Tonight the Penguins will go down a far too traveled path. They will be playing a game without Sidney Crosby because he is currently in concussion protocol. It is the second concussion of the season for Crosby and as always, there is no real time table for his return.
This is a huge blow to the Penguins as they face a formidable opponent. The loss of Kris Letang was enough to overcome. Adding Crosby's absence to the mix makes things really difficult.
With Letang on the ice the Penguins controlled 53.38% of the shot attempts this year at even-strength. Without Letang that number drops to 49.4%.
When Sidney Crosby was on the ice this year the team controlled 53.89% of the play and when Sid left the ice it drops to 48.49%.
That's a tough thing to overcome. Not many teams have the luxury of having a Crosby and/or a Letang, but when your roster structure is based on guys like that it isn't a next player up kind of thing.
Some people will be looking at Evgeni Malkin to step up in Crosby's absence. Here's the thing, he already has. The man leads all players in playoff scoring with 15 points. His 5v5 points per 60 in the postseason is 3.7, good for third overall. His all situations points per 60 is 5.94(!) which leads all players. With what we know about this sport and player's ability to generate offense, Malkin is probably due for a mini slump if anything. So when you ask Evgeni Malkin to step up, where does he go if he's already on the top step?
Malkin is going to do what Malkin does and that is create for others unlike any other player on the Penguins current roster. Whether or not the points follow is something we'll have to see. If we are looking for players to "step up" we should probably draw our attention to some other Penguins and not Malkin. Players like Conor Sheary who only have a 1.11 points per 60 at even-strength. Or Nick Bonino (0.87). Or what about getting some offense from defensemen like Trevor Daley and/or Olli Maatta? Carl Hagelin and Chris Kunitz have been out injured for quite some time, but they too will need to contribute.
The top four point producers in the playoffs are Evgeni Malkin, Phil Kessel, Sidney Crosby, and Jake Guentzel. Those guys have stepped up. They've needed to step up because of the deficit in shot attempts the team is currently suffering. Depth is what wins you championships and it is time for the other Penguins players to rise to the occasion to make up for the Crosby loss.
Without Crosby here is what I would do with the forwards lines
Guentzel-Malkin-Hornqvist Hagelin-Bonino-Kessel Kunitz-Cullen-Rust Kuhnhackl-Rowney-Wilson
The top line was used for ~55 minutes this year in the regular season. They controlled 59.38% of the play. Malkin is a zone entry machine which takes care of one of Hornqvist's weaknesses. Jake Guentzel is a gifted passer and finisher and can help take some of the burden away from Malkin on that front. The big thing for me is that if Hornqvist is not playing with Crosby and/or Malkin you will not get the most out of him. His sample with Nick Bonino this year is miserable. You have to put players in a position to succeed, especially when you are down a guy like Sid.
Jake Guentzel is a natural center, but I think asking him to do something he hasn't done at all at the NHL level is a tough ask against the Washington Capitals in the middle of the playoffs.
I'm putting HBK back together. The 2016-17 version of this line has been crap. That isn't lost on me, but I'm not sure what the alternative is to get Nick Bonino going. We know for a fact that this line can work and that it can excel. I'm taking a risk that they can find some old magic. Nick Bonino needs Phil Kessel a lot more than Geno does. spreading the superstar talent between two lines makes logistical sense.
Matt Cullen is going to need some help so I'm going to throw him the best two wingers I have left available. Both Kunitz and Rust have found success in a top six role in the past. Right now that won't be needed. They just need to provide support to a 40 year old center who is going to get more minutes than he probably should.
The fourth line is going to have the look of a fourth line, unfortunately. Given the injuries there just isn't enough talent to roll with four scoring lines right now. If you can get ten minutes out of this line, great.
There is no perfect line combination that exists without Sidney Crosby. This setup attempts to put each player in a position to succeed and that is all you can really do as a coach.
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In non-playoff news it appears things are getting serious between the Buffalo Sabres and Jason Botterill
Word is BUF had some kind of second interview with Jason Botterill (PIT) for GM position. But I'm not sure where process stands.
— Elliotte Friedman (@FriedgeHNIC) May 3, 2017
Thanks for reading!