Thursday Think Tank: Trade Packages (Senators)

Senators

Thursday Think Tank: Trade Packages

By Trevor Shackles

Jan 31, 2019 • 1:41 pm

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New Think Tank just one day before the Senators finally get back into action after the All-Star break:

Trade return for Ceci

UPDATE:

Well then...It's only a matter of time, it appears.

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The Jake Muzzin trade created quite the buzz on Monday, as the Kings got a decent return for him, but the Leafs also didn’t give up anything too painful in the deal. That trade might have an effect on the Senators, as Darren Dreger thinks it could determine what they get in return for Cody Ceci:

For starters, I think it is hilarious that a top pairing player in Muzzin is the comparable in this situation and not Jamie Oleksiak, who was traded on the same day for just a 4th round pick. Ceci is nowhere near as good as Muzzin, and I’m sure even people who are the highest on him would admit the same. However, it’s pretty exciting thinking about getting anything close to the return that the Kings got for Muzzin.

I would be content with a draft pick in return, but perhaps Ottawa will be able to get a second rounder plus a good prospect. Now, it’s not a foregone conclusion that Ceci will be on the move, but there has been a lot of smoke surrounding his name recently, and although he is an RFA this summer, there haven’t been any talks about a possible extension. I just hope that Dorion finally pulls the trigger even if it is not a ridiculous package coming back because his value is going nowhere but down.

What about for Stone/Duchene?

Not much has changed on the Mark Stone and Matt Duchene fronts since last week, although in my head I was wondering about potential packages for them. They are not the same kind of player, but they’re on the same level in terms of status. I think a bare bones framework of a deal could be something like a 1st, a 2nd, and a top-five prospect within the system. For a comparable, Evander Kane was acquired for Dan O’Regan, a 1st, and a 4th, and he is certainly not as valuable as Stone or Duchene.

In another Sabres trade, Buffalo acquired Matt Moulson, a 1st, and a 2nd for Vanek, although he was a bit older at 29 at the time. Even a 39-year-old Martin St. Louis (along with a 2nd round pick) was able to give Tampa Bay Ryan Callahan, two first round picks, and a seventh. None of these examples are perfect comparisons because they are all older or worse than Stone and Duchene are, so in reality, the Senators should be getting a quality return if they decide to move either one of them or both.

If a team like Vegas calls, would they be willing to give up Erik Brannstrom and a couple of picks? It would be an interesting proposition. If not, I still think Ottawa should be able to get a 1st round pick and a very solid player or prospect at worst, which might be manageable depending on who that player is.

Options with Dzingel

All of a sudden, it looks like Ryan Dzingel might be a focus for Dorion in terms of a contract extension:

While I’m sure there will be conversations, I feel like he is more likely to be moved because he will surely be asking for a massive raise. It’s something to keep an eye on as the trade deadline inches closer though. Just a day before that, Elliotte Friedman had speculated on the return for Dzingel if he were to be moved:

“Dzingel, I think the market is decent,… indicated Friedman. “He could score 30 goals this year. So I think you’re going to have some interest, and I think they’re going to be able to do some things. People are always looking for scoring - always, always, always. Last year, what did Grabner go for - he went for a second-rounder and a prospect. I think that’s probably the kind of thing you’re looking at, and maybe higher because of the year he’s having.…

If that’s the base we’re going off of, that’s not too bad. Grabner is not Dzingel though, and I think it’s fair to expect a 1st (instead of a 2nd) plus a prospect, just because Dzingel is four years younger than Grabner was last year. He’s also enjoying a phenomenal season with 38 points in 48 games, and teams are going to foolishly evaluate recent success. I wouldn’t expect the prospect to be anything fantastic, but getting a first in return would be solid work by Dorion. There’s a good chance that at the age of 27, this is a career year for Dzingel, and it might be wise to cash in on the trade market before overpaying him. I’d love to keep him around because it feels like he’s just coming into his own, but it depends what the cost is. Plus if Duchene and/or Stone are being moved too, there’s no point in keeping Dzingel as well.

All-Star Game still missing...something

I wasn’t able to watch the skills competition at home, but I had the All-Star game on in the background. The skills is probably more interesting actually because you get to see more of their personalities and there are usually a few interesting moments like this one:

It is just never really compelling to watch, and it feels like it is missing something. The only thing is, I don’t have any solutions. If it was easy, they probably would have done something by now. The fact that they have tinkered with the weekend a few times in the past decade is a good sign, but it’s still hard getting people across North America tune into both competitions. I’m not here to say they’re missing something obvious, because I don’t know what I would do either. Perhaps no All-Star weekend for any leagues can ever live up to the hype.

Tracking data needs a purpose

The new tracking data that the NHL is implementing is extremely exciting. There are so many possibilities, and I’m hoping that we can see some great information like we see with MLB’s statcast. If the data is going to be public (as it seems like it will), then that will be a great step forward for analyzing the game. However, it’s important to cut out the noise and just focus on what is important. It’s great to show off what the tracking is capable of, but without context, it’s pointless.

I get that they were showing it off at the All-Star game, but seriously, what is the point of this?

We know who each player is, that’s not what this is supposed to be used for. I just have a feeling that the league won’t be implementing it properly or won’t be putting stats into proper context for people. For example, it doesn’t matter how fast Connor McDavid skates if we don’t know how fast the average player can skate. I’d love to see heatmaps for where players spend the most time, where they shoot, hit, block shots, pass, as well as data on who is the fastest, who has the hardest shot, and more precise shot metrics, but I have no desire to see something that says “oooh look! This guy is fast!… and that’s it.

The league has a huge opportunity here, and I hope they take advantage of it. It would be nice if the bridge between those who are pro-analytics and those who are against it could be closed.

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