Last night 0-3 -3.40 Units YTD 125-109-2 +24.16 Units
Eleven games for us on this Thursday night! Huge match up with Vegas visiting Colorado and first place in the West Division on the line. You have the Blues/Wild battling it out for the 3rd/4th spot in West Division as well. Meanwhile the Bruins return from a week off due to covid issues as they hang on for the final playoff spot in the East Division with a huge match up with the Islanders who continue to lead the division.
As always, take a look at my gamenotes for tonight, I try to put info in there that will help anyone pick a side or total!
**I have started to research teams that come off at least a 5 game road trip and how they fare in their first game back home.** Its 6-4 to date.
Scenario #1 – Teams that are rested, either sitting at home or on the road while their opponent plays the night before. 11-4 over the last 2 weeks of tracking it! Hitting at 73% rate! As well, the under is a nice 8-6-1 in these spots! Toronto and St. Louis fit the system tonight.
Scenario #2 – Teams that are playing each other in back to back games, in which the home team loses the first game, the record of the home team in the second game is 59-35. Hitting at 63% success rate!
Scenario #3 – Teams playing back to back road games on consecutive nights tend to go under the total in the 2nd game. So far that trend is 23-21-1 when teams play on the road back to back nights. Buffalo/Pittsburgh fits the system tonight.
Scenario #4 - One last angle I am tracking that is slightly profitable and similar to Scenario #1, is when any team loses the first game of a back to back against the same team, regardless if it’s on the road or at home, those teams are 81-63 in that situation. Only hitting at 56% success rate.
Quick stat updates - First period totals going over were 2-3 last night and are 225-271 on the season. Road teams were 1-4 last night and are 231-258 on the season. Game totals going over the total were 3-2 last night and are 234-238-14 on the season.
Gamenotes for tonight –
NYI/Boston – Bruins off a one week layoff! Bruins have lost all 4 games to the NYI this season!
NYR/Philly – Last time they met, Rangers won 9-0! Flyers have to have this on their mind? They have split the first 4 games of the season with 3 going over the total.
NJ/Caps – Caps have won all 4 meetings this season with 3 going over the total.
Carolina/CLB – 4th straight game head to head, look for another tight defensive game. Teams have won split the first 4 games with 3 going under the total. Jackets trend is under at home vs. Canes.
Toronto/Ottawa – Leafs rested while Ottawa played last night. Play scenario #1. Teams have split the first 6 games this season. Sens are playing back to back nights, look for another defensive game. Last 4 Sens home games have gone under the total on this homestand after the first one went over. Sens playing 3rd game in 4 nights while Leafs haven’t played since Saturday night.
Buffalo/Pittsburgh – Pens have won all 3 meetings this season and are playing on back to back nights, play scenario #3.
STL/Minny – Blues sitting rested while the Wild played last night. Play scenario #1.
Florida/Chicago – Hawks finally beat the Panthers for the first time this season last game out.
Detroit/Nashville – Again, another odd stat…..Preds win, followed by a Detroit win, game #6 would mean Wings win after the Preds won last time out!
TB/Dallas – TB has won all 4 meetings, 3 going under the total. Dallas on a stretch of playing 8 games in 13 nights.
Vegas/Avs – All four games have gone under the total, with both winning two each.
System plays all for 1 Unit each –
Leafs – ML(-240) Leafs -1.5(-119) Columbus – ML(+140) St. Louis – ML(+105) Buffalo/Pittsburgh u6(even)
Playing these that are not system plays for 1 Unit each –
Boston – ML(-122) Rested and need to end the NYI dominance and Bruins are terrific at home, NYI not a great road team! Flyers – ML(-106) Strictly a revenge play after the thrashing they took by NYR last time out!
Feel free to ask any questions in the blog and I always get back to everyone. I will have Twitter and Instagram going shortly. Good luck tonight!
Puckpix