This isn’t exactly breaking news since it was talked about last week, but I never got a chance to touch on it, so I wanted to give my two cents on the Marcus Hogberg situation. Last week, Murray Pam found a Swedish article that indicated that the SHL team Orebro has interest in signing Hogberg for next season:
Interesting off-season situation to watch, à–rebro HK of #SHL has interest in signing pending #Sens RFA netminder Marcus Högberg. https://t.co/a6qA9sB7Ql
— Murray Pam (@Pammerhockey) March 21, 2019
Hogberg is an RFA this summer and will also be 25 in November, so he is obviously looking for a more permanent role moving forward, wherever that may be. Bruce Garrioch also said something a bit strange on the weekend in regards to his future:
Also said that If Hogberg has a good playoff run that he "could be brought back," implying that he might not be with the team next season. That would be incredibly stupid just because they have Anderson and Condon in the NHL
— Trevor Shackles (@ShackTS) March 23, 2019
I’m not sure what he meant by that, but the fact that Hogberg isn’t a shoo-in to return for 2019-20 makes no sense to me.
While this might be a somewhat unnerving development, the threat of him going back to the SHL is most likely a ploy by Hogberg’s agent, Walter Olsson, to get him a one-way contract for next season. Who knows if Hogberg and his agent will actually give the Senators an ultimatum, but no matter what he desires, there’s no excuse to not have him in the organization next season. I know some people might be hesitant to give him a one-way contract for next season (if that is what he will be asking for), but let’s go through why that would not be a big deal at all.
For starters, Ottawa is going to be terrible next year, just like they are this year. They will actually have their first round pick too, so 2019-20 will be a tanking sort of season. So Hogberg’s performance won’t really matter at all because him being good or bad for 20 games or so isn’t going to be the difference between them making the playoffs or not. Secondly, Ottawa has Craig Anderson and Mike Condon under contract for next season, plus pending UFA Anders Nilsson is also an option. None of them are starting goaltenders at this stage, and Nilsson isn’t even anything more than a mediocre backup. There are worse options than him, but he’s 48th in the league in SV% over the past four seasons (.908) and there is no need for a rebuilding team to commit to him over prospects ready to prove themselves.
Lastly, there would be no downside to having him on the NHL roster. He has proven himself to be a great goalie in the SHL, has been solid in the AHL this year, and deserves a chance in the NHL as a backup. Do I think he is a star goalie of the future? Not necessarily, but with goalies, you never really know. In an ideal situation, he proves to be a capable goalie and gives the Senators an option for moving forward. But even in the worst case scenario where he is in the NHL and Nilsson is let go, the downside is non-existent. Hogberg might struggle and never assert himself at the NHL level, but so what? As mentioned, the Senators have nothing to play for next season, and they might as throw things at the wall and see what sticks. Perhaps Nilsson has a good season elsewhere as a backup for 25-30 games, but he is not good enough to be a starter, nor is he (or Condon) ever going to be part of the long-term solution for the Senators.
It would be too bad if Hogberg struggles, but the potential downside for letting him walk would be much greater. Nilsson has a career .907 SV% (and .907% for this season), and he would probably end up somewhere in that range next season, potentially even worse. But there would also be the possibility that Hogberg goes back to the SHL, dominates, comes back to the NHL with a different team, then re-asserts himself as either a backup or a starter. And losing that kind of asset for nothing would be indefensible, especially because it is not as if Nilsson, 29, has some sort of untapped potential that we are waiting on.
Is Hogberg worth a one-way contract at this stage? No, but like I’ve said, the Senators don’t really have to go through any hardships to give him that. A one or two year contract would be well under $1M too, so it’s not as if money would be an issue, plus term would not be killing them if he suddenly becomes totally unplayable. Of course, the best situation is that he is willing to sign a two-way contract, but that might be tough for him knowing that Filip Gustavsson and Joey Daccord will most likely be in Belleville as well. The Senators don’t have to worry about any of this if they call the agents bluff and get him to accept a two-way contract, but as with anything surrounding this franchise, I have to be prepared for the worst.
Letting a young potential NHL goaltender walk away for nothing just because Anders Nilsson or Mike Condon needs to be the backup instead would be the pinnacle of poor asset management, and I hope Pierre Dorion will realize this.