What would be the key element of a defenseman’s game? Defense right? I mean, it is right there in the name. Defense-man. We have entered a stage in the game now though where the term is fairly loose. After all, Mike Green and Erik Karlsson have been players who have risen to prominence playing sparing defense. Their approach and analytical success comes from a style of defense where offense is actually the best defense. Doughty also seems to fall into that category at times. It is less about suppressing shots in his own end, but more about creating and possessing the puck more in the opposing end.
However, with tons of new metrics available, we can get a feel for defensemen and what they bring to the table in various evaluative forms. One of those forms is scoring chance data. Some players put forth a high number of scoring chances and corsi events while also giving up a lot. Nevertheless they still come out ahead. A forward set that runs on that example for the Kings would almost certainly have to be Jeff Carter and Tyler Toffoli. The duo allow the 3rd and 4th most scoring chances per 60 while on the ice, but on the flip side they create the most and 4th most overall on the team amongst regular skaters. In the end they are generally more threatening of a line than they are a liability.
So how does that hash out with the defensemen this year so far on the Kings? How are they faring in scoring chances, high-scoring chances, and shot suppression?
In terms of relative on-ice scoring chances for versus what the team generates with the player off the ice, it may be slightly surprising.
Hm, McNabb and Doughty seem low right? They are still a plus-50 percent pairing which is good by most standards, but being lowest on the team is somewhat surprising considering this is the top pairing and Doughty is lauded as one of the finest blue-liners in the league.
Before we march further into different stats let’s compare these last numbers, which encompasses all scoring situations (Leading/trailing), to what these guys do when the Kings are LEADING games. All of this data runs at 5v5 mind you.
Again, this is not good for Doughty or McNabb. Not only do they rank on the bottom for relative scoring chances for on the ice versus off the ice, they are both sub 50% in scoring chance for percentages. Put in layman’s terms, when the Kings are leading the game, Doughty and McNabb are simply on the ice for more scoring chances for than against.
Now let’s roll out the “High-Danger chances… and use the same filters.
As a reminder, thanks to War-on-Ice, we can get a good visual of where exactly the “High-Danger… area is. It is, for the most part, exactly where you think it is.
Let’s put on the filters.
First, in respect to all score situations:
I really wish I could tell you it gets better for Doughty and McNabb when the Kings are leading, but……. it gets worse. Much, much, worse.
High dangers chances when the Kings are leading go overwhelmingly in favor of opponents with Doughty and McNabb on the ice. Shots for percentages and corsi also followed a similar trend. That is not what you want out of your top pairing whatsoever. In fact, if you put these two against the entirety of the league, they rank 24th and 27th worst amongst 198 eligible defensemen this season. That would factor out to one of the bottom 10-20 pairings in the NHL defensively when their team has a lead. Only Jamie McBain has a lower leading score corsi for percentage on the Kings.
The positives though all really come in the form of Muzzin and Martinez, who seem to stay positive in almost every and all situation. Like in leading situations, the duo are simply manhandling opponents with a 60-63% high danger chance for percentage. Muzzin, Martinez, Ehrhoff, and Forbort all do well at keeping leads protected by creating more than they give up. In a 60 minute rate statistic, McNabb and Doughty are giving up 31.09 and 31.34 scoring chances against per 60 when leading.
For Doughty this is a stark departure from normalcy. If we are being entirely honest he has yet to really dominate when the Kings are a team that is leading in a game. However, this year he has definitely slotted in a much more negative place.
The goal becomes to explain it before simply rolling it down to “He and McNabb are just not a good pairing… and/or “McNabb is holding him back…. You have to explore elsewhere.
The Quality of Competition rankings also do not favor Doughty or McNabb in that regard. Doughty is getting fairly evenly skewed matches against opponent difficulties. This is to be expected of a defenseman who plays 26 minutes a night.
How about zone starts?
What could potentially be explaining Doughty’s seemingly poor play when the team is leading is zone starts.
Overall Doughty’s zone starts look like this at 5v5.
OZFO%: 38.4 DFZO%: 26.5 NFZO%: 35.0
However, when the Kings lead in games something happens.
OFZO%: 30.4 DFZO%: 37.0 NFZO%: 32.6
That’s a difference in defensive zone draws and zone starts of over 10% overall versus when the team is leading. McNabb has a similar spike in zone skews. Score effects almost certainly play a part in this as well, as teams start to settle into more of a shell and opponents start using their top lines much more frequently. Thus, in theory the Kings would be using their top pairing for important draws in their own zone more frequently while protecting a lead against the best opponents. Before we say that Doughty and McNabb are almost set up to be buried when leading, (which they are certainly starting on the back foot far more often while leading than when trailing), let’s glance at other players.
Muzzin saw a bounce from 29.9% to over 44% in defensive zone draws. Martinez likewise saw 31% jump to 42%. This is not an issue isolated purely to Doughty and McNabb, however the problem of struggling with these minutes IS isolated strictly to them. When the Kings are moving to a "Protect lead" scenario, the Kings top pairing is getting the most ice-time out of any other King pairing at 5v5. Both play nearly 8 minutes a game while leading at even strength. While you cannot completely eliminate these minutes obviously, you might want to protect them a little bit more since the scoring chance numbers have come back so poorly. Teams are exposing No. 8 and No. 3 when the Kings are leading. It might be via zone starts, matchups, or them simply just playing too loose and too aggressive. Heck, maybe it is that they are not aggressive enough, thus allowing more opposing possession and chances. Who knows?
In a purely defensive aspect, the Kings best pairing this season has been Muzzin and Martinez. They have been caught on the wrong side of some goals for percentage numbers, but that can largely be attributed to a low on ice save percentage for the tandem. Christian Ehrhoff has also performed admirably but has been cut out of the lineup due to some less than clean exit zone numbers (-9% off team average) and a low PDO (91.7, 2nd lowest on team). Derek Forbort and Jamie McBain have both been very nice analytics surprises in many regards.
If you want to balance the leading score with the trailing scores, everything becomes a bit different. When it comes to scoring chance generation when trailing in games, Doughty and McNabb are great.
SCF%
McNabb: 72.09% - 41.76 SCF60 vs. 16.16 SCA60. Doughty: 63.93% - 33.05 SCF60 vs. 18.65 SCA60.
This is certainly a concern for the Kings moving forward. Is it worth addressing right now? With the Kings winning more than they are losing, changes, to the defense group at least, may come less frequently than that of the forward group.
Bottom line, Doughty and McNabb have not been a good shutdown pairing this season when the Kings have a lead. Despite the team holding an overall corsi for of 51.4% while leading and a 49.0% shots for (2nd and 8th in the league respectively) they are the worst pairing at preventing chances, shots, and the ever important high danger chance. They are the only two players on the Kings roster that are sub 50% corsi for with the Kings leading, and the only pairings sub 46% in shots for with the team leading. Maybe the most frightening stat over all is that both McNabb and Doughty's PDO (On-ice shot versus save percentage) in leading situations is scarily high. Usually 100 is considered the standard, and both Doughty and McNabb are 2nd and 3rd on the team behind Tanner Pearson with a 105.1 and a 104.9 PDO. They are getting a save percentage that is hovering around .950, so they should both probably go buy Jonathan Quick a dinner. How long will it be until those numbers rocket back down? At the rate in which they give up shots, high-danger chances, and scoring chances, it will not be long.
Does Sutter need to revert back to a Doughty-Muzzin pairing late in games? Should he back off the overall usage of Brayden McNabb? This may be something worth monitoring as the season progresses. How does the Kings top pairing fair games in which their team holds a lead. So far, not good.
(Stats provided by War-on-ice.com, Behindthenet.ca, and stats.hockeyanalysis.com)
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