Follow @james_tanner123 With only six goals in 45 games this year, and a career average of less than a point every other game, there is no question that the Oilers' Nail Yakupov has failed to live up to his selection as a first overall pick in the 2012 NHL Entry Draft.
You can look at the way Yakupov has been deployed - constantly forced to the third or fourth lines, oddly missing from power-plays, and perhaps even a scapegoat for the frustration of a succession of frustrated coaches. You can do that, but it doesn't take away from the fact that he's a first overall pick that has six goals this year.
It is really easy to put down Yakupov, blame him, wish you'd picked Ryan Murray instead and suggest trading him.
But that isn't realistic. Trading Yakupov now is akin to trading Pouliot and not a former 1st overall pick- you're not getting a ton for him. I heard people suggest a second rounder. If that is true, then what point is there in trading him?
Beyond the Results
Yak's six goals and ten assists in 45 games look terrible, but let's take a deeper look:
-His PDO is a VERY low 97.7 (Which used to be a good hard-rock station in Toronto back in the day) and he has five of his six goals and 75% of his points at even-strength.
-His possession numbers are just fractionally below 50% and, for the most part, he seems to have a positive impact on his linemates.
-If you look at things like shots, scoring chances and high-danger scoring chances, Yakupov has negative differentials, but they aren't that far from even and the fact that he plays on a last place team and usually doesn't have very good linemates probably has more to do with that than anything.
His most common linemates: Letestu and Pouliot, which is ridiculous for a player of his talent. The most common defenseman he plays with Sekara (fine) and Gryba (Jesus!).
Furthermore, his ice time is only 16 minutes per game. He averages less than 2 minutes on the Power Play.
So you can add Todd McLellan to the list of coaches who are screwing up Yakupov.
Whether the Oilers plan to move him or not, they need to put him in a position to succeed. The idea for his career up to this point seems to have been that he has to earn it and force their hand, but that's a dumb way to approach things and just creates a circle of failure (i.e he can't succeed because he's in a bad spot but he can't get to a good spot without succeeding and so on and etc forever and ever).
The Oilers should treat Yakupov like the 1st overall pick he is. They should be focused on either getting the best out of him or making his trade value something akin to his draft position.
To that end, not trading him last Monday was the greatest move they could have made.
Going forward, they should play Yakupov with McDavid and Eberle exclusively (as they actually have been the last couple games). He should get 20 minutes per game and be on the first powerplay, where they should work on employing the Ovechkin cross-ice one-timer as one of their main options.
In the end, Nail Yakupov remains an incredibly talented player and the Oilers need to do whatever they can to make it happen for him. His possession numbers indicate that he doesn't hurt the team defensively and his effect on linemates, low shooting percentage and PDO suggest that he has played better than the stats suggest.
He's an incredible asset and if I was another team, I'd be hovering over the corpse of the Oilers trying to get him for peanuts. The Oilers were smart to keep him and rehabilitating his reputation should be their priority for the rest of the season.