The Pittsburgh Penguins and Anaheim Ducks came together in the late hours of the night to make a hockey trade. The last time these two teams came together for a trade it resulted in disaster for Pittsburgh when they moved Simon Despres for Ben Lovejoy. Last night's trade will probably avoid that kind of declaration, but I'm not sure how much better the Penguins actually got. Here is the trade:
Pittsburgh gives Anaheim David Perron and Adam Clendening in exchange for Carl Hagelin.
On the surface Pittsburgh will get a similar player in production with an opposite skill set. Perron has great hands (yes, he does despite offensive struggles this year) and a slower motor while Hagelin has speed to burn but not necessarily the hands to match. Perron's special teams contributions come on the power play while Hagelin's are on the penalty kill.
This will more than likely end up being a lateral move for Pittsburgh. The big variable is that Hagelin has three more years left on his contract after the 2015-16 season. His cap hit is 4.0M.
Hagelin was scheduled to have a no trade clause kick in next year but that shouldn't be an issue
one of our comments found this about the NTC pic.twitter.com/9Gngv3sZlb
— The Pensblog (@Pensblog) January 16, 2016
Pittsburgh needs to get the Carl Hagelin from a few years ago and not the current version for this trade to make sense. If Hagelin does not start to produce offense they will have just traded for the 2015-16 version of David Perron but for three more seasons.
Offensively both players have shown glimpses of top six production at even-strength in that past. David Perron's numbers kind of jump back and forth while Carl Hagelin's are in a fairly straight decline. The main catalyst for moving Perron was his lack of production, but it seems like that has been an issue for Hagelin as well.
For as bad as Perron has been this year his 16 points are still more than Hagelin's 12.
Both players are having a miserable time on the shooting percentage front. David Perron is shooting 4.2% which is way lower than his 11.7% career average. Likewise Carl Hagelin's 4.7% is also lower than his 9.2% career average. Both players are currently playing on the two worst shooting teams in the NHL this season. Anaheim is dead last at the moment with 4.98% and Pittsburgh is next at 5.66%. If those numbers hold for both teams it will be the worst team level shooting percentages in a full season since before the 2004-05 lockout (I did not look further back than that).
Domenic Galamini has a new tool that is available called a WARRIOR chart and it can directly compare two players in the style of a HERO chart. What better time to use one than when two teams make a trade? Here is a visual history of both players using this tool
@GunnerStaal Best estimate at their true talent level at that particular point in time. Considers L3 yrs but weights recent output the most
— Domenic Galamini (@MimicoHero) January 15, 2016
These are two players who have had different paths to the present. Hagelin displayed more consistency and better numbers in the past and has recently seen a decline. Perron has been the opposite. He has improved in areas over the years . Right now their numbers have aligned to be very similar.
This is a move which can work out or not (I know great analysis, right?).
If tangible offense continues to elude Hagelin like it has in Anaheim and it did for Perron in Pittsburgh this deal is going to be pretty bad. As stated above the Penguins would have effectively signed the 2015-16 version of Perron to a three year contract extension.
If Hagelin can improve his points/60, which has been on a steady decline, then it could be helpful considering how bad Pittsburgh's left wing situation is in both the short term and long term.
Adam Clendening was also included in the trade. As far as Clendening goes he was never going to earn playing time on the Penguins NHL roster for whatever reason. Moving his 761k cap hit can make way for the following
GMJR on Clendening/Pouliot: "Certainly it opens the door that (Pouliot) gets here quicker."
— Bill West (@BWest_Trib) January 16, 2016
It is impossible to say if this trade is good or bad right now because it is honestly a coin flip. Considering the fragility of Pittsburgh's roster construction these days coin flip roster decisions are going to pack a punch either good or bad. Time will tell.
Thanks for reading!