Last night 1-1 (even) YTD 140-117-3 +31.90 Units
It has been a light week so far with not too many games each night and tonight is no different with only 6 games on tap, with 3 of them rematches from Monday night. It will be interesting to see how the Jets come out at home off the long roadie. Huge game for first place in the North Division. Then you have the Flames and Canucks battling it out for the final playoff spot too.
Watch out for the Dallas Stars and Arizona Coyotes as fatigue will become a problem for both teams in the coming 2 weeks. Dallas is on a 7 game roadie, 8 of their next 9 on the road. Don’t forget Dallas played 17 games in 30 nights in March alone and they will be having to make up more games again in April due to all the time missed in January and February from Covid. Meanwhile Arizona starts a 9 game road trip! Lastly, Nashville has won 8 of their last 9, red hot!
**I have started to research teams that come off at least a 5 game road trip and how they fare in their first game back home.** Its 6-5 to date. Toronto at Winnipeg, Jets off 7 game roadie. Play Toronto.
Scenario #1 – Teams that are rested, either sitting at home or on the road while their opponent plays the night before. 16-5 over the last 2 plus weeks of tracking it! Hitting at 75% rate! As well, the under is a nice 12-8-1 in these spots!
Scenario #2 – Teams that are playing each other in back to back games, in which the home team loses the first game, the record of the home team in the second game is 62-37. Hitting at 63% success rate! Buffalo fits the system tonight.
Scenario #3 – Teams playing back to back road games on consecutive nights tend to go under the total in the 2nd game. So far that trend is 29-21-2 when teams play on the road back to back nights.
Scenario #4 - One last angle I am tracking that is slightly profitable and similar to Scenario #1, is when any team loses the first game of a back to back against the same team, regardless if it’s on the road or at home, those teams are 86-64 in that situation. LA and Minny fit the sytem tonight.
Quick stat updates - First period totals going over were 4-3 last night and are 248-294 on the season. Road teams were 1-6 last night and are 248-287 on the season. Game totals going over the total were 2-5 last night and are 253-264-15 on the season.
Gamenotes for tonight –
Flyers/Sabres – Philly has won 5 of 6 head to head and the Sabres are winless in 18! Play Scenario #2.
Leafs/Jets – Winnipeg returns from a 7 game roadie in which they went 4-3 in 12 nights. Teams split the first 4 head to head and 3 of 4 went over. First time they are meeting in Winnipeg this season.
Yotes/Avs – Avs have won 4 of 6 head to head this year, but 4 of them have been one goal games.
LA/Vegas – Knights have won 4 of 5 this year head to head.
Wild/Sharks – The first 4 games head to head have rotated wins, Wild win, then SJ win…..so will it be the Wild in the 5th game? 3 of 4 have gone over the total.
Flames/Canucks – Vancouver has been off for a week now! Flames have won 4 of 6 head to head this season.
System plays all for 1 Unit each –
Leafs – ML(-141) Sabres – ML(+170) LA – ML(+190) Minny – ML(-157)
Non-system play – Canucks – ML(+105)(1 Unit)
Feel free to ask any questions in the blog and I always get back to everyone. I will have Twitter and Instagram going shortly. Good luck tonight!
Puckpix