We are just a week away from the NHL Trade Deadline and the Oilers currently find themselves in 3rd place in the Pacific Division but that changes daily depending on how the Oilers and other teams in the West do.
In order to get a better sense of how the Oilers might fair down the stretch, let's take a look at their last month and a half of play to see how they have stacked up against the rest of the NHL.
Since February 1st the Oilers are:
14th in the NHL in Point% with a 10-7-1 record 15th in EV goals with 33 11th in EV goals allowed with 30 6th in xGF% at 53.68% 8th in PP goals with 8 31st in PK goals allowed with 16 10th in SV% at 5 on 5 with a 0.924%
There is plenty to like and dislike here. Overall the Oilers are showing they are a "playoff team" in terms of their 5 on 5 play and finally getting some help from their powerplay. Koskinen has helped to stabilize the goaltending situation for the time being, going 4-1-1 in his last six starts with a 0.934SV%.
The bad news is of course the absolutely horrendous penalty kill. Fans can be a bit hopeful that things will round out there once RNH returns but still that is a brutal look for the Oil. The other bad news is simply the fact that in year 7 of McDavid's career we are still looking at this team as a simply average team that is trying to fight it's way into the playoffs as opposed to running the show like the top teams like Colorado, Florida, and sadly even Calgary.
Edmonton has almost zero dollars in usable cap space for the deadline and Ken Holland lacks the creativity to bring in a third team meaning any dollars that are coming in will mean dollars out. There are a few names that have been floated out by the Oilers media machine and those are worth paying attention to. Right now it seems like the only move that will be made by Holland will be another defenseman, likely a right shot. Two main names have come up:
Carson Soucy: The 27 year old left shot defender can play on either side but has spent much of this year on the right side. He is signed for one more season after this year at 2.75 million. Soucy ranks 5th on the team and 4th among defensemen in hits with 79 in 43 games. Soucy is more of a physical shut down player but he does have a scoring touch as well with 7 goals (6 at EV) and 14 points on the season.
In terms of quality of competition (courtesy of PuckIQ) Soucy is best suited at playing against similar grit competition; bottom six forwards and other third pairing D. In that role Soucy typically comes out on top. Against tougher competition, we do see the possession start to lean more towards his opponents but against elite opposition, Soucy has still managed to break even (7-7) in goals for and against at 5 on 5.
Overall Soucy would add the physicality and shutdown ability that Edmonton is clearly looking for in addition to his versatility of being able to play either side which would come in particular use if WC wants to run 11/7. Soucy shouldn't cost more than a mid level pick or low end prospect and gives the Oilers a player signed to another year, making him more than just a rental.
Justin Braun: Braun is an interesting player to look at because of how bad the Flyers have been this season. The 35 year old right shot defender is on the last year of his contract which pays 1.8 million. Braun's 78 hits in 59 games ranks 2nd among Flyers defense and 4th overall on the team. He averages over 20 minutes a game and has 5 EV goals on the season and 15 points. Unlike Soucy, Braun does play most of his minutes against elite competition but the numbers don't exactly scream success. This is where attempting to disconnect Braun from the Flyers comes in.
Braun plays the third most minutes against Elites on the Flyers at 337 minutes. The most played against Elites belongs to Provorov at 365 and then Sanheim at 343. Provorov has been outscored 9-15 in those minutes, Sanheim has been outscored 11-14 in his while Braun has been outscored 9-10. All of these players are getting outscored which is part of the reason the Flyers have been so bad but it's somewhat encouraging to see Braun holding close to even in those minutes.
Last season Braun played 314 minutes against Elites in 53 games and Philly outscored the opposition when he was on the ice 13-8. Braun is also a mainstay on the PK averaging 2:23 a game compared to Soucy who averages 1:26.
Spitballing here, I could see Edmonton offer something along the lines of Lagesson, Archibald, and a 3rd round pick next season in exchange for Braun. For this season, Braun is the better target who has more experience in tough playoff situations and can play heavier minutes. Soucy could be a useful option next season, but Edmonton has so many potential up and comers ready to compete for third pairing minutes that the 2.75 million dollar price tag could be spent better elsewhere.
What does this mean for the Oilers potential lineup going into the first round?
Assuming everyone is healthy once the playoffs begin, I could see Woodcroft deploying his lines as follows:
Hyman-McDavid-Puljujarvi Kane-Draisaitl-Yamamoto Holloway-RNH-Ryan Foegele-McLeod-Kassian Shore
Nurse-Braun Keith-Bouchard Broberg-Ceci Barrie
The most interesting thing of adding Braun would be what that means for Barrie and Bouchard. Ceci is arguably the team's best shutdown defender and won't be cut but Bouchard and Barrie bring similar talents yet have their warts. Bouchard is by far the better producer for the team at 5 on 5 but he is also making rookie mistakes which have led to grade A chances. The same can be said for Tyson Barrie as well.
Whether you agree with the sentiment or not, Holland will likely add one piece like Soucy or Braun and then call his deadline finished, citing Evander Kane as the other key "deadline acquisition" the team has made. While that is certainly a cop out, Edmonton will have added a top six forward and a top four defenseman to their team in the hopes of making a playoff push.
If this team does have playoff success, it will be off of the skill of the Oilers elite players, the hopeful depth surrounding them, and the play of Mikko Koskinen. A week from now we will see what this roster looks like.
Thanks for reading.