For anyone not in the loop yet, I have a Kickstarter up and running to fund the initial launch of an independent Hurricanes hockey web site. I would greatly appreciate a couple bucks a small token of appreciation from regular readers here over the years.
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Tuesday and Wednesday I ran a short poll that I posted here and on Twitter to get everyone's opinion on what the Canes should do with the #5 pick overall.
The first question asked about the possibility of trading the pick. "If you were Canes GM Ron Francis, would you consider trading the #5 overall pick?"
Answers: 15% -- No. Not under any circumstances. 48% -- Yes. If I can get a decent roster player and at least a replacement late 1st round pick. 30% -- Yes. But only if I can get a huge return in terms of draft picks. 7 % -- Other. Most of the other was trading down only a few spots with a big return.
The second question asked people to rank the options who might be available at #5 for the Canes. (So it excluded McDavid and Eichel)
Hanifin ranked #1 garnering 43%, 26% and 19% respectively for ranking 1, 2 and 3 of the options.
Strome was #2 at 32%, 23% and 21% of the 1, 2 and 3 rankings.
Marner was #3 at 16%, 32% and 34% of the 1, 2 and 3 rankings.
A couple quick observations on ranking the top 3:
--Obviously there is no consensus for what to do even if the Canes had their choice of any of the 3 picking in Phoenix's #3 slot.
--Though these 3 are thought to be the 2nd tier, it is interesting that 12% of people left Hanifin out of the top 3, 24% left Strome out and 18% left Marner out.
--Though Strome received more #1 overall votes than Marner, more people actually left Strome out of the top 3 altogether than Marner.
Past the top 3 a couple players received a decent amount of top 3 rankings bumping 1 of the big 3 out:
--Ivan Provorov picked up 3%, 12% and 13% respectively of the 1, 2 and 3 rankings showing that at least with this audience maybe he should be in the mix with the top 3.
--Lawson Crouse picked up a healthy 5%, 7% and 7% respectively of 1, 2 and 3 rankings from the group seemingly from Canes fans enamored by the potential to add a power forward to the lineup.
--Finally, Mikko Rantanen picked up 0%, 1% and 5% of the votes respectively for 1st, 2nd and 3rd.
When you net it out, I really think who is available for the Canes at #5 is a complete crap shoot most likely to include 1 of Marner, Strome and Hanifin plus some other options that would not be a huge surprise. And it is also very much a matter of opinion who the Canes should take with this pick. I think the positive is that because of the depth in the draft this year the leftovers at #5 will still be incredibly good options compared to other years where the talent falloff is much higher after the couple elite players are gone.
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Jeff Petry's re-signing with Montreal for 6 years at $5.5M/year is the canary in the coal mine for what this summer will offer in terms of free agent top 4 D options. There are very few options already, and another just went off the market for a premium price. When you look at Niskanen and Orpik signing last summer for a similar $5Mish long-term deal, that pretty clearly says that anyone who is top 4 capable costs $5Mish and will get 5-6 offers for that amount. And because of the scarcity of options, there could be numerous teams in on these bidding wars. Unless Andrej Sekera really really loved his time in Raleigh, it looks ominous for the Canes being able to lure and afford a top 4 defenseman on the open market.
I think the positive is that the opposite could actually be true in terms of trading for a top 4 defenseman. There are a number of individual/team specific situations that seem to have top 4 defenseman possibly available via trade. Salary cap issues for a number of teams could free up 3-4 pretty good options, and a couple historically proven top 4 defensemen who have underperformed recently could add 3-4 more to the market. I will save the details for a blog closer the draft, but right now I think the Canes are most likely to add a defenseman via trade to fill a top 4 slot and more likely to use the free agent market to bargain shop for 1 more depth defenseman for the bottom pairing.
Twitter=@CarolinaMatt63
Go Canes!