In the last blog we took a look at the Edmonton Oilers that could provide more than they did the following season. Today we will look at the players that will likely regress, either in a reduced role on the team or in their overall point production. Ryan Nugent-Hopkins Last Season: 82GP 37-67-104
It was a phenomenal year for the 2011 first overall selection by the Edmonton Oilers. RNH destroyed his previous career high of 28 goals and 69 points with a near 40 goal season and a 100+ point campaign. Highly impressive for a player that originally was slotted in on the third line to start the season.
It's highly unlikely that we see Nuge replicate these numbers. His average shooting percentage hovers around 12% and last year he shot 18.4%. In addition, his powerplay numbers jumped massively. His previous career high in goals and assists on the powerplay were 9 and 22. He had 15 PP goals and 38 PP assists last season.
There is reason to be optimistic about RNH's future however. Despite two bad seasons in 20/21 and 21/22 where he had only 7 EV goals, Nuge has been a consistent 15-19 goal scorer at even strength, even in years where he has missed 15-20 games with injuries. Nuge has shown to be the most successful offensively when playing the wing; the position he now plays with the most regularity.
I'm not expecting another 100 point season from RNH but if healthy he should be putting up 70-80 points. A drop off for sure, but certainly still a highly effective player to have on the roster.
Zach Hyman Last Season: 82GP 36-47-83
Here is the thing about Zach Hyman. Normally I would first be talking about how Hyman's surge in points came from an unsustainable shooting percentage... that was not the case. Hyman averages a 12.2 SH%, last season he shot 13%, well within his regular amount. In his first season with the Oilers in 21/22 Hyman had 21 EV goals in 76 games. Last season he had 21 EV goals in 79 games.
There were two reasons for his uptick in points; his EV assists and his PP production. The EV assists is an intriguing one. The best answer I have comes from the fact that Connor McDavid became far more of a shooter last season and Hyman reaped those benefits of being his setup man. McDavid adapting more of a shoot first mentality is not something I expect him to suddenly lose so if Hyman stays as his linemate than those numbers certainly are sustainable.
The powerplay numbers are another area that could result in a drop off but also could easily be a new normal for Hyman. In his first year with the Oilers, Hyman averaged 2:24 on the powerplay while last season he was averaging over a minute more at 3:29. The other interesting note is Jesse Puljujarvi also received ample time on the PP as the net front option but now Hyman is really the only option for that role. Hyman was tied for 12th in the NHL last season with PP goals (alongside RNH actually) so the overall goal scoring may drop but the Oilers powerplay is still going to be close to the dominant force it was last season.
Most of these notes seem to be highlighting why Hyman's numbers won't go down so here is the other side of the coin; Connor Brown. Brown may end up playing more with McDavid than Hyman does and depending on how he excels in that role could also end up on the top unit powerplay. Both of those would take away from Hyman's points, even though Zach Hyman would still be playing with an elite player in Leon Draisaitl.
The other factor is age. Hyman had a career year at the age of 30. He is now 31 and eventually we will see the player start to decline. I don't see Hyman suddenly falling off a cliff in production next season but it's tough to expect him to surpass his 83 point campaign as well. Regardless this is still a very effective player for Edmonton. Mattias Ekholm Previous Season (With Edmonton) 21GP 4-10-14
Here's the thing, Ekholm is going to be an excellent player for the Edmonton Oilers this season and a highly effective top pairing defender. I don't see his overall game declining, just his overall production. His 14 points in 21 games for the Oilers over a full season would be a 55 point season, beating his previous career high by 11 points. The flip side of that is Ekholm has never played with a McDavid and Draisaitl before in his career.
His 4 goals in 21 games was off a SH% of 11.1%, his averaging being 5.3%. Over a full season if the Oilers are getting 10 goals from Ekholm that would be excellent; a 16+ goal season, especially considering he doesn't get as much PP time is a bit too much to assume. Regardless, Ekholm is going to be a key piece of the Oilers blueline this season and will help take minutes away from Darnell. Speaking of which...
Darnell Nurse Last Season: 82GP 12-31-43
Here's the thing... I actually believe it might be better for the team if Nurse produces less next season. The Oilers need their highest paid defenseman to play like it next season. Nurse has always produced well at 5 on 5 but the team desperately needs him to be a force in their own end.
The likely Ekholm and Bouchard pairing should be able to play 23+ minutes a night meaning Nurse could be kept around the same as opposed to the 25+ a night he averaged over the past couple of seasons. A more defensively responsible Nurse would likely mean fewer points but it would certainly better help the team as well.
Did I miss anyone? Who do you think will regress on the Oilers next season? Leave your thoughts in the comments section.