We have a few things to discuss today. Kyle Dubas made himself available to the media, we have an unfortunate injury update, and there is a player of interest available for trade. We’ll start with the injury update.
Bryan Rust is out week to week.
— Josh Yohe (@JoshYohe_PGH) December 11, 2023
I think we all kinda saw this coming. It still sucks. There’s no replacing Rust. He was having a really nice bounce back season and a key contributor. With Rakell already out this really stretches the team depth to a razor thin margin.
Kyle Dubas: "I don't think injuries can be any type of excuse... they're an opportunity for guys who have always wanted one, who came here for one... we want guys to run right through the door and take it and go."
— Pens Inside Scoop (@PensInsideScoop) December 11, 2023
I get the sentiment here, but the "next man up" theory only works when the replacements have a modicum of the talent they are replacing, especially for the type of role they are expected to replace. This theory is fine when we’re talking about a 4th line player. It’s not fine when we are talking about missing a top six player with a bare farm system and a bunch of defense first depth forwards.
Dubas spoke about Mike Sullivan’s job status, the depth of the team, expectations with injuries and call ups, and Puljujarvi
Kyle Dubas: "Being with Mike Sullivan every day and not only seeing his attention to detail on the systems and with the players, I think we're very fortunate to have Mike. Do I think he's the right person for this job, right now and far into the future? I absolutely do."
— Pens Inside Scoop (@PensInsideScoop) December 11, 2023
I’m not at all surprised by this. Everything to this point has shown Dubas holding Sullivan in high regard. I would be looking at Todd Reirden before Sullivan at this point. There is certainly validity to those asking about Sullivan’s effectiveness with this group after so much time. I certainly quibble with his in game management at times, but I’m also not going to pretend like the expected goals stuff isn’t in a good spot. There are still positives to point to. Don’t get me wrong the power play is a disgrace. It is malpractice to leave Reirden in charge of it whether he is on staff or not. The bigger issue is the ingredients Sullivan has been given…
Dubas: “If we have a depth problem, that’s on me more than anybody else.…
— Rob Rossi (@Real_RobRossi) December 11, 2023
This is accurate. While Dubas did an above average job considering the heaping pile of feces he inherited he also has some misses. The Karlsson trade was a terrific piece of business. Even with Reilly Smith’s slump acquiring him for the same pick they got for trading away Teddy Blueger was also a good piece of business. Alex Nedeljkovic has been awesome in his backup role so far this year. In theory, it should be harder to acquire a top pairing defenseman and a top six winger than the other depth pieces, yet here we are.
Ryan Graves has been a complete waste of 4.5M to this point. Noel Acciari, Matt Nieto, Jansen Harkins, and to a lesser extent Lars Eller have not done well enough. These are several misses on a team not really afforded many of them. So when will things be fixed? Perhaps not soon enough
Dubas: "I’m not going to make any decisions based on how we do this week or next week. When we get through the All-Star break and on the other side of that, we'll have a better idea of what we are as a group and where we need to go."
— Pens Inside Scoop (@PensInsideScoop) December 11, 2023
The All Star break is way too far away to assess the situation. I don’t think this is a situation where the problems are too difficult to suss out. The supporting players aren’t good enough and there need to be new ones. There is no evidence of the current depth players having a history of being all that much better than they’ve been this year other than maybe Eller. They are who they are.
Jesse Puljujarvi will be a work in progress coming off of his surgery.
Dubas on Puljujarvi: "Obviously, he's had a very significant operation and so that takes time to come back from. It's going to be a process here day-to-day to make sure we're putting him in the best positions, so when we do make a decision on him, he's able to withstand the…
— Pittsburgh Penguins (@penguins) December 11, 2023
Makes sense, this is his second double hip surgery. They need to do right by the process so he can be at his best physically whether that is for the Penguins are another team in the future.
The player available for trade is Jakub Vrana. I would love to endorse acquiring him, but he's been really bad this season and given his personal history I'm personally speculating hockey isn't the most important thing right now. He’s really fallen off from when the Blues initially acquired him. He has an xGF% of 40.89 this year and has only two goals and four assists in 20 games while being a healthy scratch for eight. This after he had ten goals in 20 games for the Blues when initially acquired.
Here is some context for Vrana’s play
I don't think that I would claim Jakub Vrà¡na from waivers. pic.twitter.com/e9rLDhtmLv
— Micah Blake McCurdy (@IneffectiveMath) December 11, 2023
Jakub Vrana will be placed on waivers. He's still a speedy scoring winger who creates off the rush, but when that's the one thing you do and the shots aren't going in that's a much tougher sell. #STLBlues pic.twitter.com/q8rr1o5ZtJ
— JFresh (@JFreshHockey) December 11, 2023
Was surprised to see Jakub Vrana on waivers — then I wasn't! wooooooooof pic.twitter.com/CijOGD2aJI
— dom 📈 (@domluszczyszyn) December 11, 2023
So the drop off hasn’t been great. I know both those posts make reference to waivers, but it was misreported at the time of their posts. Vrana is not on waivers.
I still might consider giving it a whirl. The Penguins are desperate and they aren’t going to get goals from their current lot of players. Vrana has at least shown the ability to score in recent memory. Not being on waivers actually works in the Penguins favor (or any other team’s favor). He currently carries a 2.6M cap hit due to the Red Wings retaining 50% from the trade last year. Hypothetically, you could get the Blues to retain another 50% dropping that to ~1.3M. I imagine the Blues would be fine with that in order to move on from the player. At 1.3M the Penguins aren’t exactly in a spot to be choosey with their options. I would throw another dart just like they did with Puljujarvi. What’s the worst that could happen? What already is?
Penguins have Arizona tomorrow night. They’ve lost four in a row. They kinda have to win this one.
Thanks for reading!