Tuesday was RFA day for the Rangers, where the big four elected. Thursday, the price tag for one of the four might have come a bit more into focus due to a somewhat comparable signing in NJ, as the Devils inked Kyle Palmieri to a five-year deal worth $4.65 mil annually. The arbitration hearings will be held July 20-Aug. 4 in Toronto with awards noted at late as August 6. But the last Ranger to actually go through arbitration was Nikolay Zherdev in 2009, when the Rangers walked away from his $3.9 million judgement, making him an unrestricted free agent.
Larry Brooks highlighted some similarities and ket differences between the duo:
New Jersey native Palmieri, 25 and the 26th overall selection of the 2009 Entry Draft vs. Massachusetts-born Kreider, 25 (two months younger) and the 19th overall pick that same year.Palmieri, acquired last summer from Anaheim for a second- and a third-round pick, had a breakout year for the Devils with 30 goals (more than double his previous best) and 27 assists. He has recorded 86 points (44-42) the last two years and has a career total of 146 points (73-73) in 280 games, 0.52 per.
Kreider, who hasn’t yet had a breakout season, finished in a rush to get five goals in his last eight games to match his previous season’s career high of 21 goals. He has recorded 89 points the last two years (42-47) and has a career total of 129 points (61-68) in 248 games, 0.52 per.
Their performances diverge in the playoffs, though, with Kreider — who made such a memorable debut in the 2012 tournament fresh off the Boston College campus — posting 20 goals and 13 assists in 65 matches as opposed to Palmieri’s seven goals and five assists in 33 postseason games.
The comparables basically show that Palmieri had his breakout year a year ago to move his scoring up to equal Kreider. Much more was expected from CK20 last year but he need a late kick to have a decent year. Kreider does step it up in the postseason but he has twice as many games as Palmieri, so if double Palmieri's numbers and factor in a rise due to his performance last year, the variance isn't as marked as it first looks.
Brooks added and put in well: Palmieri seems more the consistent, finished product while Kreider remains a work in progress with both a higher ceiling and a lower floor. And, because of the power, speed and still unrealized potential, Kreider would almost certainly be the more highly coveted around the league, though it may not be a slam dunk.
The Rangers and Kreider have several decisions here. For NY, are they willing to sign Kreider to a similar long-term deal as Palmieri received, buying out three UFA years? For Kreider, it depends on his perceived value - higher or lower than Palmieri. Also, is he willing to sign for five years or does he prefer one or two years. One year, would mean he goes through arb again, two, he becomes a free agent at end of the deal. If the Rangers do sign him to a ST deal, regardless if via a separate signing or through arbitration, offering him two years would seem to make little sense because it almost locks Kreider into free agency at end of the deal. Now maybe he signs for two years, negotiates during the life of the deal and agrees upon a long-term contract, but that is unlikely.
When discussing Kreider's filling for arbitration Tuesday, I wrote:
Kreider, 25, despite a slow start, matched his career high of 21 goals and added 22 assists in 79 games as he completed a two-year, $4.95 million deal. That deal was signed just before arbitration. If you want a decent comp for him, Marcus Johansson was awarded 1 yr @ $3.75M contract last year in arbitration and will go through the process again this season. If Kreider gets a one-year deal, he should go from $2.475 mil to around $3.5-4 mil. For two years, up that amount slightly to closer to $4-$4.25 mil. If New York opted for a 4-5 year deal, the look for a cap hit of around $4.75-$5.25 million.
The bolded is the key and where I thought the deals might end up, depending on length of the contract. I may be light on the one year deal, slightly heavy for two years and fairly spot on for two years and in ballpark for LT deal. The Palmieri deal should help jumpstart talks because it provides a fairly string comparable to use. The puck in on both sides of the ice, let's see who gains possession and what they do with it.