Nathan MacKinnon, USA Today Sports
After a few days off for the holidays, the Vegas Golden Knights (20-15-4) return to action against the Colorado Avalanche (19-12-6) tonight at 7pm. Both teams are players in the Western Conference playoff landscape, so tonight’s game could very well be a playoff series preview, featuring two fun and exciting teams to watch.
A holiday break may be just what the Golden Knights needed. Goaltender Marc-Andre Fleury is fresh off two overtime losses and has started 16 times in the team’s last 17 games. A three-day break after that kind of stretch is well-earned. In addition to the workload of Fleury, the Golden Knights are battling the injury bug once again. Paul Stastny returned to the lineup on December 14th against the New Jersey Devils, but now the Golden Knights find themselves without defenseman Colin Miller and the newly signed Max Pacioretty. Miller had never missed a game since being claimed by the Golden Knights in the 2017 expansion draft and Pacioretty hit the IR for the second time this season. Pacioretty’s Vegas career is not off to a great start.
In Pacioretty’s absence, winger Brandon Pirri has filled in adequately, scoring goals in each of his first two games this season with the big club. Pirri extended his active point streak to three games on Sunday, picking up an assist in Vegas’ overtime loss to the Los Angeles Kings. Pirri has been one of the few bright spots on the VGK roster of late. His insertion on the second line has provided a similar spark to the one created by Cody Eakin’s promotion in the wake of the injury to Erik Haula. Haula remains out indefinitely, without many details being shared pertaining to his potential return to the lineup.
Colorado comes into town on a bit of a skid. In their last 10 games prior to the break, Colorado managed a subpar 3-6-1 record. The Avalanche are fueled by their top forward line, made up of Central Division All-Star Captain Nathan MacKinnon, Gabriel Landeskog, and NHL point-leader Mikko Rantanen. Outside of their top line, Colorado lacks any real established offensive threats. That lack of depth hasn’t hurt Colorado all that much to this point. They find themselves in third place in the Central Division, relying upon a competent defensive corps and two solid netminders in Semyon Varlamov (11-8-3, 2.79 GAA, .913 SV%) and Philipp Grubauer (8-3-3, 3.16 GAA, .900 SV%). Neither goaltender’s numbers will blow you away, but they always seem to do just enough to keep Colorado in the game long enough for their top liners to take over.
So just how good is this top line in Colorado?
On a team with overly uninspiring advanced metrics (49.01 Corsi For %, 50.11 Shots For %, and a 51.37 Scoring Chances For %), the trio of MacKinnon, Landeskog, and Rantanen are at the top of just about every statistical category. Here’s a look at their respective numbers in the major stat categories and the major drop in production outside of their Big Three.
Colorado’s Top Forward Line
Mikko Rantanen (#96): 16 goals, 43 assists, 59 points, +16 +/-, 50.7% Corsi For, 3.1 CF Rel.
Nathan MacKinnon (#29): 22 goals, 34 assists, 56 points, +15 +/-, 51.3% Corsi For, 4.2 CF Rel.
Gabriel Landeskog (#92): 24 goals, 19 assists, 43 points, +19 +/-, 51.1 Corsi For, 3.7 CF Rel.
Next Highest Totals (not 96, 29, or 92):
Goals: 10 (Carl Soderberg, C)
Assists: 20 (Tyson Barrie, D)
Points: 24 (Barrie, D)
+/-: +9 (Nikita Zadorov, D)
Vegas, on the other hand, is a team that can come at you with depth. Whether it is the top line of William Karlsson, Jonathan Marchessault, and Reilly Smith or the newly constructed second line of Stastny, Pirri, and Alex Tuch, Vegas has a unit that is bound to bring the offense to their opponent. The Golden Knights’ skill in their top-six, combined with the great territorial play of their fourth line, creates a recipe for opponents to get pinned in their own zone for large parts of games.
Colorado may be a team that is simply not deep enough to hang with the Vegas Golden Knights. Expect the Golden Knights to put forth a strong defensive effort against the top line of the Avalanche, quite possibly utilizing the Meat Grinders (Pierre-Edouard Bellemare centering Ryan Reaves and William Carrier) against them, early and often. That fourth line uses their speed, tenacity, and a brand of physical play to throw skill players off their game.
In the goals we will see Grubauer for Colorado, with Varlamov returning from an undisclosed illness that held him out of the Avalanche’s last game. On the other end of the ice will almost certainly be Fleury, as he is the unquestioned number one goaltender of this Golden Knights team. At some point, the Golden Knights will need to utilize Malcolm Subban more often, to try and rest Fleury for the end of the season/playoffs, but that doesn’t seem to be a concern of Head Coach Gerard Gallant or goaltending coach Dave Prior, at this point in the season.
Colorado brings unquestioned high-level talent into this match up with the Vegas Golden Knights, but as usual, their ability to score, will determine the outcome for the Avalanche. If the Golden Knights shut down that top unit, especially on the power play (27.27% efficiency), they will find themselves victorious this evening.
Following tonight’s game, the Golden Knights will hit the road, for a weekend back-to-back set of games. Saturday brings a rematch with the LA Kings and on Sunday they head to Glendale, Arizona for a game with the Coyotes, two Pacific Division opponents.
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