomes available, I am interested. The downside with Greene is that the five years remaining on his deal take him to 37 years old (Phaneuf’s deal takes him to 36), so there is risk that he might not be a $5M defender for the entirety of his contract. => The scenario that sees Greene become available is the one where New Jersey goes a bit Buffalo and trades all good assets for futures. In that scenario, it will take a pretty good package of picks and prospects to win a bidding war for Greene. A package could include a 2nd round pick for this year, someone like Roland McKeown and maybe even one of the 1st round picks for 2016. That is a big price to pay, and exactly why Francis has been drafting more defensemen to build from within going forward.
--Past these two veteran options to find a longer-term partner for Faulk, I think the other option is to trade Skinner directly for a similar age, similar quality top 4 defenseman from a team that is deep defensively but needs more offense. At the trade deadline, I threw out a deal that had Eric Gudbranson from Florida and Jeff Skinner as the starting point. With Weber, Josi and Jones in Nashville, might they be willing to trade Ellis or Ekholm plus something else (futures or a lesser roster forward to replace Skinner or ?) to land a high-end scoring forward? Possibly. I have this on my list of things to write about at some point if a deal does not happen before I get to it.
I think the ideal deal is a trade that nets a young, top 4 capable (not projected but with some real experience) defenseman who is under contract for cheap still ($2-4M) and possibly a lesser roster forward or prospect. This fills a significant slot on the blue line and at the same time frees up a small amount of money to try to backfill Skinner’s spot with some offense (think Derek Roy or another offensively leaning forward who will not cost a fortune).
3) Explore unique options for Alexander Semin. I am actually more positive on Semin than most for 2015-16. He is still extremely talented, and he is only 31 years old. I think it is just a matter of resetting from the 2014-15 disaster and quickly getting on a new track. This said, when you are a budget-constrained team, and you have a 3-year, $7M commitment to a player who scored 19 points in 57 games and spent games as a healthy scratch, he is real risky at that price. I would NOT consider a buyout. Per my blog on this awhile back, it just does not make sense for the Canes financially. And I would NOT give up the #5 pick to rid myself of his contract. It is too expensive future-wise and immediately eliminates a player who could be real good on a cheap entry level contract for at least a few years before getting paid. But I would definitely explore all other trade avenues for the possibility of unloading $7M/year (or most of it at least) tied to a risky future.
I see two options. One would be forced to pan out pretty soon if it is going to happen, and the other is more likely to arise in late July/early August. First is the possibility of swapping Alexander Semin plus some modest futures as a sweetener to Los Angeles for Mike Richards. Per my blog yesterday (sorry for the reuse but it fits here too) first is a trade for Mike Richards that the Canes sweeten with something else. If LA cannot trade Richards, I think they buy him out. At the point where they go to buy him out, they could just as easily buy out Semin. The real $ amounts are very similar and the total cap hit (bigger concern for LA) is less for Semin (though a bit more front loaded). I could see a deal where the Canes take Richards who is $4.5M for 5 years and the Kings get some modest future in return for buying out Semin instead. Note that if the Canes get Strome at #5, it could complicate things as the Canes center position suddenly becomes crowded even with EStaal at wing. I also think the Coyotes and their challenge to reach the cap floor could present an opening. It could be one of those strange deals where the Canes pay Arizona to take Semin in a deal that sees the Canes send Semin and a higher (2nd or 3rd round) draft pick to Arizona and get back only a low draft pick. If Francis can get rid of Semin in a deal without eating salary and without giving up a ton (i.e. the #5 pick), I think he does.
The Los Angeles deal is on the clock because the Kings would need to do the trade in time to place Semin on waivers and buy him out before that window closes next week. The Arizona deal is likely the opposite. The Coyotes would want to get deeper into the July free agent signing period to see where they end up in terms of players and salary and gain more clarity on if/how much salary they need to add to get to the floor.
When you net it out for the first two deals, the Canes would probably be something like breakeven to minus $2M in salary from adding both top 4 defensemen and trading away Jeff Skinner. When you net that against the $7M in salary that the Canes traded away in 2015-16, the team would be roughly +$5M relative to the start of 2014-15. At this point, the Canes can probably afford one more forward to replace Skinner and still save a bit of money. Any trade of Semin should be net positive in terms of reducing salary and if it comes in the form of the trade for Richards also adds a hopeful top 6 forward.
What say you Canes fans? Do you agree with my early focus on at least exploring options to build out the blue line first? Do you think either of the Alexander Semin trade scenarios are possible? Am I nuts to trade away a talented offensive player in Jeff Skinner for a defenseman when the Canes struggled to score enough last season? What else?
Twitter=@CarolinaMatt63
Go Canes!