One thing that is nice about Pierre Dorion is that he isn’t very boring as a GM. That doesn’t mean he always makes the right moves, but sometimes he’ll do something that totally comes out of left field. The Zack Smith trade today was quite surprising.
The Senators shipped out the 31-year-old to the Chicago Blackhawks and received another 31-year-old, Artem Anisimov:
We've got movement! The @NHLBlackhawks have traded Artem Anisimov to the @Senators in exchange for @Smit_Treat15.
— NHL (@NHL) July 16, 2019
DETAILS: https://t.co/9tZ9vmXa20 pic.twitter.com/SCDbhvwkOt
I can see the rationale from the Blackhawks perspective, as they saved $1.3M in cap space over the next two seasons. They will be wanting to go all-in as soon as possible, and extra cap space will be needed, plus they probably think Smith can be a fine player in the bottom-six. The trade still makes sense for the Senators, but it's definitely odd to see it come to fruition.
First of all, Smith passed through waivers last season, so clearly the league does not think he is worth anywhere near his current contract. I thought Ottawa would have to throw in a sweetener in order for somebody to take on Smith’s contract, and the fact that they got a better offensive forward in return is what’s so strange to me. Secondly, it’s not as if this move helps the Senators in the long-term. Anisimov has two years left on his contract at $4.45M and will almost certainly not be on the team when they are back to being good again. He can be a veteran presence in the bottom-six, but it’s not as if Ottawa acquired a piece such as Connor Brown who is still young and can still potentially contribute down the line.
That’s not a critique of the deal, but it’s simply why I would never expect a deal like this to get done.
Overall, Ottawa got the better end of the deal. It wouldn’t be a Senators trade without positive financial implications, and that’s exactly why they waited until July to get this done:
Artem Anisimov was paid a $2M signing bonus on July 1st. He's making $2M the rest of the of the way and then $3M next season vs the $6.5M that Zack Smith is making the next two.
— Graeme Nichols (@6thSens) July 16, 2019
#Sens have increased their cap hit, while reducing their salary expenses:
— CapFriendly (@CapFriendly) July 16, 2019
Anisimov (2 yrs remaining)
Cap hit: $4.55M
Salary owed: $5M in salary & signing bonus
Smith (2 yrs remaining)
Cap hit: $3.25M
Salary owed: $6.5M#Sens Result:
+$1.3M cap hit/yr
-$1.5M salary expenses
Ottawa has more cap space than is necessary right now and in the future, so having Anisimov’s larger cap hit doesn’t matter at all to them. All that matters is that Eugene Melnyk is paying $1.5M less over the next two seasons, which I’m sure was a huge factor in this trade. It’s impossible to deny anymore because these money-saving deals are most definitely a thing for the Senators.
Anisimov has averaged 40 points per season since joining the league in 2009, and this past season he scored 37 points in 78 games. Smith has averaged just 26 points per season, although over the past four seasons he has averaged 32. Over the past few seasons, the two of them have actually been quite similar despite the difference in points:
Zack Smith (to Chicago) is a third-liner with some penalty-kill upside. Artemi Anisimov (to Ottawa) is /also/ a third-liner with some more penalty-kill upside. pic.twitter.com/By7Ncr9QUB
— Micah Blake McCurdy (@IneffectiveMath) July 16, 2019
The @EvolvingWild guys have, for 2017-19:
— Travis Yost (@travisyost) July 16, 2019
Zack Smith: -1.4 WAR
Artem Anisimov: -1.2 WAR
Yikes.
The main difference between the two of them is their linemates over the years, as Anisimov has had some fantastic Blackhawks players around him, whereas Smith only briefly had Mark Stone in 2015-16:
Last three seasons is even more lopsided...
— Colin Cudmore (@CudmoreColin) July 16, 2019
Zack Smith: Jean-Gabriel Pageau, Magnus Paajarvi, Tom Pyatt, Mark Stone, Derick Brassard
Artem Anisimov: Patrick Kane, Artemi Panarin, Nick Schmaltz, Brandon Saad, Alex DeBrincat
I would still rather have Anisimov, although it doesn’t look to be as big of a slam dunk as I initially thought it was. Critics of this trade will note that Ottawa lost some “grit… today, and Smith was certainly one of the first players you thought of when you thought of toughness. Anisimov isn’t exactly that type of player, but Ottawa has also added Nikita Zaitsev and Ron Hainsey to their roster, so if anything, their additions and subtractions in that category are a wash.
Furthermore, “grit… is something that can often be overvalued, and Smith ranks 14th in minor penalties over the past four seasons (Anisimov ranks T-347th), so it will be nice to lose someone who spent too much time in the penalty box. I’m sure it was important for Pierre Dorion to also get a veteran if they were going to move on from Smith, and that’s what Anisimov is. I can’t speak for his reputation in the room, and I don’t think many Senators fans know enough to even have an informed opinion.
Anisimov is a centre but can also play left wing, so it will be interesting to see if it’s either him or Jean-Gabriel Pageau as the 4C. If both of them are at centre, that would mean that Logan Brown would not be in Ottawa, which would be less than ideal. However, they might recognize that and put Anisimov on the left wing just so that Brown can be in the NHL. The lineup could then look like this:
Tkachuk-White-Batherson Duclair-Tierney-C. Brown Anisimov-L. Brown-Ryan Ennis-Pageau-Balcers Boedker
Smith was a player who was easy to root for considering his path to the NHL and his style of play, and I will genuinely miss his personality on the team. I’ll remember his out-of-nowhere 25-goal season in 2015-16 and the fact that he was a part of the 2017 Conference Finals run. He sent a heartfelt message to the fans on Twitter:
— Zack Smith (@Smit_Treat15) July 16, 2019
I know that many people will miss him despite the past rough couple of seasons.
Ottawa slightly improved their team today, plus they saved some cash. A good day for the players and an even better one for the owner.