The Lightning played poorly in the first period, rallied in the second, and played even against the Flames in the third, pulling out a 5-4 shootout win by the skin of their teeth. Winning on the road is tough, especially against a Western Conference Cup contender. The Lightning keep racking up points and winning despite wildly uneven performances. As a Cup contender, Tampa Bay is held to a higher standard since the measuring stick is Cup-or-bust. So, what went right and what went wrong last night?
What went right: The Lightning are living and dying by the stretch pass. Unless hemmed in for an extended period of time, their forwards tiptoe higher and higher in the zone, which places a lot of importance on the Lightning defensemen’s ability to complete the first pass and their mobility in terms of escaping the charging enemy forecheckers.
On the Steven Stamkos goal, the Flames had three forwards in the Lightning’s defensive zone. This would have been advantageous for the Flames if their F3 had sealed the passing lane up the boards, but because the F3 failed to do that, Dan Girardi completed a stretch pass to Nikita Kucherov in the neutral zone, which was completely barren. Flames defenseman T.J. Brodie attempted to step up on Kucherov, but Kucherov wisely bought a second or two by stepping toward the middle, and connected on a pass to Adam Erne as he raced through the middle with speed. A rush chance ensued, and Stamkos’s pass was deflected into the net off Brodie’s stick.
What went right could easily have gone wrong. For better or worse, the Lightning forwards are migrating toward the neutral zone, and that leads to greater separation between the forwards and defensemen. If that Girardi pass gets intercepted, the Lightning would have had to foil the three Flames forwards who were puttering around in Tampa Bay’s own zone. It didn’t, and the Lightning manufactured a goal out of it. But the margin for error was minuscule.
The game-tying goal by Girardi also relied on the Lightning completing the stretch pass. With less than five minutes left, Anton Stralman grabbed possession of the puck after a weak shot attempt and flung it up the boards. Again, there were three Flames forwards in the zone and, like the Stamkos goal, the Flames’ F3 had an opportunity to intercept the puck. But Stralman connected on a pass to Yanni Gourde, and Gourde made the smart play as his linemates went for a line change.
Gourde carried the puck in on the entry, and before the Flames defenseman could close on him, he hurled the puck on net. It required an easy save by the Flames goaltender, but it precipitated the forecheck for the new Tampa Bay forwards who were jumping onto the ice. Right on cue, Alex Killorn, as the F2, seized on the puck before Calgary could control possession, and with support from Anthony Cirelli, the Lightning transported the puck off the boards and to the point. Girardi’s strike, buoyed by the ramp-like effect of the Flames’ defender’s stick (which provided extra elevation), gave the Lightning the temporary lead.
The entries for the Lightning were spotty last night. For chunks of time, Calgary did a nice job isolating the Lightning puck-carrier and had a forward or defenseman confront him in the neutral zone. Sometimes the Lightning puck-carrier who was under duress from the Flames skater would force an east-west pass to alleviate the pressure. The Flames did a nice job of eliminating the passing lanes and muffling the rush attack against the Point-Kucherov line. This is why it was imperative that the Lightning sling more shots on goal from bad angles, and use shots from distance to create shots in the slot. It is not an accident that the Killorn goal came off of McDonagh’s quick-release toss from the point, which created a rebound and a follow-up goal.
The Lightning generated four goals at even strength. Three of those four goals were deflections. Some lines (cough, the Point-Kucherov line) continue to pass up shooting opportunities in the hope of finding the perfect passing lane. They should take note of how the offense was generated in this game and simplify if their transition attack is sputtering and the seam passes are being disrupted.
What went wrong: The first period was a mess for Tampa Bay. At 5v5, the Flames collected 14 Scoring Chances to the Lightning’s 5. Calgary accumulated more shot attempts and more High-Danger Chances. The biggest issue for the Lightning was defensive awareness. On the Sam Bennett goal, there needed to be communication between Erik Cernak and the weak side forward if Ryan McDonagh pinched. If the forwards want to stay deep and not have one rotate high to cover the McDonagh pinch, Cernak needs to make sure he retreats to an area where there is not a lacuna of space between him and the far side boards. Of course, that is exactly what happened as Cernak was almost directly behind McDonagh, leaving virtually the entire neutral zone wide open.
There were echoes of this sloppiness with this pairing later in the game. In the first minute of the second, when McDonagh pinched, no forward covered over the top, and Calgary generated a two-on-one, which led to a penalty on Cernak as Bennett attacked the net. Another time, with three minutes and change elapsed in the second frame, it was Cernak who was caught pinching and McDonagh who let Gaudreau get behind him for a breakaway. This apathy toward odd-man rushes needs to be shored up immediately.
The second and third Calgary goals exposed the Lightning’s brutally inadequate pairing of Girardi with Braydon Coburn. On the first defensive lapse, those two were deployed against Sean Monahan, Johnny Gaudreau, and Elias Lindholm, and the result was predictably disastrous. Girardi took a bad angle and allowed Gaudreau to cycle the pass behind the net to Lindholm, who won the puck battle against J.T. Miller. Finally, Coburn, completely oblivious to the sniper in his midst, let Monahan creep behind him and whack his stick forward before Coburn could swat the puck away.
The odd part of this sequence was that it was a deliberate choice by Coach Jon Cooper to play this pair. It wasn’t a case of the Flames having last change so Calgary won the matchup battle. Cooper just made a gaffe. Ostensibly, he thought that since these two players have no offensive capabilities that utilizing them for a defensive zone faceoff makes sense, regardless of the matchup. And to be fair, that calculus hasn’t steered him wrong; the Lightning unapologetically roll four lines.
In keeping with this worldview, Girardi and Coburn were trotted out there after a TV timeout for a draw in their own end, and the Flames ran a set play where Gaudreau shredded Girardi as he sprinted to the far circle hash mark and whipped a shot on goal. Nevertheless, after seeing the significant mismatch in terms of foot speed, Cooper decided to keep those two out there after the whistle. Monahan scored shortly after.
The Mikael Backlund goal doesn’t need to be rehashed, but it was a comedy of errors. There was Coburn trying to pass to Girardi through the middle of the ice, and Girardi failing to control the pass, which led to the Flames regaining control. There was the failure in communication between Gourde and Coburn as Gourde faked like he was walling off Backlund in the low slot, but instead did a fly-by toward his wing that left the Flames forward wide open. (And with the eyesore of the Lightning overloading three skaters on two Flames who were not in a scoring area.)
Those initial three Calgary goals made a tangible impact, but they tell an incomplete story of the first period because not all of the Lightning mistakes materialized into goals. After the back-to-back goals-against debacle for Girardi and Coburn, Cooper moved Girardi to play with Victor Hedman. But on the Lightning’s next defensive zone faceoff against the Backlund line, the Flames spent 50 seconds in the Lightning’s defensive zone, generated three shot attempts, and maintained a cycle because they kept winning races and puck battles.
What was disturbing about the Lightning’s performance was how many second-chance opportunities they conceded, how sloppy they were in their own zone in terms of defensive coverage and first passes on breakouts, and how for the majority of the game they were completely incapable of stifling Gaudreau, who was able to create offense at will.
And yet, the Lightning won—again. They won against an explosive offense, and with their backup goaltender making incredible saves to keep them alive. The show goes on.