Teams have trailed 3-1 in a best-of-seven series a total of 277 times. Of those 277 times, only 28 times has a team come back to win the series. That is about 10% of the time. Historically speaking, the odds are not in the Capitals favor. After watching both and Penguins and Capitals throughout the playoffs, it is easy to see why people are writing off the Capitals. However, we have seen similar stories in recent years. Great teams are made when the their backs are against the wall.
In 2014, the LA Kings overcame a 3-0 deficit in round one to defeat the San Jose Sharks. Those first two games were brutal for the King, losing 6-3 and 7-2. The Kings went on to win the Stanley Cup that year.
In 2013, the Chicago Blackhawks took game one in the Western Conference Semifinals against the Detroit Red Wings. They dropped the next three games, putting themselves in a 3-1 hole, only to fight their way back, and continue on all the way to win the Stanley Cup.
In 2010, both the Montreal Canadiens and Philadelphia Flyers came back from significant deficits, although the Flyers comeback is the most talked about. The Flyers became the third team in NHL history to come back after going down 3-0 in the Eastern Conference Semifinals against the Boston Bruins.
After 2010, you would have to go back to 2004 to find a team overcoming a 3-1 series deficit.
It should also be noted that in recent history, the Capitals have been on the other side of those 3-1 comebacks. Just last year, the Caps gave up a 3-1 series lead in the Semifinals against the Rangers, and they also gave up a 3-1 series lead in 2010 to the Montreal Canadiens. The Caps know that the fourth win is the hardest to get.
What has made those teams successful? Obviously, they had talented players. That alone wasn’t what brought them success. It isn’t just one thing, and it varies depending on the team and situation. However, when push came to shove, these teams weren’t asking for just one player to stand up. Usually there is a hero, but the team isn’t looking around pointing at who needs to elevate their game. If they are in a situation where their season is on the line, they all need to elevate their game. Most importantly, when the pressure was on, they don’t get down on themselves. The Capitals have the pieces; they have the talent. That said, they haven’t looked like a team that is ready to combat a 3-1 deficit. It has felt like they are depending on the skills of Holtby - who is capable of standing on his head. They haven’t been playing poorly, but they need to be taking advantage of their opportunities and get more (and better) shots on Murray.
The Pittsburgh Penguins were the hottest team in the league down the final stretch. None of this is meant to take away from how well this Pens team is playing. Admittedly, this was not how I expected this series to play out. I thought we’d be heading back to Washington all tied up for game 5. These two teams have so much going for them, and while Penguins fans wouldn’t mind ending this series tomorrow night, I am hoping to see some more fight from the Capitals. Heading into the playoffs, it was clear that anything less than a deep run in the playoffs would be a failure for this Capitals team. So, here we are, heading to game 5 with their season on the line. Their backs are against the wall. The Capitals have everything in place to be a great team. Tomorrow night, we find out.
About Jillian:
Jillian Fisher is a sport anthropologist who focuses on sport culture and fan culture. Growing up with three older brothers, sports have always played a large part of her life. While she enjoys all sports, hockey has always been her first passion. Jillian has traveled across the world - from the Philippines to Italy and across the US - studying the impact of sports, all while cheering for the home team and discovering what makes each place so unique, even being referred to as the Anthony Bourdain of sports. She is currently filming her own web series, Out of the Park, that highlights the different cultures surrounding our favorite sports across the country. Always in search of the next event, Jillian can be contacted on Twitter, Instagram, or emailed at jillianfisher00[at]gmail.com